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Discussion Starter #1
From the national weather service...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA
FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
FLOODING WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

Keep an eye on the gauges! I'm hoping bear creek gets nailed!
 

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Even with 2 inches of rain, it is unlikely that Bear will come up to a runnable level....unfortunately, best bets with rain this time of year are Confluence and the Cherry Creek hole. Clear Creek usually even remains unchanged. I hope I am wrong.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
Johnny, I think you are wrong. Historical data does not support your claim.

Clear creek came up 40cfs with 1/3" of rain measured in georgetown a couple days ago.

Bear creek ran last year in July over 200cfs and denver rain gauges showed .38" and .68" for two days prior to it running. That same rain event brought clear creek up over 200cfs. It was July 8&9 last year. Of course that rain event was long, but low intensity. High intensity short rainfalls can produce larger streamflows due to lack of the soils ability to absorb the precipitation fast enough.

If two inches or rain falls in an hour over any significant portion of a front range drainage (or any drainage!), its coming up, and probably a lot. It all depends on where it falls (how high up in the drainage) and how much. 2" up in the foothills around evergreen will nail bear creek. Flood warning means time to go boating!
 

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I'm just reporting what i have observed in the past....sure you might surf the bubble down the river if you happen to be in the river bed at just the right time, but I'm talking about sustained level and enough of a change to make it worth it. If this rain materializes into something significant, your best bets are with Connie and Cherry Creek. Only time will tell, we'll see. If bear is raging out of it's banks, dude, I'll be there.
 

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If it rains enough so we can boat, I called it worth it. :)

I was there last year at Bear and it was worth it.

I think I'll go back outside & dance some more.
 

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Unfortunately, looks like rain on the FR has tapered off. Any more updates on the weather?

The Cherry Creek hole is upstream on Cherry Creek above Confluence Park. It won't run today. There needs to be significant water in the creek for it to run.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Johnny, I guess you didn't observe 40+ boaters on bear creek last year at over 200 cfs. It had boatable flows for two entire days. Thats sustainable and worth it in just about everybody's book I know.

My point is that rain gets the creeks going, it has before, and if there is significant precipitation in the foothills it will again.

Confluence spikes every time it rains moderately hard on Denver because its concrete and there is no where else for the water to go. The creeks don't respond unless there is significant precip in the foothills.

The weather report suggested late afternoon / evening storms on the foothills.

Check the gauges in the morning.

I'm doing a rain dance for bear creek. If all I get is confluence, I'll take it.
 

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Cherry Creek hole is down at Confluence,is the confluence,there is some kind of gate for 'punt the creek"[ a real lame Venice style gondola ride thru downtown Denver} if it is crankin'and the gate is set right this hole gets good,a couple years ago it got up to 2010 cfs and was described by someone as the 'best hole in the state",if it isn't you still have the stuff from Confluence to Trestle,good play high.There is a 'Cadillac Wave'near Broadway that some people play,the river thru there is flat w/II'S but low bridges and few eddies.From the dam to Cherry Creek mall can offer a run at high/floodstage levels,the boogie water is uninteresting flat with some junky 2's but there is a new hole a block east of Havana that was fun to surf at 600[dam release}and 4 drops of note FKA Rebar [ apx.Yale and Dayton} is a 3/3+ apx 9 ft staircase type drop is fun.ILLIFF , agood sized manky drop with no clean lines a far left or right center works at 200-300 at high flows it's hard to read with aeriated spray splashing every which way,Bull n'Bush
 

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Hmm, seems to me Black Rock was on track to be 250 or lower by today and now it's in the low 300s. That's good enough for me.
 

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Cherry Creek hole is down at Confluence,is the confluence,there is some kind of gate for 'punt the creek"[ a real lame Venice style gondola ride thru downtown Denver} if it is crankin'and the gate is set right this hole gets good,a couple years ago it got up to 2010 cfs and was described by someone as the 'best hole in the state",if it isn't you still have the stuff from Confluence to Trestle,good play high.There is a 'Cadillac Wave'near Broadway that some people play,the river thru there is flat w/II'S but low bridges and few eddies.From the dam to Cherry Creek mall can offer a run at high/floodstage levels,the boogie water is uninteresting flat with some junky 2's but there is a new hole a block east of Havana that was fun to surf at 600[dam release}and 4 drops of note FKA Rebar [ apx.Yale and Dayton} is a 3/3+ apx 9 ft staircase type drop is fun.ILLIFF , agood sized manky drop with no clean lines a far left or right center works at 200-300 at high flows it's hard to read with aeriated spray splashing every which way,Bull n'Bush a little bigger and rocky at low flows it cleans up nicely at 600 left or right of the big roostertail at the top.After a 3- at Steele there is a low bridge to portage and the last drop a smaller version of ILIFF OR BnB is dangerously close to a low bridge, eddy at the base or practice your bush grabbing skills.None of theses is harder than 3/3+ but would be a drag to be upside down in.nOT RECOMMENDING ANYBODY DRIVE FAR BUT IF YOU LIVE IN EAST Denver,AURORA'OR glendale why not?I hope Parker and Arapahoe County get pounded so they release from the dam again.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
Flash Flood Watch
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1044 AM MDT THU JUL 19 2007
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PMMDT THIS EVENING...

* INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR TWO. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF DENVER AND SOUTH PARK INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA AND AREAS JUST SOUTH OF DENVER.

If bear creek gets hit tonight and the gauges are up over 140ish tomorrow, I'm ditching work and going boating.
 

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"none of theses is" I'll dis myself for that one,had a problem with caps lock too!The Havana hole is west,downstream, not east of Havana.There is a waterfall in the golf course east of Havana,I've never checked it out though.
 

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Recall that the road between Westcreek and Deckers washed out last spring. Well, the road crew rebuild the streambed into a narrow channel with a series of drops. I've only seen it running on snowmelt at maybe 50 cfs...with more water, say 100 cfs or more, it would be a series of meaty holes and 2 - 4 ft boofs, probably Class III+ or IV with wood an issue.

100 cfs probably runs down here on any major rain event due to the sheetflow of the Haymen Burn area. If you've got nothing better to do and it's cats 'n dogs over there, could be worth it. Could be "Plan B" if you climbing at Turkey Rocks and get rained out.

The westcreek gage doesn't have flows, but does measure precip: USGS Real-Time Water Data for USGS 06701700 WEST CR. ABV SHREWSBURY GULCH NR WESTCREEK CO

Post and let us know if you run this "new" front range run.
 

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I was looking at that area near Deckers on my way to Bailey a couple weeks ago......while I do agree that it looks like it COULD go....and might be fun.....the distance between culverts is scary/short. With a bunch of water flowing through there (flash flood) the eddies would be scarce.

Love to hear about it if anyone finds water in it and gives it a go....
 

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That must be what Caspian was talking about on the Horse Crk. thread about a week ago.If it's Heyman runoff then it could be "blackwater", hard to see F U rocks.
 

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The upper narrows part looked pretty good and I don't recall too many culverts. The lower portion looked like Class II flood stage with frequent and terminal culverts. Upper is probably 1 - 2 miles long.

More heavy rain in the forcast today; hold my beer and watch this.
 
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