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Salt Predictions this Week

5215 Views 73 Replies 23 Participants Last post by  mania, 
E
Anyone familiar with the Salt willing to give their predictions what will happen in the next few days? I know river flow forecasting is a rough guess at best. Forecasts were showing it dropping today and tomorrow to around 3500 now the opposite of 8,000-10,000. Supposed to launch tomorrow. Thoughts?
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Quiggle
Big Wave said:
The forecast was for 16,000 it only made it to 13700 at 4:30 pm on the 16th at the gauge. Down to 8,900 on Friday at 1:00.
Don’t let the facts ruin their story.
Glad they had good recoveries but had they really been on 16,000 the outcome might have been different.
I’m not trying to diminish the accomplishments of any groups that commit to running it this high and succeed. Just trying to put out accurate info so this week someone doesn’t think true 16,000 is real doable.
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you should be using the gauge at Roosevelt if you want to nickel and dime the flow claim. Lots of side tributary’s have come in by the time you get to quartzite.
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Big Wave
Quiggle said:
you should be using the gauge at Roosevelt if you want to nickel and dime the flow claim. Lots of side tributary’s have come in by the time you get to quartzite.
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Yea whatever. I think most people use the Chrysotile gage but if you want to make it more confusing go for it.
I was just trying to help out.
I’d say the difference between 9,000 and 16,000 is more like a dollar.
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Gunnyraft
I use Roosevelt for high water season and Christole for low water season. For reasons Quiggle explains.
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D
There was a lot of precipitation with an inch or more of rain Wednesday night, water rose fast and furious, it was coming in from all sources so likely neither gauge was accurate, my figures were interpolated from the Chrysotile gauge and figuring out the time it took to get there based on the >6mph velocity we were seeing and I didn't include tributary contributions. So my 9-10K estimate in Quartzite could very well be low. Whatever it was was screaming and was high water conditions, even the ~6K we launched on was really spicy going around the big bend at the start. If you aren't familiar with the joys of flood stage you should skip the trip until it gets back down to 5K or below. I knew Big Wave cancelled for the Wed launch, it seems like most probably cancelled their Thursday launches too, we did not see anybody else after two small groups that launched ahead of us and the NM group that had the lion issue all rowed by but I suppose they could've laid over above rapids and waited for the flow to subside. But we didn't see anyone for 3 nights/4 days.

Looks like another big gush is approaching, bring your A Game if you decide to go.
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A
Big Wave said:
Yea whatever. I think most people use the Chrysotile gage but if you want to make it more confusing go for it.
I was just trying to help out.
I’d say the difference between 9,000 and 16,000 is more like a dollar.
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The Salt is a gaining river, sometimes dramatically. In 2019, it was 16,500 cfs at Chrysotile and 35,000 cfs at Roosevelt. If you went by the put-in gage, you'd be way off on the flows at Quartzite/Corkscrew.
The math to interpolate isn't too hard: RiverMile/52 x (RooseveltFlow - ChrysotileFlow) + ChrysotileFlow = FlowEstimate

Flows predicted to be almost 14k cfs at the put-in and 22k cfs on 3/23 at the takeout.


If my math works, that'll mean:
31.75/52 x (22-14) + 14 = 18.884 k cfs peak flow at Quartzite on 3/23
I would layover above that one. Be careful out there.
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Quiggle
2019 was a great time down there. Wishing I could make it down there this year.
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Big Wave
adamread said:
The Salt is a gaining river, sometimes dramatically. In 2019, it was 16,500 cfs at Chrysotile and 35,000 cfs at Roosevelt. If you went by the put-in gage, you'd be way off on the flows at Quartzite/Corkscrew.
The math to interpolate isn't too hard: RiverMile/52 x (RooseveltFlow - ChrysotileFlow) + ChrysotileFlow = FlowEstimate

Flows predicted to be almost 14k cfs at the put-in and 22k cfs on 3/23 at the takeout.


If my math works, that'll mean:
31.75/52 x (22-14) + 14 = 18.884 k cfs peak flow at Quartzite on 3/23
I would layover above that one. Be careful out there.
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Sure you’re correct. Our group had decided to not run at over 7,000 at the Chrysotile gage.I learned a big lesson from DoStep about running on the low and waiting out the high. Quiggle suggested the same. But if you put on at 16,000 on the Chrysotile gage you’ll probably make it fine because for some reason the river gods are merciful to the ignorant and punishes the wise who go against their better judgment.
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A
Big Wave said:
Sure you’re correct. Our group had decided to not run at over 7,000 at the Chrysotile gage.I learned a big lesson from DoStep about running on the low and waiting out the high. Quiggle suggested the same. But if you put on at 16,000 on the Chrysotile gage you’ll probably make it fine because for some reason the river gods are merciful to the ignorant and punishes the wise who go against their better judgment.
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Fair enough. If you go at high water, ignorance is unlikely to be bliss. As others have said, you need a tight group and need to have your game on. I had an epic swim at 9000 cfs early in my kayaking journey on the day section. Maybe I'm just an idiot to keep at it. It's so pretty there in the spring that it's hard to resist though.

It's interesting how some things are easier and some things are harder in floods. For instance, the Maze was a literal maze of huge rocks in early January at 1000 cfs or so. At 7 or 8k last week, it was totally washed out. Ledges was huge, but there was an easy no splash sneak on the right. Overall, I think that the difficulty in stopping if something goes wrong is probably one of the greatest hazards for rafts at high flows.
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Big Wave
adamread said:
Fair enough. If you go at high water, ignorance is unlikely to be bliss. As others have said, you need a tight group and need to have your game on. I had an epic swim at 9000 cfs early in my kayaking journey on the day section. Maybe I'm just an idiot to keep at it. It's so pretty there in the spring that it's hard to resist though.

It's interesting how some things are easier and some things are harder in floods. For instance, the Maze was a literal maze of huge rocks in early January at 1000 cfs or so. At 7 or 8k last week, it was totally washed out. Ledges was huge, but there was an easy no splash sneak on the right. Overall, I think that the difficulty in stopping if something goes wrong is probably one of the greatest hazards for rafts at high flows.
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I feel like I’m redundant here if you can’t or more importantly don’t want to deal with a high water flip, swim, epic adventure and life changing for good or bad experience don’t launch above 7,000.
I swam plenty of times and ran plenty of big water when I was young so that I don’t need to or want to do that anymore especially not on the Salt at flood. The Salt kicked my ass and had me wondering about my skills more than any other river at - 1,000. That was a decade ago.
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A
Big Wave said:
I feel like I’m redundant here if you can’t or more importantly don’t want to deal with a high water flip, swim, epic adventure and life changing for good or bad experience don’t launch above 7,000.
I swam plenty of times and ran plenty of big water when I was young so that I don’t need to or want to do that anymore especially not on the Salt at flood. The Salt kicked my ass and had me wondering about my skills more than any other river at - 1,000. That was a decade ago.
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Good advice, and not redundant at all. The Salt is the real deal. It's really different than other rivers because it's wild (no dams) and flows can spike really quickly in the desert. I agree that above 7000 cfs, potential epics await the unwary, or anybody really.
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J
You better bring your A game and boat with a solid crew. You don’t want any weak links on any river when it’s crankin.
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Gunnyraft
Currently 15,000cfs and rising at Christloe. 23,000cfs at Roosevelt.
8,000 is a lot of Chicken Fried Steaks coming in on the tribs.
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D
34,000? The forecast page seems to corroborate.

waterdata.usgs.gov

Salt River Near Chrysotile, AZ

Monitoring location 09497500 is associated with a Stream in Gila County, Arizona. Current conditions of Discharge, Gage height, and Precipitation are available. Water data back to 1916 are available online.
waterdata.usgs.gov waterdata.usgs.gov

Edit: Forgot to include the lower gauge. Perhaps a glitch after all but still no joke.

waterdata.usgs.gov

Salt River Near Roosevelt, AZ

Monitoring location 09498500 is associated with a Stream in Gila County, Arizona. Current conditions of Discharge, Gage height, and Precipitation are available. Water data back to 1913 are available online.
waterdata.usgs.gov waterdata.usgs.gov
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mania
DoStep said:
34,000? The forecast page seems to corroborate.

waterdata.usgs.gov

Salt River Near Chrysotile, AZ

Monitoring location 09497500 is associated with a Stream in Gila County, Arizona. Current conditions of Discharge, Gage height, and Precipitation are available. Water data back to 1916 are available online.
waterdata.usgs.gov waterdata.usgs.gov
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no that's a glitch you can tell by going to this site. looks like it maxed in the high teens.

Salt River Near Chrysotile, AZ
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