[Badazws6]

Ok, so maybe I'm the only dork here that listens to NPR but yesterday I caught a piece where they had a forest ranger on saying he expected the Ark to peak twice as high as last year at about 6k. He went on spouting stuff about how this would be good for the commercials etc that I really missed because I was trying to picture 6k in granite/numbers with equal parts fear and excitement. Anyone else catch this?

So is 6k realistic or wildly optimistic?

MR

 

[Jahve]

"Rangers" love to spew like they know.. Funny... We kinda get used to it up here.. I bet this expert was a guide in Browns for maybe 2 years..:-D

6K only if we get 3+ more storms of 2+ feet... That was what it took in 95.. I was here and can remember the winter..

4K to 4500 if we are lucky for a peak and a long flow of 1500 to 3000 is more of a reality at this point..

Who knows if the warm temps keep up and if no storms come in April we could still have a average year here on the ark..

Who knows what april will bring but if you are spewing 6k as a peak you dont know what is going on...

 

[Dave Frank]

6K seems a little premature to be predicting. To get that, I think we need the snow to keep falling and then be followed by a heat wave or a big rain on snow event.

Think snow!

 

[DanOrion]

Chances of 6k depends on where you're at. 6k in RG, yeah, sure, could/will happen.

6k in Salida, perhaps...saw near 5k in 1995. How does the snowpack look in the collegiate peaks and near leadtown? More than 1995?

6k at Pine/Numbers? If so, the animals will be lining up in alphabetical order 2x2 if you know what I mean. Not too likely...I'll take bets.

Looking like a sicky-sicky runoff though. Psyched!

May be a long Ark season too: Aurora and Colo Spgs probably can't move their trans-basin water at high flows, and will be moving water post-runoff.

Here's how to search historical data:
CHeck the colo div of water website and find your gage:
Division

If DWR gage click published tabular data. If USGS gage click time series: daily data. You can then pull tabular data, bring it into excel and sort/analyze.

Oh, and NPR, yeah dorky. Dan Drayer = king of dorks.

 

[Jahve]

The only place the trans basin water hits a boatable section is down Lake! Good for us creekers but not too much of this water will even hit the ark..

The tunnel can run huge at all stages of runoff.. This is how Lake will get to about or over 2000 cfs this summer or why it will jump 300+ while you are on it with no warning..

From what I know most if not all of that water heads over the hills at Otero pump station.. Not much makes its way down the river..

Recreation flows start sometime in the middle of July if needed and last until the water runs out or Aug 15th.. Then they shut off any extra water comming in.. This is best for the fish..

Thats all we get...

Now if Pubelo is moving water or someone down south is movin water out of the upper lakes.. Then we will see more water in the ark..

As harv and some have said nobody who boats knows what is going to happen on the ark more than a day or two out..

 

[DanOrion]

Cspgs and Pueblo pull from Otero, but do they also run trans-basin water to Pueblo Res for later exchange back to the Otero pump station?

 

[Badazws6]

Wildly optimistic seems to be the consensus. Bummer.

 

[lmaciag]

"Bummer." WTF? It's still going to be a great season! Probably the best in 13 years.

 

[caverdan]

I wonder if Stone Bridge could take 6000csf?

 

[marko]

i am not even going to begin to guess what the ark will peak at because it is way too early to guess, but I can say that I am fired up because it will be the best season we have had in awhile. Even if it doesn't snow anymore we will have a good average runoff, and after being a part of the 2002 season I will be happy with average.

As for the 6000 thing. This is what I have heard from the people who experienced the 95 high water season, which I think might of gotten to 7000 in Browns (please correct me if Im wrong). We are currently very close to where the snowpack level was in 95. However, the reason the 95 season went so big was because it snowed a bunch in April and all the way into late May.

******* is right... we need 6+ more feet of heavy wet spring snow through April and May to even begin to see flows like the 95 season. I'm feeling optimistic that we will at least have an average April, which will make this season an incredible one regardless of whether we see 6000.

 

[COUNT]

Yeah, Brown's peaked around 6,500 in '95, I think.

 

[Nathan]

With all the snow falling late in 95 they weren't preparing for it like they are now. The ark is running right now to make room for runoff in the res. I would be surprised to see the ark ever hit 6000 again with all the controls unless there is another year like 95 with all the snow coming late. Having good water all year is better then having a 6000 peak anyways and it's looking like a good year.

 

[lmaciag]

Looks like 5500:

 

[caspermike]

three rocks above 3000 would be sweet to see, seen some video looks like a huge ass pourover ...... the amount of raft carnage!!!!!

 

[Cactus Jack]

I wonder if Stone Bridge could take 6000csf?

I've been boating the Ark since the late 70's. Saw the Ark at over 6000
in 84. Don't quote me on the exact Flow lost a few brain cells over the years. Could'nt get under Stone Bridge. Might need a submarine. Now that I Think about it back then that's what we had. There were only bucket boats on the river. The rebuilt Fisherman's Bridge is also about 2ft. lower then the old bridge.

 

[MCSkid]

People tend to forget that '90 thru '94 were all above average snow pack years. the res's and aquafers were all full and the soil was saturated, so when the melt off happened in '95 the water had no were to go but down the rio. What has it been, 10+ years since the ark drainage was above 100% of average snow pack. The amazing thing about '95 was that it hit 7,800 in the gorge, was 6,000 mid july and 2,000 on labor day. This year the snow pack is at 150%(1st of march, gotta be lower by now) coming off years of drought, so I doubt that it will get to 6,000. Maybe 4,000, which still equals kick ass boating, the best we've had in years!

 

[caverdan]

Looks like 5500:

I've been boating the Ark since the late 70's. Saw the Ark at over 6000
in 84. Don't quote me on the exact Flow lost a few brain cells over the years. Could'nt get under Stone Bridge. Might need a submarine. Now that I Think about it back then that's what we had. There were only bucket boats on the river. The rebuilt Fisherman's Bridge is also about 2ft. lower then the old bridge.

Thanks for finding that graph, lmaciag. I thought it stayed below 6000 that year in Browns. I remember the river being quite close to the bottom of Stone Bridge and there was some worry of loosing it if it came up much higher. I thought it funny they built the take out on the downstream side. Is there still an area to take out, upstream of Stone Bridge?
Anyone fair to guess what and when the the flow will peak at in Browns this year? I'm guessing 5200 on June 23rd.

 

[MCSkid]

5,200 on june 23rd. I'm callin' your boy tony t and havin him cut you off! either that or I want some!

 

[caverdan]

Dammittt........I hate being cut off......

 

[Jahve]

The guage was broken in browns for most of the highest water in 95'..

You could just drop a raft off the rail at fish bridge and into the water in 84'..

If and it is a big IF it gets to 95 levels you cannot get under Fish or Stone bridge.. Maybe with a kayak but not a raft..