[Nanko]

Is it not 120/ day, so 18k+ permits? Why am I confused?

Permits on the Rogue are counted much differently than other rivers. Like Mr. Amette said, there are 60 non-commercial user days allocated each day. Yes there could be 60 launch permits on one day if 60 people got a permit and went on one person trips. In reality, folks go in groups and about 10-15 groups launch per day, depending on the size of the groups.

 

[Riverlife]

I think that the numbers reflect the number of non commercial launches allocated.

 

[Will Amette]

Marketing is the name of the game. Apply earlier in the season and your odd's are way better, don't you know.

I almost posted nearly the same thing; they should have sent the e-mail out on the first hour of the first day the lotteries opened. I mean, LOOK - only ten people have applied so far!

 

[tBatt]

Just sent in my donation.

I've applied for the 4Rivers(I think) 23 of the last 25 years.
Big ole goose egg.
Oh well.
Can't win if you don't apply!

Y'all gotta quit applying for the 3rd Sunday/Monday of June.

 

[Wadeinthewater]

Is it not 120/ day, so 18k+ permits? Why am I confused?

120 people per day is correct. Commercial = 60 and private = 60. Don't expect solitude during the busy season.

 

[NoCo]

I got my rejection letters already. Got to hand it to wreck.gov they're showing some initiative this year.

 

[ChadRafter]

The number of available permits listed in the email isn't actually the number available during the lottery season. Take the MFS for example. There are a little under 400 private permits during the lottery season, not the 681 listed. Average odds are about 1 in 65. The odds are much better or worse depending on the dates you pick. The Main Salmon is closer to 300 lottery permits per season.

Does anyone else think about a 1 in 65 chance with a $6 entry basically means the value of the permit is $400? How much would you pay for a guaranteed permit?

 

[Riverlife]

Does anyone else think about a 1 in 65 chance with a $6 entry basically means the value of the permit is $400? How much would you pay for a guaranteed permit?

Let’s just be glad that Ticketmaster doesn’t handle river permit sales. That cost would probably go a lot higher than $400 if they were ever allocated on a for profit basis.

 

[kneth]

The wonderful folks at Downriver Equipment in Denver have excellent success percentage charts for permits here: https://www.downriverequip.com/blog_detail.cfm?blogId=104
I've had good luck on the high water times for the Middle Fork. Once we launched right after they re-opened the river, and it all looked very different, some rapids easier and some just weird. We had lots of time in camp on that trip...

 

[no1kobefan]

We need point system like the Grand. Not perfect, but probably better than we currently have.

 

[SomeYeahoo]

I think it's still worth applying.

You've got a 1/20-1/40 chance per river. I apply for about 10 or so. That makes me likely to draw out every 2-4 years. But my wife is also applying. So now I'm likely to draw out on something every 1-2 years. And I've got 5-10 friends putting in too that are likely to invite me along. So that means every year I probably get to do a couple of trips. Which is precisely what I did last year (Deso and the Main) and about as many weeks as I have to dedicate to river trips.

Sure, it would be nice if I could just show up and float a river any time I want and never see anyone else. But all of you schmucks are messing that up for me so what are we going to do besides this?

Great thread though. Nice to finally see the data.

 

[ChadRafter]

You've got a 1/20-1/40 chance per river. I apply for about 10 or so. That makes me likely to draw out every 2-4 years. But my wife is also applying. So now I'm likely to draw out on something every 1-2 years. And I've got 5-10 friends putting in too that are likely to invite me along. So that means every year I probably get to do a couple of trips. Which is precisely what I did last year (Deso and the Main) and about as many weeks as I have to dedicate to river trips.

I'm familiar with the four rivers lottery. Here is the most recent data that is made available by the forest service adjusting for the COVID rollovers that impacted 2021. These are averages of the whole lottery season. If you pick more popular times, your odds are much less.

Odds of getting at least one winning application:
Middle Fork: 1/60 for one application, 1/12 for a five applications
Main Salmon: 1/60 for one application, 1/12 for a five applications
Selway: 1/150 for one application, 1/30 for a five applications
Snake: 1/20 for one application, 1/4 for a five applications

All Four Rivers: 1/10 for one application, 1/3 for five applications (and you are most likely winning the Snake)

Let me know if there is interest. I can also check your estimated probability of winning a lottery by dates for 2023.

 

[craven_morhead]

I just came in to link the blog post kneth posted. Great resource.

 

[portermoab]

Just sent in my donation.

I've applied for the 4Rivers(I think) 23 of the last 25 years.
Big ole goose egg.
Oh well.
Can't win if you don't apply!

Too bad it’s not actually a donation for better land/river management. It just goes straight into the pocket of Booz Allen Hamilton for running the system. Just good ol’ government third party contracting. Everyone loses!

 

[smhoeher]

Unfortunately, this is what we’re dealing with right now. This is why we decided to take a commercial trip on the MFS.
Those who haven’t put in for permits , don’t. It’ll give me a slight chance.

 

[yogibear]

Here is a graph of the increasing number of applicants for 4 rivers.

What do you all attribute the huge (4x) increase in applications to? I haven't applied for a river permit in a dozen years, so this is all shocking to me. Are there 4x as many boaters as there were in 2010? Doubt it. I'm guessing that it's the internetification of everything that has made it that much easier to apply for permits. The last time I applied, I went to a permit party where we all filled out the permits on pieces of paper, the put them in envelopes along with a paper checks for the application fees, put stamps on those envelopes, and then finally mailed them in using the USPS. I.e., it was a lot more of a pain than using the internet and it helped to assure that you actually wanted to do a river a trip.

 

[uh eau]

I assume they are counting the people, not the permits, on the Rogue. 120/day total. Figure 1/2 commercial @ 180 days is 10,800. Close enough.

 

[VanDave]

I think it's still worth applying.

You've got a 1/20-1/40 chance per river. I apply for about 10 or so. That makes me likely to draw out every 2-4 years. But my wife is also applying. So now I'm likely to draw out on something every 1-2 years. And I've got 5-10 friends putting in too that are likely to invite me along. So that means every year I probably get to do a couple of trips. Which is precisely what I did last year (Deso and the Main) and about as many weeks as I have to dedicate to river trips.

Sure, it would be nice if I could just show up and float a river any time I want and never see anyone else. But all of you schmucks are messing that up for me so what are we going to do besides this?

Great thread though. Nice to finally see the data.

I couldn’t make your math work. It looks like you were taking a single persons chance to win the lottery and multiplying it by the number of people in your permit party. With a large permit party you end up with like 150% chance of winning, which we know isn’t true. I spent about two hours on this, but my college statistics is 30 years old, don’t have a clue now.

 

[Will Amette]

I couldn’t make your math work. It looks like you were taking a single persons chance to win the lottery and multiplying it by the number of people in your permit party. With a large permit party you end up with like 150% chance of winning, which we know isn’t true. I spent about two hours on this, but my college statistics is 30 years old, don’t have a clue now.

Exactly. Statistics doesn't quite work like that. If you flip a coin twice, you are not guaranteed that at least one of the results will be "heads."

But, if you buy every single lottery number for a big draw, you are guaranteed to win. Some guy did that. He didn't quite get them all. He paid a bunch of people to put in as many combinations as there are possibilities for the lottery. I think he did it more than once before they changed the rules and made that verboten.

 

[skipowpow]

Are there 4x as many boaters as there were in 2010? Doubt it.

I would say yes there are. You’re also right that easier accessibility to the process has increased the number of permit applications.