[Kickinback]

Well yes I do, except for that silly you must be x years of age by the launch date thing.

You followers those rules?

 

[jamesthomas]

Get after it trouts. Interesting to see hoe this turns out. ALWAYS felt sketchy to me but then I never win anything.

 

[Michael P]

All I can surmise from this list is; number one, my name does not appear for some reason and number two, I'm really surprised Zuffelato is not a more popular last name.

 

[Paul_Beckford]

Take it with a grain of GPT salt, but here is the o1 Model's comparison of duplicate names between the 2024 and 2025 Lottery results; there were 33 duplicate names (Lastname, First Initial) in the portion that ChatGPT could ingest, up to Last Names starting with "M." Not sure why it couldn't fully ingest the files.

In the 2024 Lottery (up to L) and 2025 lottery (Up to M), if the same last names won and, therefore, "perhaps" part of the same family, then there were approximately 30 Families where more than one person in a family won a permit. I'm not surprised at duplicate entries; my whole family applies for permits, but it does seem odd that many in the same family won... assuming, of course, duplicate names are the same family.

DM Me if you want a link to the GPT session or want me to run a specific query against the data.

 

[Andy H.]

Didn't dive into it, but it's interesting the Bagge names won for 10/2 and 10/3. This seems to me like family members joining and shooting for a few days close together and striking gold so well they'd have to toss one permit back.

 

[coult45]

Didn't dive into it, but it's interesting the Bagge names won for 10/2 and 10/3. This seems to me like family members joining and shooting for a few days close together and striking gold so well they'd have to toss one permit back.

Not every permit wins on their first choice. Maybe one family member got first choice, one got their second. there’s a lot of factors in play here.

 

[Wadeinthewater]

You followers those rules?

Nah, but now I do. The check in ranger didn't believe my 11 year old granddaughter was actually 18 so we weren't allowed to launch. I should have got her a better fake ID.

 

[troutsk]

I've reviewed the 2022, 2024 (thanks @chrios for the archived data), and 2025 data and have some observations to comment on. The variables contained within each file are not consistent across the years, but what I found to be the most useful in terms of exploring any patterns in lottery success is First Initial, Last Name, Group Size, and State.

Subsetting to the 2024 and 2025 datasets (because the 2022 dataset does not include First Initial) and counting the number of observations where the concatenated name (i.e., First Initial + Last Name) and the group size are the same reveal some interesting results (pic below). There are 20 distinct names with the same group sizes that were selected more than once (for the names with only one year associated with them, they were selected twice in the year you see here). While some of these names seem common, it seems unlikely to me that a winning lottery with the same name and group size across multiple years for the same river are different applicants. Infer for yourselves buzzards if it's coincidence or something else! (Btw, State is only listed for 2025 so there's no way to include location in this analysis, although that would definitely help!)

 

[Dangerfield]

Were there “roll overs” of permits due to the many fires in that area that might make the data “look” suspicious. I am not ready to dust off my tin foil hat just yet.

 

[troutsk]

Were there “roll overs” of permits due to the many fires in that area that might make the data “look” suspicious. I am not ready to dust off my tin foil hat just yet.

I’ll look at the launch date tomorrow to see if they’re at the same times in 2024

 

[85263]

Don’t you guys have all the people in Your family put in? Kids, wife mom, dad, ex wife, adopted kids.

I use my dogs. That’s why I got six of them.

 

[Buddha09]

I am on that list of back-to-back winners! I put in for launch dates this year that were roughly the same time of year as last year, similar days of the week, and same group size. Five in our party put in for same launch dates, but I was the only one to draw a permit. I think one way to get to the bottom of this would be to be get in touch with all the back-to-back winners and see how many others in their party put in for the same dates and whether any of them drew as well. Hope this helps

 

[troutsk]

I am on that list of back-to-back winners! I put in for launch dates this year that were roughly the same time of year as last year, similar days of the week, and same group size. Five in our party put in for same launch dates, but I was the only one to draw a permit. I think one way to get to the bottom of this would be to be get in touch with all the back-to-back winners and see how many others in their party put in for the same dates and whether any of them drew as well. Hope this helps

If only there was contact info in the data published by BLM 😅. I’m not saying there is a conspiracy at play here but based on the odds of pulling a permit once it seems rather unlikely to pull it two years in a row if the lottery system is properly randomizing applications

 

[griz]

look at all those winning Harry Bōlz, too!

 

[troutsk]

look at all those winning Harry Bōlz, too!

Jenna Talia keeps winning too!!

 

[zbaird]

Lost the Rogue lottery again this year. Prompted me t
Baird (0.0117%), won two slots

WTH, how come Im not getting in on this privilege.

 

[eshunt]

Some people also know which dates/days of the week offer better odds and apply for those. Not all dates have the same odds of drawing, some might be 1% odds, while others are 0.0001% on the popular days. The applications are not spread out evenly, and then throw in the group size variable and it changes even more. But have fun with your tin foil hat theories, LOL!

 

[mkashzg]

Some people also know which dates/days of the week offer better odds and apply for those. Not all dates have the same odds of drawing, some might be 1% odds, while others are 0.0001% on the popular days. The applications are not spread out evenly, and then throw in the group size variable and it changes even more. But have fun with your tin foil hat theories, LOL!

I'm sorry but those folks ain't that smart and the odds aren't that different...

 

[Andy H.]

@troutsk Thanks for doing the work on this. One question I have is "what are the odds of the same applicant drawing permits in 2 consecutive years?" Are they really infinitesimal, or among a population as large as the applicant pool, how likely is it to happen? Kind of like the way I've heard that in a room with 23 (?) or more people, there's more than a 50% chance two will have the same birthday...

Thanks again,

-AH

 

[troutsk]

@troutsk Thanks for doing the work on this. One question I have is "what are the odds of the same applicant drawing permits in 2 consecutive years?" Are they really infinitesimal, or among a population as large as the applicant pool, how likely is it to happen? Kind of like the way I've heard that in a room with 23 (?) or more people, there's more than a 50% chance two will have the same birthday...

Thanks again,

-AH

To attempt to answer that question I would need to know how many people applied in 2024 and 2025. I couldn’t find any stats on that topic via a cursory google search, do you happen to know (or have an educated guess)? I might also email BLM to see if that can provide me with population statistics