Not to keep beating the dead horse, but here is email follow up that I'm sure we all got:
"Hello,
The Salmon-Challis National Forest recognizes that the public is disappointed by the mistake that we made by accidently releasing unconfirmed Middle Fork lottery launch dates at midnight on March 16th prior to the 8:00am scheduled launch release. Obtaining a Middle Fork of the Salmon River permit is highly sought after and often a once in a life time opportunity. We sincerely apologize if this mistake affected you in any way and we are taking measures to ensure it won’t happen again. We have received additional questions and hope to clarify those below.
How will you guarantee that this mistake won't happen again?
We cannot guarantee that an error will never happen again, however we are taking steps to ensure that that this mistake doesn't happen again. Human errors occur. We do the best that we can and learn from these mistakes to ensure in the future that it won't be repeated.
How will this mistake be rectified? (Will there be another release?)
We do not intend on holding another lottery release. The permits that were released will stay awarded to those that obtained them.
What are ways I can try to obtain a Middle Fork of the Salmon River permit now?
Cancelled reservations are made available to the public randomly on
Recreation.gov within 24 hours of their cancellation date and time. However, cancellations for launches for Aug. 15 through Sept. 15 are not released in order to help protect spawning Chinook Salmon. For more information see
Cancellations and No Shows on the Middle Fork of the Salmon River.
I am concerned with the Recreation.gov process and lottery system.
In 2022 over 22,300 lottery applications were submitted to obtain one of the 332* available lottery control season permits for the Middle Fork. Interest and growth in whitewater boating, watercraft improvements and affordability, as well as population increases, are some of the reasons we are seeing an increasing number of applications for river permits and it becoming increasingly challenging to obtain a launch permit. Launch statistics can be found here
Salmon-Challis National Forest - Water Activities. Lottery result statistics can be found here
Salmon-Challis National Forest - Recreation Passes & Permits .
The Frank Church – River of No Return Wilderness Management Plan (Wilderness Plan) specifies how the Middle Fork River Permit Lottery and river permits are allocated. The Wilderness Plan can be found here
Salmon-Challis National Forest - Planning. Chapter two outlines the management of Middle Fork of the Salmon River float boating permits. This includes management details such as how canceled permits are released, the allocation of river permits between commercial and non-commercial river users, and other river management details.
Why not a weighted lottery System?
The Forest Service has looked into this possibility before and decided it wouldn't be the most equitable or efficient way of allocating these permits. While an individual would have some advantage over others with fewer points in a weighted lottery, any improvement in their chance of success would be miniscule. There are two reasons for this; the first is that the number of applicants is many times the number of available permits (in 2022 that was over 22,300 applications vs. 332* available permits). Secondly, other unsuccessful applicants will also receive the same favorable weighting (theoretically 22,000 other people with the same favorable weighting).
*
There are typically a total of 387 lottery permits available. The 332 number is how many lottery permits were available in 2022 (lower amount due to rollovers from the Boundary Creek Fire).
Sincerely,
Middle Fork of the Salmon River office"