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Greetings,

Any thoughts on what the flow will be for the Numbers and Royal Gorge between June 13 - 24?

Over/Under 1000 cfs?

Also, I know the snowpack is depressing, but do you think the Clear Creek of the Ark might be above 150 cfs during that time?

Thanks a bunch!
 

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Greetings,

Any thoughts on what the flow will be for the Numbers and Royal Gorge between June 13 - 24?

Over/Under 1000 cfs?

Also, I know the snowpack is depressing, but do you think the Clear Creek of the Ark might be above 150 cfs during that time?

Thanks a bunch!
I hope to be hitting those two rivers in between the same dates (15th-22nd) Hopefully things aren't too boney.

-Chris
 

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Guessing that with the current conditions, and the future forecasts, we will be looking at 500-600 cfs at the Numbers and around 800 cfs at the Gorge. The limited snowpack we have this season will melt and peak early (likely late April/early May). The Bureau of Reclamation will try and maintain flows on the Arkansas to 700 cfs at the Wellsville gauge until August 15th. Based on the current reservoir levels, and the diverted water that will refill these reservoirs via the Western Slope, I would say my guess will be pretty close...
 

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Guessing that with the current conditions, and the future forecasts, we will be looking at 500-600 cfs at the Numbers and around 800 cfs at the Gorge. The limited snowpack we have this season will melt and peak early (likely late April/early May). The Bureau of Reclamation will try and maintain flows on the Arkansas to 700 cfs at the Wellsville gauge until August 15th. Based on the current reservoir levels, and the diverted water that will refill these reservoirs via the Western Slope, I would say my guess will be pretty close...

The Ark has never peaked in late April or early May.

I think mid June is much more realistic for the peak this year.
 

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The Ark has never peaked in late April or early May.

I think mid June is much more realistic for the peak this year.
I'll wager around Memorial day at 2000 cfs. Let's see.
 

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The Ark has never peaked in late April or early May.

I think mid June is much more realistic for the peak this year.
Have you seen the snowpack numbers? Last couple of years the river peaked in late May, this year it is already melting quickly, and there isn't much there to melt. Looking back at historical data, 2002 was the most recent year with a similar snowpack to this season. The Ark peaked at 726 cfs at the below Granite gauge on May 22.....so based on that I think Andy's guess of Memorial Day is probably pretty close.
 

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Have you seen the snowpack numbers? Last couple of years the river peaked in late May, this year it is already melting quickly, and there isn't much there to melt. Looking back at historical data, 2002 was the most recent year with a similar snowpack to this season. The Ark peaked at 726 cfs at the below Granite gauge on May 22.....so based on that I think Andy's guess of Memorial Day is probably pretty close.
I have looked at the snowpack numbers and stand by my statement. But you are AGAIN incorrect, the last couple of years the ark did not peak in late May. Last year(2011) the river peaked at just over 4000 cfs on JULY 1st. In 2010, the river peaked at about 5200 on JUNE 6th. I think you are pulling your stats out of your ass.

Andy's guess of Memorial Day (May 28th) is well within the historical range. As I stated before, the ark has never peaked in late April or early May like you originally guessed.
 

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my guess is that it will peak sometime between Easter and labor day. peak flows will be somewhere between 20-2,000cfs. bet i'm right.

either way it will be a good summer.

anyone wanna bet on that the monarch crest / agate creek will be 100% clear before the ark peaks? maybe even caynyon creek too.
 

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Be Polite

What in the world about anonimity makes it that people can be so stinkinig rude to each other on conversation threads like Mountain Buzz? One would never speak with such disrespect to another human in person. Why do we allow this? Do you want people like that on your trips? I don't.:confused::confused::confused:
 

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Flows of 2000 anytime this year will be quite optimistic. 2002 flows are what we should be looking towards unless we have an epic April and May.

The state will be holding all water (not supplementing) until late June or July in order to have water for the busy season.

My educated guess would be somewhere around 600 or 700 for #s, 800 for the gorge.

It will not be "a great summer", but still worth getting out there.
 

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You can't compare this season's run off to the last 2 years. Living in the high country, I have less snow in my yard now on 4/6/12 than I did at the end of May last year. Not only do we have a crappy snow-pack, but the temps have been 10-20 degrees above normal for the past month. Add to the fact that all those dead trees aren't giving much shade, and I'd say we are going to peak way early this year. Unless temps cool down substantially (which they might), I'd say early to mid-May. I'm not pulling statistics from anywhere, just looking out my back door at 10,000 ft. at bare dirt and rock.
 

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What in the world about anonimity makes it that people can be so stinkinig rude to each other on conversation threads like Mountain Buzz? One would never speak with such disrespect to another human in person. Why do we allow this? Do you want people like that on your trips? I don't.:confused::confused::confused:
Right on, their buzzards and they know it is going to be a tough low water season.:eek: We need some snow!
 

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I apologize if anyone thought I was being rude, including Jerkmybait....I'm not trying to jerk any troll bait, I was simply answering the OP's question about flows on Numbers and Gorge. I did add in my own opinion about when the river was going to peak, and now that I have looked into it a little more I agree that late April/ early May is too early.

I am not "pulling stats out of my ass", I looked at the USGS records for 2002, not for the last 2 years. I was simply going off my memory that the river was at or near peak during Paddlefest 2 seasons ago, and I knew we had several peaks last season....but remember it being extremely high around the same time.

I stand by the statement that Andy's guess of a Memorial Day peak is going to be close, and probably in the 1500-2000 range. As well as the statement that it will likely be dam release by mid-June. That should still make for a nice season on the Ark, especially considering it will likely be a longer season than most drainages.

Cheers to early season paddling guys, go enjoy it.
 

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ELF you some Numbers tomorrow?
I was considering it, but I think I am going to head up to Monarch for one last day. I have a close friend with family in town, and I think I will hit a couple bc lines and then join them on the hill. Thanks, and enjoy if you get out there.
 

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My bad lmyers, I wasn't trying to be an ass (although I might sound like one occasionally). I just thought late April was way off and wanted to give the OP solid info. Sorry about the "stats outta your ass" thing, I'm sure you were just giving info the way you remember it. Once again, my bad dude, I'll be up in your town May 24 until mid June so I'm sure we'll both enjoy the peak whenever it comes. Cheers!
 

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2000 might be optimistic,especially based on 2002. I'll say 1430 late May holding 1000 + for only a couple weeks,a lot of 600-800's most of the season..yeah i pulled that from an orafice....wasn't 2002 like 19% snowpack statwide ?[ maybe that was just the front range ] we're at what 50ish with crappy shot at much more snow,even so it should be better than 2002...rezs are full at least...
SBarn the buzz would be way boring without sniping, all coolers , oarlocks,and the same cocky punks that put you [ not you personally ] to shame dropping waterfalls .... you can still get a lot of useful information.....we are generally nice to each other on the river.In the end they hugged it out.

hey Logan still interested in the Canadian ? The Cimmaron still was doing pretty good the last time I checked . Spanish Peaks got 30" of wet snow this last storm,very close to Canadian headwaters. It would be weird if a river that never runs ran in a low water year.
 
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