Mountain Buzz banner

201 - 220 of 228 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,389 Posts
Sucks wish we'd all work together so we could feel better. Montana wasted its lock down when tourist came back so hardcore.
That's what I struggle with. We had a "successful" lockdown and had minimal cases during the March-May lockdown.
I thought that was to "flatten the curve".

Flattening the curve doesn't necessarily reduce the area under the curve, it just spreads out the number of people who are positive/symptomatic at any one time. If you have a big spike and exceed hospital care capacity, then you do get more deaths than if you keep the symptomatic number under your available hospital capacity number.

Yes, there are some really scary symptoms (like lung damage in otherwise healthy 35 year-olds)..but they're also somewhat rare. I also know a guy who died of pneumonia at age 40 about 10 years ago. So there is a small risk even in "normal" diseases.


As I'd noted above,
It may never be "under control" and may simply have to run its course until our population gets "herd immunity".
So....while the tourists are a grand pain in the ass, at some point the virus is still going to have to run its course.

And some of the hardest initially-hit states like NY are now approaching "herd immunity". Montana is still well behind that curve.

The longer this lingers, the longer we're talking about this subject. :(
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,897 Posts
Flattening the curve doesn't necessarily reduce the area under the curve, it just spreads out the number of people who are positive/symptomatic at any one time. If you have a big spike and exceed hospital care capacity, then you do get more deaths than if you keep the symptomatic number under your available hospital capacity number.
.......
The longer this lingers, the longer we're talking about this subject. :(
I believe you are simplifying and misinterpreting the long term significance of flattening the curve. Also, herd immunity by mass natural infection is not the only way out of this pandemic.

Encouraging "herd immunity" is likely the deadliest way to proceed. You don't want to strive for it in Montana. It is a bad gamble considering that you may be one of the fatalities/maimed whether by COVID-19 or by COVID-19 related complications. Do you want to play that game?

Proper pandemic procedures not only flattened the curve, it has substantially reduced the area beneath the curve which can be interpreted as COVID cases, hospitalizations, fatalities, etc. Flattening the curve has allowed the time necessary to develop and implement managements and treatments and most importantly, a working vaccine(hopefully only months away??).

Flattening the curve at a low level indicates "under control" conditions allowing throughtful and managed cautious reopening. It means in the end a likely much smaller area beneath the short and long term curve, aka dead people.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
171 Posts
Seems like the debate really should change now. Dudes ON TAPE ACTUALLY SAYING that this shits really bad and he ACTUALLY said it's worse than the flu WAY WORSE. So why are we still saying it's a hoax and that it's just a flu and that it's over in November? Cant it just be a bad way to get sick and getting sick and dying sucks and who wants that for their fellow boater or granny? Seems like the media works better than anyone thought. Heres two guys who share alot in common and their ready to kill each other over these other guys who could care less about them. I dont get it and I grew up in texas so you cant call me a libtard.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,389 Posts
these other guys who could care less about them.
Nail:head

I'm dubious, but I'm also wearing a mask when I go into the store. Really not all that concerned about the virus, but I am cognizant that the way our Governor wrote his decree that it's the store owner who would get cited and not me...so it's out of respect for the person trying to keep their business open.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,897 Posts
I'm dubious, but I'm also wearing a mask when I go into the store. Really not all that concerned about the virus, but I am cognizant that the way our Governor wrote his decree that it's the store owner who would get cited and not me...so it's out of respect for the person trying to keep their business open.
Out of respect for the business owner is a good reason to wear a mask. (How about respect for his employees?)

How about out of respect for your fellow human beings especially those respectful enough to wear one for you?

How about "The longer this lingers, the longer we're talking about this subject. :( ". To have the attitude "Really not that concerned about the virus" is exactly why this virus will linger.

You should be thankful that you have a governor who cares. His decree to wear a mask in public is not that much to ask of big boys and girls during a pandemic.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,980 Posts
Seems like the debate really should change now. Dudes ON TAPE ACTUALLY SAYING that this shits really bad and he ACTUALLY said it's worse than the flu WAY WORSE. So why are we still saying it's a hoax and that it's just a flu and that it's over in November? Cant it just be a bad way to get sick and getting sick and dying sucks and who wants that for their fellow boater or granny? Seems like the media works better than anyone thought. Heres two guys who share alot in common and their ready to kill each other over these other guys who could care less about them. I dont get it and I grew up in texas so you cant call me a libtard.
I'm afraid it's all about how this reality TV show is being run. If we all got along and would wear a mask
to help curb this virus, Rumpster wouldn't get the air time he craves.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
909 Posts
For anyone that cares, another member of this list showed me where the ignore feature is located (I'm still getting used to the new format), go into a post, hover over his avatar. Gray/white box pops up. 3 dots in the upper-right corner, click Ignore.

Works like a champ !!
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
909 Posts
You're welcome, I figure a LOT of the participants here will find that function useful, and hope that once they do, someone will find another street corner from which to spew forth.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
4,027 Posts
Discussion Starter #212
Hey Folks - A lot of the political pissing match posts got deleted to take out the trash.

Yale study shows coronavirus attacks the brain too, scientists say it's 'a silent infection'

Yale study shows coronavirus attacks the brain too, scientists say it's 'a silent infection'

More good news....
And plenty of other organs. Lots of folks are still sick, debilitated, and have been for months. Since they're not dead, and haven't recovered, their cases are listed as "mild" however lots can't even work and are suffering really serious health conditions. I sure don't want to take my chances with this shit.

 
  • Like
Reactions: caverdan

·
Registered
Joined
·
203 Posts
I think the whole debate is insane. It isn't about masks, they are mostly a symbol. It is about isolating sick people and testing them for the virus. Does an isolated person need to wear a mask? Hell no! It is about social distancing, but only when you are inside. Being outside you aren't going to get infected unless you are either very unlucky or careless (e.g., kissing strangers). You can hope for a vaccine, but we don't have one for the common cold which is also a coronavirus. We also don't have an anti-viral effective for the common cold. The US is the hardest hit country in the world for good reasons, we are also the most racist for pretty much the same reasons. Everyone running around looking for someone to blame rather than taking personal responsibility for yourself.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,897 Posts
John, I hope all is well.

I have not found a single scientific source of information that backs your claim that masks are "mostly a symbol". However, they are certainly a symbol to keep your hands away from your face, don't kiss strangers and warning others that I prefer that you maintain your distance.

All qualified medical sources of information state that mask wearing significantly reduces particulate transmission. When exercising people exhale and perspire pounds of water per hour. This is proven to me personally by how wet my mask gets when biking on trails where other people are present. That water is potentially infectious. That cannot be debated.

Mask wearing was not heavily recommended early on because we were supposed to be locked down anyway hence socially isolated(no mask required), quality masks were in short supply and were needed by medical professionals and it was not recognized yet how asymptomatic Covid-19 can be(usually infectious people are sick enough to know to quarantine).

The common cold is not deadly so why bother. And it isn't to my knowledge a single virus that can be targeted by a vaccine. In my readings, the Covid-19 virus is a singular enough virus such that it can be targeted much like each year there is a flu shot that targets hopefully the most likely strain of flu.

We probably agree on why the US is the hardest hit country and the most racist but obviously we are not allowed to discuss that.

Concerning personal responsibility. Right now we are being asked to be personally responsible to each other and wear a mask, practice social distance as best as possible, avoid gatherings of unfamiliar people and get your recommended shots. I had my flu and pneumonia shots last Thursday for example.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
203 Posts
We are both in Colorado, which we will again agree is one of the best states for dealing with the virus. The state recommendations are to wear a mask in INDOOR PUBLIC spaces. And wear a mask outdoors where you can't practice social distancing. This is the law for us. I follow it as any personal responsible person does. Do I think the mask wearing requirements are over stepping - yes, because this doesn't have to be the new normal. Wearing masks sucks. I can easily live with social distancing, isolation, testing and contact tracing, and my argument is these techniques, that are scientifiacally reasonable do work and need to be emphasized.

I am watching CU Boulder dashboard. They have gone from 4 students in isolation during the first week to 63 as of yesterday. Are these students that have had positive tests for Covid allowed by the medical professionals to go and hit the bars out as long as they have a mask on. Certainly not! The factors for controlling the virus are isolation, contact tracing social isolation and testing. Masks are very much seconday to these factors and should go away.

How about the recent report of a US citizen in Germany suspected of infecting the town. I would be willing to bet she had a mask on. If so, this is exactly the result of focusing on half measures like wearing masks rather than on real science that says isolate and get tested and track down those that were exposed to you (i.e., be responsible).

I agree with your statement "All qualified medical sources of information state that mask wearing significantly reduces particulate transmission." Guess what, the virus that the masks don't 'significantly reduce' will infect you just the same. If you are so sure your masks are the answer, I challenge you to hang out in isolation (of course with your bloody mask on) with infected folks for a few days and report back after you have recovered from your illness.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,897 Posts
Non-N95 and homemade masks are primarily focused on short term exposure and significantly reducing the viral load during those times. Such as, in and out of essential shopping, passing through the lobby of a motel or office building, etc. Particulate modeling and particulate visualizations using laser prove that point. We are both scientist, we should accept that science.

Since I mention viral load, the science indicates that levels of exposure to the virus significantly defines the likely consequences of the exposure. Low exposures are less likely to result in hospitalization and more severe outcomes.

I'd prefer to take up your challenge with both me and infected folks wearing masks. I challenge you to do the same exposure experiment with no one wearing masks. Or would you prefer to switch the challenge but I'd say right off, FORGET ABOUT IT!. I'm no fool. I want the odds in my favor in anyway possible. For you to say that masks are "secondary" simply says you believe that masks have a purpose.

To prove my preference, why do medical professionals around the world in Covid-19 wards wear anything, anything available mask-wise to minimize viral load. They live with your challenge daily and they choose a mask and if available a shield.

In terms of "be responsible". How many times have you been tested? Some infected people don't even suspect they need to be tested. They are asymptomatic.

Your example of CU Boulder suggests that medical professionals have any control over a student after they get tested until they get notified of results(and even then likely no control). And your example of a US citizen infecting a town in Germany is tainted by "I would be willing to bet".

One quarter and half measures are better than no measures!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
203 Posts
Not only am I a scientist, I have worked in chemical labs my whole career. I know a thing or two about protective equipment. Enough about masks, they are only partially effective and they are not what is important.

I used to work at a gas sweetening plant. I went to countless trainings on H2S among other toxic hazards. Learned how to use Scott Air Packs, go in burning buildings, blah, blah, blah. But in the most serious accident I was in, a valve blew on a 150' contactor spraying right in my face. I did the same thing I learned in kayaking, hold your breath. It saved my life. But all those classes never mentioned holding your breath. Why is that?

This is not about black and white, but gray. It is not about truth, but rather protocol. My daughter worked the front lines as a nurse on the COVID wards at Swedish in Denver. I was surprised when she told me she had not been tested after about a month of dealing with the peak. The testing standard then was you had to show symptoms. She eventually got tested. but showing symptoms to be tested is still the standard for the general public. Why is that? Why aren't they testing everyone? There is still a shortage of testing - REALLY? Why?

This is not about following science, it is about science getting marginalized. One of the best ways to help marginalize science is to falsely represent it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,897 Posts
Most of your questions are above my pay grade such as why management is discouraging/defunding testing. (And especially, how long to hold your breath whether in presence of chemical contaminates or walking through a grocery store.)

The last time I saw your daughter was when I was still slim and trim doing triathlons.

Masks you admit are partially effective. Virus's are small but current science concludes that they travel primarily on water vapor particulates. Indications are that bandana type masks(polyester) break up particulates smaller to sadly travel farther. They do not "catch/absorb" the vapors at either the sending or receiving end of transmission. If you want to die or kill a friend, use a bandana mask I've read.

Science being marginalized is an associated consequence of being the most racist and most covid-19 affected nation.

Do you think I am falsely representing science John?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
203 Posts
Not really, as most of my comments were more rhetorical than directed at you. I actually appreciate a lot of your comments, in general, they are well founded but you might want to redirect your scorn. You helped me express my frustrations at our outrageous collective stupidity now playing out. We could get lucky and the virus dissapears or they do develop a vaccine that is offered to all. Unfortunately, I think science has had its day, and as a society we are now dominated by money, conflict and litigation. The answers to all my questions involve the greater influence of law over the practicality of science. I think people have lost faith in our institutions, including science because of the corruption of money and the selfish (who use partisanship to achieve their goals).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
33 Posts
EDIT 3/16/20 - corrected seasonal flu mortality rates, revised source HT to zbaird

EDIT 3/16/20: I put this here in the eddy because it's not really related to boating. My hope is that this will be a place for frank, civil, and sincere discussion. It may be tough but let's try to keep politics out of it - we are where we are and this is about helping folks understand what's going on. If you've got claims to make that are new, please provide sources for your info. And please keep conspiracy theories out of this unless you've got a reputable source to back it up.

Hey Folks,

'Thought I'd share some stuff I've written about the Coronavirus and posted in other venues. I was posting this on FB a week or so ago when it seemed like there were still a lot of folks brushing off the pandemic as "seasonal flu" or something made up by the media.

I don't really tune into the cable TV/mainstream network news for my scientific information but bet they've got the panic machine turned up to 11 with the pandemic. Instead, most of my info on the virus comse from more scientific sources, mainly the news sections of Nature and Science. These are where academics and researchers summarize journal articles and write about stuff from a scientific point of view. They're funded by the journals of the same names, so they're not trying to boost viewership by using sensationalist clickbait like you'll see on regular news sites (unless you find article titles like, "Interdomain spacing and spatial configuration drive the potency of IgG-[L]-scFv T cell bispecific antibodies" titillating). So just in case you're not convinced yet, the science nerds that work with viruses and epidemiology are saying that we're dealing with something much, much more serious than our regular seasonal influenza.

Here's what I've been learning:

First, I really hope that the Coronavirus will not be as bad as current projections. There are some articles in the scientific literature saying that the percentage of people who die from Coronavirus (mortality rate) may be much lower than the 2% rate estimates from China. This is because a lot of mild cases haven't been reported and aren't included in the mortality rate calculations.

But it's also misleading to minimize the outbreak as some folks are doing by saying the seasonal flu kills many more each year than the Coronavirus has killed (so far), and so the Coronavirus is overblown and will not be a problem. This is because far fewer people have been infected, to date, than get the flu every year. The number of infections now known is just the tip of the iceberg because the epidemic is just beginning to spread in the US.

Now let's run some numbers to put things into perspective: To say that 98% of people who get the Coronavirus infection live is also to say that 2% of infected people die. Thus, out of 100,000 infections, that 2% mortality rate translates to 2,000 deaths. This is compared to a seasonal flu mortality rate of only 15-20 deaths per 100,000 people infected according to the CDC. If the 2% mortality rate is correct, the Corona virus is 100 times more deadly than our garden variety seasonal influenza.

Hopefully the Coronavirus mortality rate has been overstated and is much less than the 2% rate being reported. But even if it's only 1%, instead of the current 2% estimate, that means that it would kill 1,000 people out of 100,000 infections. This would mean it's 50 times more deadly than the seasonal flu - still pretty serious.

So based on this, when, not if, the virus sweeps through the country a couple of people you know will probably die of it, especially among the elderly or those with immune system problems or other health issues. In addition to the toll in suffering and loss of loved ones, this kind of death rate, and also the reluctance of people to go to work if they're well, or need to stay home if they're sick, could have significant impacts to our economy (as we're seeing) and our quality of life over the next year or two.

I've discussed this stuff with a couple of family members who work in molecular biology daily and they agree.

Maybe I'm overreacting, but I'm taking it seriously.

CDC Flu Mortality Rate source: Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality by State

Here's a good starter article on the virus from the Smithsonian Magazine, a reputable science news source: A Guide to What to Know About COVID-19

Here's an article saying that the mortality rate may be overestimated (let's hope they're correct!): Data suggests virus infections under-reported, exaggerating fatality rate | Physician's Weekly

Here's an article on the BS consipracy theories going around that the virus is man-made or came from a bioweapons lab: Baseless Conspiracy Theories Claim New Coronavirus Was Bioengineered - FactCheck.org
Too bad our country's leadership couldn't have come up w/ a better plan than you did 6 months ago... Shaking my head...
 
201 - 220 of 228 Posts
Top