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Salt Predictions this Week

5218 Views 73 Replies 23 Participants Last post by  mania
Anyone familiar with the Salt willing to give their predictions what will happen in the next few days? I know river flow forecasting is a rough guess at best. Forecasts were showing it dropping today and tomorrow to around 3500 now the opposite of 8,000-10,000. Supposed to launch tomorrow. Thoughts?
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Yea beyond sporty. Got my truck loaded and pointed south and then I saw an updated forecast.
No we’re not running 12,000 cfs or higher.
Anybody want a Wednesday launch PM me and I’ll know your crazy.
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Definitely want some updates from your trip🚣‍♀️🚣‍♀️
What you want a picture of my fully rigged truck parked in my driveway in Colorado pointed south and not moving.
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Just launch and find the first camp after the day section and layover till it comes down. I’ve launched at 9k (14k at take out) made it to camp right above ledges and layed over for a day till it dropped to around 6k.It’s honestly pretty straight forward for the first day at high flows, yeah big holes but just raft heads up and run tight. Totally worth it. Also I have had my truck loaded up 3 time and do to some kind of bullshit (roads,snow,low flows) never left the drive way. I would never question launching at high flows if I was with a good group. I’ve been told 15 at take out is when you should be concerned. Use that gauge not the put in gauge to decide if your making a bad decision.
Snag my permit and go for it. I’m too old to sit on a beach in the rain and wait for a rain 🌧 on snow ❄ atmospheric river event to subside. 😜
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Quiggle your plan is sound and if you have a super flexible crew it would be great.
Cancelled a 3/15/ 23 permit minutes ago nobody reached out to transfer it to them and I know it’s to late.
I have a permit for March 27 and would appreciate any input on rapid details at higher flows. I have watched numerous YouTube videos up to 4000 cfs, but haven't found much above that. Any intel on the river at 5000 cfs, 6000 cfs, 7000 cfs, or 8000 cfs. I am trying to figure out how high is too high for my group.
Yard Sells has a good video at 7,500 made it look easy.
Quiggle you plan looks like a good option. We could have laid over Friday and Saturday and ran out Sunday.
DoStep good luck.
My canceled permit for tomorrow just came available on rec.gov . I apologize to the entire river community for not making the permit available In a more appropriate time.
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Wishing I was on DoSteps trip. Just couldn't pull off the quick turnaround. That 7-10 range has to be an absolute blast.

Big wave, you cant bitch about people wasting permits for at least a year now that you've gone and done it.
Yea I’m shamed but if you look back through this and other threads I posted on related to the Salt I offed plenty of opportunities for others to either participate or take over the permi. No takers even not PinicheCharlie. I was going with very experienced Salt River boaters the best quote was from Scott who was going to call the shots on the river was I’ve hauled my kayak on my back out of a couple of high water situations but you can’t do that with a raft. We also had 3 members get Covid before the trip it’s still out there. I had a great day skiing today grin from ear to ear life is good.
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Just before I go to bed the forecast is for 15,000+ at 2:00 Friday morning. Since I cancelled my permit I don’t have to sleep with my life jacket on or check my bowline. Hope everyone is safe out there. One person went missing yesterday.
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So all you folks who question my decision to cancel my March 15 permit. We could be laying over with the rabid mountain lion now that the water has finally reached 12,000. I’m a liberal and would have left my gun at home and would have had to fight him off with my welding gloves and my Randal Knife.
From the Upper Salt FB group.... has anyone heard about this?


"Hey folks, know you’re not going until May but a crew just pulled off today two days early after having been in a rabid mountain lion attack. Story is nuts but needless to say the mountain lion is severely injured and not dead. Cat was eating a PFD at dawn and turned on the crew. Be careful out there!"

From a friend of a friend
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Confirmed by Don Sullivan in phone conversation that a person went missing. That’s all I’ve heard or seen too.
March 14 I believe was the date of incident. Tribal rangers were involved In search.
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Looked at the weather forecast and the flow forecast for the Salt this coming week. 22,000 cfs and 55* and rain for several days sounds like a good time for some boaters with Huevos Grande.
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DoStep thanks for the trip report it is obvious you and your group are skilled and competent boaters. How great an accomplishment to have no incidents under those high water conditions.
Our group had the same launch day but out of caution we canceled Monday when the forecast changed and higher flows were forecast.
I‘m envious of your success.
The forecast was for 16,000 it only made it to 13700 at 4:30 pm on the 16th at the gauge. Down to 8,900 on Friday at 1:00.
Don’t let the facts ruin their story.
Glad they had good recoveries but had they really been on 16,000 the outcome might have been different.
I’m not trying to diminish the accomplishments of any groups that commit to running it this high and succeed. Just trying to put out accurate info so this week someone doesn’t think true 16,000 is real doable.
Buddy of mine ran the Salt on a Mon 3/13 launch. They ran Quartzite and Corkscrew on Fri 3/17 at 16k. Flipped one boat above Quartzite and one in it, but recovered both before Corkscrew.
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Friends stopped by the put in on the way home from Show Low Yesterday. Talked to a commercial guide who was at the take out when the lion attack victim came out. Victim had puncture wounds on the bridge of his nose but the cat missed his eyes.
He confirmed the missing boater story somewhere around Canyon Creek. Found his life jacket. I heard from a reliable source that he was allegedly an expert boater who had an aversion to wearing life jackets. He wasn’t a expert boat rigger cause they found his dry bags near Pinball.
Be safe on the Salt this week. Don’t become internet rumor mill fodder.
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you should be using the gauge at Roosevelt if you want to nickel and dime the flow claim. Lots of side tributary’s have come in by the time you get to quartzite.
Yea whatever. I think most people use the Chrysotile gage but if you want to make it more confusing go for it.
I was just trying to help out.
I’d say the difference between 9,000 and 16,000 is more like a dollar.
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The Salt is a gaining river, sometimes dramatically. In 2019, it was 16,500 cfs at Chrysotile and 35,000 cfs at Roosevelt. If you went by the put-in gage, you'd be way off on the flows at Quartzite/Corkscrew.
The math to interpolate isn't too hard: RiverMile/52 x (RooseveltFlow - ChrysotileFlow) + ChrysotileFlow = FlowEstimate

Flows predicted to be almost 14k cfs at the put-in and 22k cfs on 3/23 at the takeout.


If my math works, that'll mean:
31.75/52 x (22-14) + 14 = 18.884 k cfs peak flow at Quartzite on 3/23
I would layover above that one. Be careful out there.
Sure you’re correct. Our group had decided to not run at over 7,000 at the Chrysotile gage.I learned a big lesson from DoStep about running on the low and waiting out the high. Quiggle suggested the same. But if you put on at 16,000 on the Chrysotile gage you’ll probably make it fine because for some reason the river gods are merciful to the ignorant and punishes the wise who go against their better judgment.
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Fair enough. If you go at high water, ignorance is unlikely to be bliss. As others have said, you need a tight group and need to have your game on. I had an epic swim at 9000 cfs early in my kayaking journey on the day section. Maybe I'm just an idiot to keep at it. It's so pretty there in the spring that it's hard to resist though.

It's interesting how some things are easier and some things are harder in floods. For instance, the Maze was a literal maze of huge rocks in early January at 1000 cfs or so. At 7 or 8k last week, it was totally washed out. Ledges was huge, but there was an easy no splash sneak on the right. Overall, I think that the difficulty in stopping if something goes wrong is probably one of the greatest hazards for rafts at high flows.
I feel like I’m redundant here if you can’t or more importantly don’t want to deal with a high water flip, swim, epic adventure and life changing for good or bad experience don’t launch above 7,000.
I swam plenty of times and ran plenty of big water when I was young so that I don’t need to or want to do that anymore especially not on the Salt at flood. The Salt kicked my ass and had me wondering about my skills more than any other river at - 1,000. That was a decade ago.
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