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bummer, was hoping for the best this year, but hey next may is just around the corner!

May 1st CBRFC Inflow Forecast drops 15 KAF more, any Managed Release (Spill) is extremely unlikely. Unfortunately even with some snow in the mountains last weekend, the precipitation was less than normal for April and the May 1st forecast dropped an additional 15,000 acre feet. The way that works through the 2016 McPhee operations, we will not fill McPhee and there will be no spill. The runoff just didn�t show up as expected in April and McPhee remains 80,000 AF from full or down about 19 feet. We expect runoff to increase rapidly, but so will irrigation. The forecast reflects changed conditions relative to what it looked like a month ago based on precipitation and initial runoff inflows. It would take an extreme wet event, a 10% probability based on the last 30 years of record, like last May to fill McPhee & spill at this point. We will continue to monitor, but will expect the next potential boating release to be in May 2017.
 

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My bad, found a missing comma.

Just having fun. We should not trash on efforts by gov agencies to be transparent and get info out.
 

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Did they spill water last year? I know they got a lot of rain in May of 15, but I don't remember there being a release.... must need a massive snow year to have excess water beyond irrigation demands. Sad.
 

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Fixed the spelling in the title and made it a little more clear what the thread's about.

Bummer. I was hoping to get down there too this year...
 

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Looks like the snowpack in SW Colorado is running a little below average. Lately "average" snowpack seems to happen far less than 50% of the time. It also seems that the snowpack needs to be at least average to have any hope of even a weekend of releases.

co_update_snow.jpg
 

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This graph tells most of the story for the Dolores. It never peaked near average for snowpack but has been never dropped as fast either for the month of April due to some of the recent storms. April recharged some of the loss from Feb-March but not close to enough. By watching the reservior the last three weeks it was obvious a spill was not going to happen.

Its been another odd year in the SW. These relatively warm-to-hot midwinter spells are killing snowpack and therefor our river runoffs.

Haven't been down the Dolores in far too long. Can't wait for a year when I can see Ponderosa Gorge again. Just not sure when that is going to be since our "good" years in this region are still leaving us 25% below average.

Phillip
 

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Well,

I'd be willing to wager that the present snowpack has been inaccurately gauged, the reservoir will reach full pool, and the Dam crew will have to spill water.

The spillage, however, will come in the form of a poorly planned slow leak that never reaches "boatable flows".
 

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I cannot account for the intent of the reservoir managers nor predict potentially nefarious choices.

That said, at least for the NRCS graphs above, I do believe they measure the drainage the same year-in-year-out. There is always a chance that the long-term monitoring of the basin will not accurately reflect melt-off into the reservoir, similar to criticisms we see with the Ark Basin reports. That said, it would seem the general annual picture remains accurate.

Inflow is definitely increasing and therefor affecting pool level but from the sounds of it they are now also increasing irrigation releases for the season. The pool being 19 feet low right now does not bode well for a traditional management release for May. Maybe later?

Hopefully the thoughtful actions of boating advocates in multiple organizations will affect future boatable releases. But from what I understand, correct me if I am wrong, the current regime is prioritized for fish conservation and agriculture which don't always overlap nicely with traditional recreational boating below the dam.

I think those with packrafts will still get a chance at floating Ponderosa from the looks of it though.
 

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Not sure what the flows were but, I drove through Slickrock on my way to the Juan about a month ago. It was definitely GTG for a ducky or PR.
This is my backyard. I may have to buy a ducky just for the Doe.
Very disappointed:(
 

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Just came to me. Good to go? Used too consider 750 cfs minimum flow for raft. Never gave much thought to duckies
 
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