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FYI. Not looking to be an ass but please know I had a huge (20+) group put in for permits on July 20th for Ladore and MFS. Figured I might let other Buzzards know and be forewarned. Good luck to everyone on 2015 permits. :lol:
 

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Don't worry your 20 applications will barely change anyone else's chance of winning those dates.:eek:
Middle Fork 1 in 130 last year for that date:(
Lodore 1 in 105 last year for that date:(
Every year the odds of winning get worse, but the chance of getting a cancelation if you are flexible and a fast packer gets better.:cool:
 

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Winner!

FYI. Not looking to be an ass but please know I had a huge (20+) group put in for permits on July 20th for Ladore and MFS. Figured I might let other Buzzards know and be forewarned. Good luck to everyone on 2015 permits. :lol:
I think this is the douchiest post I've ever seen on the buzz.
 

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I'll take "who cares for a thousand please Alex". I can see you kicking back with a glass of smug on the rocks thinking that you nailed it! Permit parties have been happening for years. 20 people is far from "huge". Don't beg Lumberg for the days of just yet.
 

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20 people is tiny. Applications on a prime date can be 600+.

"BTW your odds might swing by 3% on this date"
Not helpful.

Just by looking at past data you can swing the odds 40% or more my moving a day or two. Applying for the 19th vs 20th last year eliminated 100 people from the pool. But the 21st was far worse because 1 less permit was available.

http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5409043.pdf

Odds on the 19th: 1:107
Odds on the 20th: 1:131
odds on teh 21st: 1:175

Date apps Permits Available
7/17/2014 447 3
7/18/2014 453 4
7/19/2014 429 4
7/20/2014 524 4
7/21/2014 525 3
7/22/2014 455 4
7/23/2014 405 4

moral of the story: apply for dates that work for you.

But just in case I put in 2 applications For the Selway on my birthday. So I pretty much have that locked up. You better apply elsewhere.
 

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The 20th works for me, I'm in for that date :rolleyes:
 

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Discussion Starter #15
Guess the big winner is the River Office and/or recreation.gov as I'm sure they get in on the action. :evil: I have pulled 2 permits in 11 years and I always put in. Oh well goes to show how great these trips are. Happy boating everyone.
 

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Lodore

Just got through to the river office, she asked me what day I wanted for the Green and July 20 just popped into my head. Not sure why.
 
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