[BrianK]

Hey - so I've been hearing rumors of an intense El Nino cycle next year. We have a February Grand Trip planned. Any info on how El Nino affects the weather down there? I haven't been able to find much on the internets.

 

[Doubledown]

Above average precipitation, so bring an umbrella!!! I'll be down there in January.

 

[Randaddy]

In El Niño years you'll want to go center at Lava because of the Coreolis Effect and the high tide.

I'm jealous - February sounds like a great time to go!

 

[DesertRatonIce]

I am putting on in february as well, It will be my first winter Grand trip. I am interested in this as well. I just see in reports that high elevations will be getting alot of snow and lower will be getting alot of rain. We could get both on our trips! Keep bringing the information to add.

 

[dbendell]

Never bank on El Niño rumors!
Especially 7 months in advance


Sent from my iPhone using Mountain Buzz

 

[sleighr]

I live not far from GC they said last year we were gonna be swimming in snow. Didn't get hardly a flake. Be prepped for anything... we launch12.8.15

 

[restrac2000]

We were in the Grand Jan 2010 during what was a "moderate" (though the strongest since '98 ) El Nino pattern. Oscillated from warm temps (shorts after Marble) to 6 days of straight rain starting around Bass Camp; I believe that storm series was also responsible for the massive blow outs on the Salt River. 6 days of rain was challenging and even the classic camps like Ponchos became eroded from massive rivulets and were dripping bad. To be honest the worst part was actually the uncontrollable element of major rock fall, especially in the Mauv Gorge. Matkat Hotel proved to be an intense and frightening camp.

We had a great trip but appreciated multiple group tarps and even a wood stove. Tents need to be solid and dry suits work double duty in such conditions.

Best of luck; I will never forget not seeing another group for 20+ days.

Phillip

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

[mattman]

In El Niño years you'll want to go center at Lava because of the Coreolis Effect and the high tide.

I'm jealous - February sounds like a great time to go!

Hey isn't the middle of lava the ledge hole? Whats the coriolis affect?Are you f#@king with us randady? Just trying to cure my ignorence since i haven't been down there yet.
Oh, and why did that guys head explode?

 

[mattman]

Is that the mystical line that forms in high water lava, like the emerald mile talks about?

 

[sea hag]

All other tropical storms must bow before el niño

https://m.youtube.com/?#/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8

 

[Brotorboat]

For those of you who don't habla espanol...
el nino means...the nino

 

[Skikbum66]

Guess you don't speak Spanish either!!


Rich

 

[Docennig]

On that naming El Nino thing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X82bQ4FBPHA

(Parental Advisory: Explicit Language. Awesomely so...)

 

[azpowell]

Don't row into the ledge hole

 

[BrianK]

Thanks everyone. I think i got it, if there is an El Nino I should go center at Lava.

 

[sealion]

Actually Brian, I think it is "If you row center at Lava, THEN we have an El Nino". Looking forward to results.

 

[buckmanriver]

I look up the weather for the Marble Canyon zip code for the winter of 98 (last big El Nino). Precipitation data is included.

 

[Tim Kennedy]

Check NPS site for google avg temps at Phantom

Buckman...that data is mostly for locations at 6000'+ or 7000'+ elevation. The Waheap data is more applicable, as it is on Lake Powell at about 3700' elevation. Lee's Ferry sits at 3210'. When I first looked at that link, I was a bit nervous for my Feb 2016 trip. The daily lows in Feb for the first two locations listed were in the 20's and high in the 30's and 40's. But, then I noticed that the elevation for the weather readings were 6500' and 7200', a big difference from river level in the canyon. The Waheap readings had highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's. I would expect canyon (mostly in the shade) temps to be around the Waheap readings. The precip data is helpful, though.

 

[buckmanriver]

That's an excellent point. Elevation of the river level will always be more accurate. And in most cases warmer than higher elevations.

 

[trevko]

When the storms come through, it can be cold and wet (I've been snowed on a few times down there). In between storms it it usually wonderful weather in the 60's - high 70's. You will probably have a couple of storms and great weather as well. I always looked at the satellite photos of the Gulf of Alaska to try and get an idea of what was coming down the pike. It worked for me.