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Libertarianism works well when there are almost no people coming into frequent contact with one another. But in a crowded City, not so much. It's working fine on Mars for the time being...
 

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I wish to disagree with you on the cancellations are restricted to initial lottery entrants modification. At this point and time I only apply for the trips with dates I really want (I'm not rich). Then later search for cancelations on most any river that will fit my schedule to raft when I do not win. So instead of applying to every lottery I just do a few favorites. If I could not pick up cancelations on rivers I did not apply for originally than I would be forced to spend more money than I really can afford on the lotteries to begin with.
I understand this point of view, BUT if cancellations were not open to all comers, then you would have better odds of actually getting a cancellation on one of those rivers you really wanted bad enough to apply for in the first place, because the cancellations would be open to a far smaller pool.

Honestly, what raises your odds best is having friends who will invite you. Odds are low for any one person, but when one person gets it 15, 20, 25 people get to go on that one person's trip. I mean, how many lottery rivers have you gone on over the last 10 years compared to actual lottery hits?
 

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Have you ever seen any sort of marketing by Booz to suggest Booz has pushed demand for river permits? No. It's real demand, and if there is anything pushing it it's users and guide services on social media, not Booz. River permits are a rec.gov flyspeck. 90,000 campsites all over the country. That's at least some money. But it's still a flyspeck. 18 million a year for ten years? Booz has annual revenue north of 6 billion. C'mon guys. An online reservation system is not the problem.

Also, helmets are smart. No lie, the helmet posts reminded me yesterday that I should get a couple more so that there's one for each of us in my family. And so I ordered two on sale.

you guys increased my helmet demand.
I think the revamped Rec.gov platform itself, with the consolidation of nearly all river permit lotteries into a relatively easy to use online shopping environment, is a driver for the significant increase in demand for permit applications. I think they made it so that nearly every river person is now applying for all the rivers, since they don’t have to find the correct BLM or FS webpage, download the application and mail it in. Plus the looky loos from all over are jumping in because it only cost $6 to dream. I'd be willing to bet that other awesome places (Yosemite, So. Utah, etc) have seen steep increases in applicants just because it is just a mouse click away. BAH happened to be the one that did it, but it was inevitable.
 

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I understand this point of view, BUT if cancellations were not open to all comers, then you would have better odds of actually getting a cancellation on one of those rivers you really wanted bad enough to apply for in the first place, because the cancellations would be open to a far smaller pool.
If you are going that far... why not just make it so that, if someone cancels or doesn't accept the date, they take everyone who also applied for that date in the lottery and randomly draw one of them and offer it to them? If that person doesn't take it...then so on down the list. That seems like a fair an equitable way to make sure people who entered a lottery get a better chance.

I know more then a few people who have talked about having a "sniping script" that allows people to do in miliseconds what it takes a normal human with a mouse and keyboard 10-30 seconds. Allowing other lottery applicants first chance would eliminate that. I guess BAH wouldn't get even more $6 permit apps in a cancellation lottery if they went that way though.

To your previous point... it seems pretty obvious to me that having river permits prominently displayed on the front page of Rec dot suck, sending emails out advertising them, and making it VERY easy for people to apply will increase demand for permits. I've seen plenty of posts here and on facebook from people who got a permit, don't have any river runner friends and are posting to find info on how it all works. I'd say that is a small proportion of inexperienced river permit holders. Put some pretty pictures up, make it seem like an adventure, and people will come. I mean... if you read an article and saw how pretty the MFS is complete with hot springs... I'd probably consider applying too.

Its pretty obvious that running rivers is becoming more popular. Historically, it has been mostly comprised of people nearing retirement and their families plus a few weirdo dirtbag types living the river rat life. That is obviously a generalization, but even in the last few years I've seen a lot more groups in the 20-30 year old range getting out on permitted rivers. Priorities have change a lot in the last decade and it seems people are prioritizing getting out on rivers over staying home and working all the time.

When was the last time that you heard of a corporation like BAH not trying to drive profits harder? You don't become a company with a $6 billion annual revenue by saying no to $18 million a year plus all the permit fees you can drive demand for. Maybe its not a huge number, but its at least part of the factor of more permits being applied for every year.
 

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If you are going that far... why not just make it so that, if someone cancels or doesn't accept the date, they take everyone who also applied for that date in the lottery and randomly draw one of them and offer it to them? If that person doesn't take it...then so on down the list. That seems like a fair an equitable way to make sure people who entered a lottery get a better chance.
I’d be unlikely to ever get another lottery run. But that doesn’t make you wrong.
 

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I understand this point of view, BUT if cancellations were not open to all comers, then you would have better odds of actually getting a cancellation on one of those rivers you really wanted bad enough to apply for in the first place, because the cancellations would be open to a far smaller pool.

Honestly, what raises your odds best is having friends who will invite you. Odds are low for any one person, but when one person gets it 15, 20, 25 people get to go on that one person's trip. I mean, how many lottery rivers have you gone on over the last 10 years compared to actual lottery hits?
Twenty six lottery river trips, five won by me. Ten by picking up a cancelation and 11 by invite from a winner. I do very well at picking up cancelations do to being a very persistent and determined guy.
 

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@WyBackCountry Did you get an email denial? I know the website says they only notify winners of the lottery and I haven't gotten a denial email for that yet. Just curious. I can't remember what they usually do or if they changed that notification system in the last couple years.
 

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Uh, actual river nights are a little bit scarce, and are getting scarcer as more people join the sport, but still aren't nearly as scarce as winning lottery entries?
Sorry I'm not sure I quite follow. I was mostly tongue in cheek adding onto Bighorn. My point was I feel the powers of losing but still find cancellations or a group needing an extra degenerate rafter at least once a year. Even if it is an easy overnight like WW.
 

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No wins for me this year, but one invite from a guy I did not know but invited him on a Deso trip 3 years ago. This will be the 4th trip we have done together since then. He never talks politics and always brings a girl with a beautiful smile that can cook better than him. Perfect rafting buddy IMHO.
Man am I going to miss the smith this year 😥
 
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