******, why do you have to ruin my hopes and dreams of 4 grand on the Ark. I don't think it will ever be that high again there are too many places they catch is to send it to the front range. I have high hopes this year though of 2205.
I know a number of people who have done it above 4 and even 6 thousand. Personally I'm hoping it will break 4 but I don't know how realistic that is. It has been above 3 so many times in the last 10 years that I think estimates under that may be a bit low. I'm praying for a big one.
Which location is the default "peak" location. There are so many spots. Long term average is about 2500 in the gorge according to usgs data. Upper ark snowpack is a bit above average. I would say 2700 in the gorge.
I don't think you will see 4G's in the Ark.
In the past ten years the Ark has broken 3000cfs 5 times. Currently the ark is at 75% of the ten year average for snow pack. I am no math wizard but it doesn't look real promising for the Ark to have big water. And, the only reason that the ark snowpack is that high is because the freemont pass snotel site is high.
You definitely are no math wizard. The graph looks crappy because of the lower drainage areas (BELOW THE GORGE) have no snow. The upper areas are plum full of the white stuff. My suggestion would be for you to leave "paradise" for a day and drive north to the Freemont Pass area...your view may change. :lol:
MATH 101: A+B+C+D+E= X : divide X by 5 = average. A graph is an average that is calculated on all of the drainages. If 2 drainages have very low numbers, then that will GREATLY affect the "average." If you look at each individual drainage you will see that the drainages that start from Salida up to the source ---Freemont 112%, Brumley(Independence) 107%, Apishapa 100%, Porphyry Creek 85% --- are doing very well. The drainages below the Royal Gorge are really low. Remember last year? It was the dead opposite. Low numbers at the upper drainages, and high numbers at the lower drainages. What was the peak flow from that? It was bigger than ******'s "PESSIMISTIC" 1850CFS guess.
The peak flow will depend on May's weather. Wet and rainy it will go BIG...dry, windy, and hot it will be much lower.
Marko is right about the snow in the upper basin and lack there of in the lower, but where are you getting those percentages? The snotel report I checked for today says 120% and 70% for freemont and brumley respectively. From just looking at the percentages and history of snow and flows, I'm going with 3500 @ nathrop. Depends if we get one early, quick warmup or if the temps fart around till late june, we'll see, 4k could be possible if the weather does it right.
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