Joined
·
1,798 Posts
So do you guys have all your hook ups apply for the same dates as you or? I’ve always just done it alone but now have a couple people in lol.
120 people per day is correct. Commercial = 60 and private = 60. Don't expect solitude during the busy season.
The number of available permits listed in the email isn't actually the number available during the lottery season. Take the MFS for example. There are a little under 400 private permits during the lottery season, not the 681 listed. Average odds are about 1 in 65. The odds are much better or worse depending on the dates you pick. The Main Salmon is closer to 300 lottery permits per season.
Does anyone else think about a 1 in 65 chance with a $6 entry basically means the value of the permit is $400? How much would you pay for a guaranteed permit?
The Rogue permit allocation system is unique and I also don't mind. Getting a camp with a larger group in the summer can be a PITA . Rabbit boats are common, even with private groups. Just know what to expect. The current permit system on the Rogue benefits me. I never apply for a Rogue permit. I live close enough to the river and there are enough last minute cancellations that I can go just about any time I want.Ah, duh. Thank you. I weirdly like the summer crowds. I wouldn’t want to recreate this permit system across the board, but it lends itself to a unique river culture that I don’t mind.
What is a "rabbit boat"?Rabbit boats are common, even with private groups.
Sending one boat out very early in the morning to get to and claim a desirable camp (with the bulk of the group arriving later in the day).What is a "rabbit boat"?
And it's actually legal for both commercial and private trips to split the group as long as each part of the group has a copy of the permit. They give you two copies. The Rogue has some unique rules. Rabbit boats can be frustrating, and it's just part of the experience. You probably shouldn't go. It's truly awful. Nobody should go. They should just close up all the commercial outfits and....Sending one boat out very early in the morning to get to and claim a desirable camp (with the bulk of the group arriving later in the day).
Aha. Well, nothing stopping you from pulling in with your whole group and just camping all around whatever they’ve set up.Sending one boat out very early in the morning to get to and claim a desirable camp (with the bulk of the group arriving later in the day).
Here's the math. We'll just take the Middle Fork numbers. 681/22586 = 3.0% or 1 out of 33, i.e. between 1 out of 20 and 1 out of 40. Some are easier (Snake) and some are harder (Selway).I couldn’t make your math work. It looks like you were taking a single persons chance to win the lottery and multiplying it by the number of people in your permit party. With a large permit party you end up with like 150% chance of winning, which we know isn’t true. I spent about two hours on this, but my college statistics is 30 years old, don’t have a clue now.
No, there is no guarantee. You might flip tails twice. But the odds of that are 25%. (i.e. 1/2 x 1/2). but you have a 75% chance of getting heads at least once.Exactly. Statistics doesn't quite work like that. If you flip a coin twice, you are not guaranteed that at least one of the results will be "heads."
But, if you buy every single lottery number for a big draw, you are guaranteed to win. Some guy did that. He didn't quite get them all. He paid a bunch of people to put in as many combinations as there are possibilities for the lottery. I think he did it more than once before they changed the rules and made that verboten.
Unfortunately, that is not quite how probability works. If your probability of winning is 1/33, your probability of not winning is 32/33. Your probability of not winning on all 10 applications is (32/33)^10. Your probability of winning at least once on ten applications is the opposite, 1-(32/33)^10 or 8.7/33. For 5 people with 10 applications each, the odds of at least one win is 26/33. You also have decent odds of multiple wins.Here's the math. We'll just take the Middle Fork numbers. 681/22586 = 3.0% or 1 out of 33, i.e. between 1 out of 20 and 1 out of 40. Some are easier (Snake) and some are harder (Selway).
Now, if I apply to 10, what are my odds of winning something? 10/33. That is to say, on average I'll win 1 out of every 3 years. There's no guarantee I'll win every 3 years. I might win twice in a year. I might not win for 10 years. But on average, my odds are winning 1 out of every 3 years with that approach.
Now, take 5 other friends doing the same thing. Now our odds to win in a given year are 50/33. So I'm now likely to win at least once a year. So yes, you have a 150% chance of winning. Why would you say that isn't true? It seems true to me. On average, my group of friends gets a permit or two every year, i.e. a greater than 100% chance of winning something.
I'm still not sure that you're right and I'm wrong. According to this:Unfortunately, that is not quite how probability works. If your probability of winning is 1/33, your probability of not winning is 32/33. Your probability of not winning on all 10 applications is (32/33)^10. Your probability of winning at least once on ten applications is the opposite, 1-(32/33)^10 or 8.7/33. For 5 people with 10 applications each, the odds of at least one win is 26/33. You also have decent odds of multiple wins.
I'd also point out that the numbers in the email are not the number of permits available in the lottery season for private groups. The MFS typically has 387 private lottery permits in a season or about 1/60 odds (assuming a similar number of people apply as in 2021).
Yeah, that equation gives the same answer. You didn't subtract the last term P(A and B).I'm still not sure that you're right and I'm wrong. According to this:
Multi-event Probability: Addition Rule - Data Science Discovery
Data Science Discovery is a introduction to Data Science and related topics by The University of Illinois.discovery.cs.illinois.edu
When calculating the probability of either one of two events from occurring, it is as simple as adding the probability of each event and then subtracting the probability of both of the events occurring:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Which would suggest you add the probabilities. Which makes intuitive sense to me.
Well said and totally agree. We should get some tech and business savvy buzzards together to start a non-profit version of rec.gov and convince the powers that be to let us take over the contract from Booz Allen Hamilton. The fact that a for-profit company is optimizing a public lands reservation system for maximum number of applicants in order to move the needle on their own revenue is, as you said, complete bullshit.Complete bullshit. They manage this site likes its private forgetting completely that they're managing public lands. The point isn't to get them their $6 per applicant, its to fill the permits. I think land managers should make a Trip Leader certification or other limiting factor to a. control the total amount of applicants, and b. ensure that the person holding the permit knows what they're doing. Of course res.gov has no interest in that concept cuz they want their $6.
Do you really have to subtract it since that outcome (getting two permits) would still be considered a success? I don't think you do.Yeah, that equation gives the same answer. You didn't subtract the last term P(A and B).
Yes, all three terms in the equation are necessary. In some cases, the last term is zero but that is not the case with these lotteries.Do you really have to subtract it since that outcome (getting two permits) would still be considered a success? I don't think you do.