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Discussion Starter #1
Hey all,
Wondering what the Buzzards think of the chances of the Salt running this year. I see that most of the snowtel stations in the White Mountains are at or below 50 percent, and not sure what that translates into on the Salt. Any beta much appreciated!
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Ahh, I see. Your numbers do look much better.

I was looking at this map, and hovering over each station and seeing the percentile (POR) which was at or around 50 for most stations that I was guessing were considered to be within the White Mountains.

I was interpreting this as 50% percentile of SWA, but it was actually the SWA being ~83% that is at the 50th percentile, not the actual SWA.

Thanks for catching that. Makes me want to snag a Salt permit this year!

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/quickLinks/imap/!ut/p/z1/pZExb4MwEIV_SwfG-o6EErebw5CkRErbpAm5JTKUAlIwCDux-u9LxZqaSr3Bks_fe_esA4IESMlrVUhTNUqe-_uRwtNqwsWSbzFeREGA4jGa7dbbGcZvD3BwArsQqH_mPAr8TYBrjFHga8Tjfbjc-5uXyYh-jn_T4y8lBv1ofscA-s__e4Dc8Q5AYwg5M8zHgJ8dOIGpD89AxblJh4ULlU55AdTln3mXd-zS9e3SmFY_eeihtZbZLGOqyzS76A_JiubqoVaNHc5TLVtWmvqmWdloA8lND2jr974SrFb3lH7Zu282F_6j/dz/d5/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/#version=102&elements=&networks=!&states=!&counties=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=all&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=false&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=&basinOpacity=100&basinNoDataOpacity=100&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=station&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8&parameter=PERCENTILE&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&year=2019&month=1&day=29&monthPart=E&forecastPubMonth=1&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&seqColor=1&divColor=3&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1981&referenceEnd=2010&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&lat=34.0470&lon=-109.6243&zoom=9.0
 

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thanks for sharing the link, I was having trouble finding the link for SWE.
Now we just need someone to explain the difference between snowpack and snow water equivalent, using no more than 2 sentences. it is going to be a great AZ season right?
 

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FWIW

Greetings Fellow Travelers:

Here is a little reminder that there are only a couple of days left to apply for permits to raft the Upper Salt River in Arizona, as well as many of the rivers in the west. Sorry this reminder is coming to you so late, but I was out of touch in furghloughlandia. The application period closes January 31st, so don’t delay if you wish to apply. To do so go to rec.gov and search for Salt River Canyon Wilderness Permit.

Here are some websites if you want to check up on our snow pack, flows, or weather:

The website for SNOTEL data is: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/
For the Salt River, under Snow (SNOTEL and Snow Course) click on “Data”. Click on “Daily SWE Report-Current Water Year: By SNOTEL Site”. Click on the drop-down list of states for Arizona and then scroll down to the “Hannigan Meadows” site. Simple, no? Sometimes I also look at “Baldy” which is also in the Salt River Basin. The historic values are also on this site if you want to compare to other years.

For website for current streamflow data in Arizona is: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/current/?type=flow
Scroll down to the Salt River Basin. The put-in is “Salt River Near Chrysotile” and the take-out is “Salt River Near Roosevelt”.

If you want someone smarter than me to predict the river level, this is the website for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/ Click on the blue dot for “SLC: Salt, Chrysotile, NR” and view the forecast. Click on the forecast if you wish to change the parameters of the prediction.

I usually look at the weather forecast for the coming week on this webpage right before I leave town: http://www.weather.com/maps/planner

Or there is this colorful one from NOAA: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/goes-w.html

Currently, at Hannagan Meadows the SNOTEL is showing 6.9 inches of snow water equivalent (swe). This is an El-Nino year, which typically helps out the Upper Salt River Basin snow pack, and we seem to be on the storm track to some degree. They are calling for a storm this weekend and I have a pretty good feeling that, with all of February to go, we should end up with 10 to 15 inches swe, giving us a fair to good season when March rolls around. Of course, I continue to be wrong about things I predict with ridiculous frequency.

As a point of comparison, in 2017 we peaked out at 10 inches swe and it was above 1,000 cfs for all of March (peaking around 2,000), and above 500 for most of April.

If you are going to apply, thanks in advance for the portion of your application fee that we get use to run our small, happy, effective river crew.

Thanks, and good luck.


Forest Service Shield

Don R. Sullivan
Wilderness River Manager
Forest Service
 

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thanks for sharing the link, I was having trouble finding the link for SWE.
Now we just need someone to explain the difference between snowpack and snow water equivalent, using no more than 2 sentences. it is going to be a great AZ season right?
SWE is the inches of water in the snow-pack if the snow-pack is melted.

Does one sentence suffice?
 

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Striving to persevere as an experienced prognosticator, below is my best guess for future Salt flows using the 2016 equivalent of current conditions from the NRCS Snow-to-Flow crystal ball guesstimator and incorporating NOAA Outlooks (best graphically expressed by the Weather Channel "Planner").

Peak will be about 3K cfs the last week of February.

Anyone else care to roll the dice or place their bets? Considering that I don't have a first born to wager(wouldn't likely be worth much anyway, ooooo, my business partners the "cats" are giving me a dirty look,,, they are not part of any wager.),,,,, I have nothing to lose.

Always remember, applying for a Salt permit goes directly to a good cause. It is my understanding that application fees go directly to supporting river ranger processes that represent of our best interest and maintenance of a clean river corridor.
 

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Now, someone might ask. "WHAT MAKE YOU THINK 3K CFS THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY?".

Well send $10.95 to .... address and I'll tell you why? And there-in is the basis of the creation of the World Wide Web, information at a cost.

Well, actually, if anyone is interested I'll tell you why just let me know so that I just don't feel like prognosticating is pissing away my time.
 

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ron, damnit, you're talking to yourself again!! You need to get out of the house! Come down anytime and we'll go for a float. A lil slushy right now but its water.

I'm waiting for the flag boys to give me the call so i can head down for a run. They are thinking same as you with a few storms set up to roll in the next couple weeks back to back. Lemme know if you wanna go. You could come stay here, then we could head out in the am. 9-10 hrs from here depending on how many old man piss breaks you need..
 

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Yep...I'll be gearing up to Jump on it tomorrow...hope my new boat either hasn't shipped(so I can pick it up in person) or it shipped today (so it gets here tomorrow) :D
 

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3630 at Chrisotile right now, get on it boy's!!!
 

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Up to 4330 now. Not likely to hold though. The storm moving through looks like it will taper off tomorrow. I'm good for a Friday morning launch if she holds water.
 

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Unless it tanks overnight, I'm sprinting down there and we are gonna launch on Thursday for a two night "no frills" mostly self support trip. It has stopped raining for tonight...but its supposed to start again tomorrow so should stay up at raftable levels through the weekend.
 

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Hey all,

Wondering what the Buzzards think of the chances of the Salt running this year. I see that most of the snowtel stations in the White Mountains are at or below 50 percent, and not sure what that translates into on the Salt. Any beta much appreciated!


I don’t think it will run this year. You should decline your permit if you win. No reason to waste your $.
 

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Was up there Sunday for a day run to Hoodoo RAP and it was great! Running about 1100 cfs. Peaked closer to 3000 earlier in the week. SherpaDave, I think it should run fine this year, snowpack is at about average.
 

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