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222 Posts
Dang. For all those who wondered. Just got this from Rec.gov in an email
![Font Rectangle Parallel Number Circle]()
Statistics!! Like for rivers and permits and stuff
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721 Posts
Yep. I just got that. Makes me a little peeved. Whatever. Already got some of the applications in, but they didn't even bother to think about that. Well, good luck everyone. I'd rather see river people get the permits that random people who think it's a good idea to get a permit and have no clue. Money grab.
The picture on the e-mail that's not on this post is a bunch of commercial customers on a commercial trip in a paddle raft with no gear smiling and getting splashed. Just like the Selway. It's as bad as that picture at the top of Mt. Buzz pages that Andy H. was trying to get changed a year or so ago....
![Water Watercraft Nature Boats and boating--Equipment and supplies Helmet]()
The picture on the e-mail that's not on this post is a bunch of commercial customers on a commercial trip in a paddle raft with no gear smiling and getting splashed. Just like the Selway. It's as bad as that picture at the top of Mt. Buzz pages that Andy H. was trying to get changed a year or so ago....
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721 Posts
Nope. That's correct. There's 153 days in the lottery control season. There's 60 non-commercial permits per day. That adds up to 9160 user days if my bad math is close to correct.
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1,341 Posts
Everybody is just waiting until the last minute to apply. I’d wager that those numbers are headed up in the next couple of weeks.
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222 Posts
Man. Some quick math shows a 0.006-3% chance for most of the these. Makes me super grateful to have at least done some of them. Never drawn, just picked up cancellations, gone out of season, or got invited.
Wonder what the numbers are for the Smith?
Wonder what the numbers are for the Smith?
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945 Posts
Permits on the Rogue are counted much differently than other rivers. Like Mr. Amette said, there are 60 non-commercial user days allocated each day. Yes there could be 60 launch permits on one day if 60 people got a permit and went on one person trips. In reality, folks go in groups and about 10-15 groups launch per day, depending on the size of the groups.
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30 Posts
The best part, if you don’t draw you can just pay and go on a commercial trip.
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1,227 Posts
That’s the only photo they had that was “diverse” enough to put on a government website.
I had no idea the numbers were that bad. I might win the actual lottery before that one.
💩
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639 Posts
If I win the Mega Millions 1.1B, I'll just buy the Middle Fork, and forget the drawings.
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836 Posts
If I'm not mistaken, the probability of drawing a permit are even worse than at first glance. First your name needs to be drawn and THEN there needs to be a permit remaining on one of the four dates you chose. If not, you're out of luck. Apply for any of the highest demand dates and the chance of there being 1 of the 3 or 4 permits still available? Rounded to a whole number expressed as a percentage = 0% chance or thereabouts. 27 years of applying for the Main and I've drawn exactly 1x.......
Rec.gov sending out the fancy don't forget to apply brochure email - why not, every application = positive cash flow....
Rec.gov sending out the fancy don't forget to apply brochure email - why not, every application = positive cash flow....
👍.…or buy out a commercial outfitter that runs all the rivers you and your friends want to get on and take a few trips ”at a loss”. 😉
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6,252 Posts
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975 Posts
Just sent in my donation.
I've applied for the 4Rivers(I think) 23 of the last 25 years.
Big ole goose egg.
Oh well.
Can't win if you don't apply!
I've applied for the 4Rivers(I think) 23 of the last 25 years.
Big ole goose egg.
Oh well.
Can't win if you don't apply!
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639 Posts
Marketing is the name of the game. Apply earlier in the season and your odd's are way better, don't you know. 
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