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Discussion Starter #1
In this thread I will be posting 10 day forecasts for western rivers. This report replaces a report that was specific the Colorado River basin. The new report expands its coverage to select western rivers of greatest interest to the general rafting community.

The data is sourced from the River Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service.

I hope to have debugged by tomorrow data exchange issues resulting in the preventing of the decoding of forecast precip, temp and freezing elevation normally plotted on the Colorado Basin graphs.
 

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If I'm reading the two charts for Westwater and Cisco correctly (and I may be missing something), your predictions have an additional 4K in flow at Cisco at the spike between 5/1 and 5/2. The Westwater gauge is at the state line approximately 20 miles or so above Cisco and I'm wondering where that additional 4K would come from between those two points.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
DoStep,

Thanks for the opportunity to discuss the forecast hydrograph array. The hydrograph array is intended to promote the understanding and stimulate the discussion of western river status and dynamics.

Most of the extra 4K of flow is coming from the San Miguel via the Doloras. The Cisco gauge is below the confluence with the Doloras so the Colorado Cisco gauge includes that water.

The 10 day forecast hydrograph array is geographically arranged hence the Doloras gauge at Cisco is adjacent/below the Colorado gauge at Cisco. As the hydrograph array matures I will better define the geographic river basins with dark borders and perhaps arrows.

If I had more space I'd include the Doloras at Bedrock(~1K cfs) and San Miguel(~3K cfs) at Uravan gages. Including these gages would emphasis that you can run a lot of miles of high quality river right now without waiting for McPhee to spill.
 

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Ron...I may be digging too hard on your data for an upcoming trip, but what gives on your prediction on the Yampa (deerlodge) on May 14th at 6k and this one being higher (9k+)?

School my ass...
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Howdy Wack,

First let me make a disclaimer saying that both forecasts you compare are neither mine and actually they are both done by the same US government agency, the National Weather Service. In fact, on line, they are separated by one click of the mouse on the following NWS forecast website for Deerlodge Park;"Hydrograph" vs "Probability Information".

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/probability_information.php?wfo=gjt&gage=YDLC2&graph_id=0

As stated, the data plotted on my WESTERN RIVERS hydrograph array is a product of the National Weather Service. I have gone through considerable pain to process the data they allow for download. May I repeat, considerable pain. I kinda have to call it poaching. If they wanted to allow me to do it easily they'd at least made it f'in easier.

I only offer accurate forecasts, my own, when I'm invited on a Yampa trip launching that week:) or any week(just kidding).

The two "for-comparison" data sets(charts) are not out of agreement when examined closely. The data I plot from the NWS is a refinement of the most current conditions(today!) interpolated forward to generate a 10 day forecast in one hour increments. The bar chart hydrograph that you extract the 9K flow from is a "WEEKLY" statistical probability projected months forward. You've got a lot of averaging going on when considering the average flow for an entire week. However, when you draw the lines between the forecasts there is a perfect agreement.

Unfortunately, when smoothing to a weekly average, as presented on the bar histogram, you might miss a peak, such as a 20k spike for a day smoothed to perhaps 14K for the week on a histogram. It is just the way it is.

Let me know where my short explanation can be improved. I welcome any opportunity to discuss Western River flows. A further disclaimer, I'm a geologist. Although, I have intimate knowledge of data processing in most earth sciences. I will provide or seek an answer if I can.
 

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thanks for the clarification. I really appreciate the specificity you freely offer to the community. I see now I was looking at weekly averaged periods, and your great explanation helped. Kudos!
 
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