My guess is that it's well below average because tributaries like the Animas and La Plata are flowing below their averages for this date....mostly because of the last big storm and cooler than average temperatures.
That median is also based off of lots of data from the pre-dam era so it biases the current reality a bit (92 year median with 54 years of a dam). I would wager for the last decade or more the mean is closer to 2000 cfs or lower this time of year for the lower San Juan.
Jealous of those with permits in May and June, granted at the forecast levels you could either section in a day.
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