[deepsouthpaddler]

Yo Buzzards,

No surprise here, but I looked at the April 1 snowpack reports, and its really bleak. I like looking at the following reports because they break down the major river basins into sub-basins (ie clear creek, boulder creek). Below are the links to 2002, and 2012, and they are pretty close to each other. I looked at a couple of my favorite runs to see how flows were in 2002 and it was horrible. Before opening up the links, make sure any firearms are locked up.

The only hope I have is that Bailey and Gore ran at low flows for a good part of the season in 2002 and I am hoping for the same this year.

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/snow/basin_reports/colorado/wy2012/basnco4.txt


http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/snow/basin_reports/colorado/wy2002/basnco4.txt

 

[mania]

the durango herald graphs the san juan basin bleakness for you. looks like we are on target to run out of snow by the end of april.

 

[afox]

The fact that the snow has stopped accumulating and started melting a few weeks ago is almost more worrisome than the lack of a snowpack. At this rate it seems like we could peak a month ahead of schedule. Flows on the poudre doubled overnite to over 200 cfs today. Average is 75 cfs for April 2.

 

[paulk]

my god, the mayans were right

 

[Mut]

What does NM look like? I thought they were getting some good snow?

 

[KSC]

What does NM look like? I thought they were getting some good snow?

Looks like plenty of snow fell, but it's all melting away - eh?

ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/update/nm.txt

 

[pbell]

Does this mean we start planning a Memorial Day Big South trip?

 

[stubby]

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

I just threw up a little bit. Visual representation.

 

[Jahve]

Yea needless to say we are not going to have a year like last one here on the Ark.. The good news is that we used 0 flow program water last year and they plan on bringing over around 50k acre feet down Lake Creek - so there will be a season on Lake this year. Also there is enough water in place for releases this summer to keep the ditch up to a reasonable flow.

Fair to say it is not going to be the epic water of the past few years but we are super lucky here in BV to have the flow program water in place to give us 600 - 700cfs until Aug 15th. From what I remember the lowest wave down at the BV park is super fun in that range...

 

[bobbuilds]

Yea needless to say we are not going to have a year like last one here on the Ark.. The good news is that we used 0 flow program water last year and they plan on bringing over around 50k acre feet down Lake Creek - so there will be a season on Lake this year. Also there is enough water in place for releases this summer to keep the ditch up to a reasonable flow.

Fair to say it is not going to be the epic water of the past few years but we are super lucky here in BV to have the flow program water in place to give us 600 - 700cfs until Aug 15th. From what I remember the lowest wave down at the BV park is super fun in that range...

I am willing to bet they can not up hold that promise this season.... I will go as far to say it will not be at 600cfs august 1. watch.

 

[ACC]

Get it here while you can, then start driving. We'll be peaking more than a month early if things continue on the present track. Temps have been 10-15 degrees above average for a majority of March and April so far..... MT, WY and ID have snowpack. NM and southern CO will go early. The warm windstorms are sublimating the snow too, so yeah, get it while you can!

 

[deepsouthpaddler]

Read in the denver post that the april 1 state wide snowpack numbers are the lowest since the snow survey folks started measuring in 1968. Ouch!

I hadn't thought about the ark flow program... thats certainly good to have in years like this one.

I've been thinking that the big south will be totally done by the time the gate opens july 4th.

 

[stubby]

Hopefully April and May pan out like two years ago where we got several big moist dumps. My best powder day of that season was May 7th. Praying for the same.

I've been thinking that the big south will be totally done by the time the gate opens july 4th.

I'm thinking the same. Source mission in June...then we'll have to fly the coup for somewhere where there's water.

 

[lmyers]

I am willing to bet they can not up hold that promise this season.... I will go as far to say it will not be at 600cfs august 1. watch.

I think we will still have the augmented flows to 700 at Wellsville all season Bob. Twin Lakes, Turquoise, and Clear Creek Res are all full (98% of average). Plus, like RDNEK said, they are going to move an additional 50,000 acre feet of water over from the western slope (both from the Roaring Fork/Fryingpan and the Eagle/Homestake projects). That water has to be moved downstream to be distributed to water users (mostly Aurora and Colorado Springs). 50k is a lot of water.

A big part of it will be how much of that water they move this summer, and how much of it they hold to move over the fall/winter...

 

[deepsouthpaddler]

Was the ark augmented flow program in place in 2002?

 

[Andy H.]

Was the ark augmented flow program in place in 2002?

Uh, yes.

There just wasn't any water to move.

 

[cmsummit]

50k is a lot of water.

works out to an equivalent of 600cfs for 42 days.

 

[Nathan]

In 2002 the Ark reservoirs weren't full before the low snow pack. Currently Twin is at 100,000 AF, Turquoise 67,000 AF and Clear Creek 7,800 AF.

Water that is moved from the west slope likely wont touch the Ark. It will be in Lake Creek, like RDNEK said, but it is piped through the Homestake pipeline direct from Twin Lakes.

 

[mania]

The Durango Herald 04/06/2012 | Southwest Colorado headed for a drought?

 

[lmyers]

In 2002 the Ark reservoirs weren't full before the low snow pack. Currently Twin is at 100,000 AF, Turquoise 67,000 AF and Clear Creek 7,800 AF.

Water that is moved from the west slope likely wont touch the Ark. It will be in Lake Creek, like RDNEK said, but it is piped through the Homestake pipeline direct from Twin Lakes.

Your absolutely right Nathan.

I forgot they pipe most of the water for CS and Aurora directly out of the reservoir.

There is a little more information about the whole program here:

USGS Colorado - Upper Arkansas River Basin

for anyone interested.