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Discussion Starter #1
Anyone else get the email?

Sounds like a rational, common-sense idea and approach to the 4 Rivers Lottery. Please comment before March 15 and let them know you approve (or disapprove) of the lottery.

I'm also going to add a comment that local (Idaho) boaters should have additional applications in the lottery as well. :cool:
 

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I'm not sure if Buzzards, want to start working on advocacy, but as long as the water is low I would not mind compiling comments posted to this thread and submit them. Here's the email in case you did not get it...



Dear Four Rivers Lottery Applicant,

The Four Rivers Lottery Group is exploring the potential of moving to weighted lotteries by the 2015 floating season. A document has been posted on our website discussing some details about how weighted lotteries might be developed.

We want to know what you think of the idea of moving to a weighted lottery in general, and specifically by each river.

The best way to share your opinions and ideas is to send an email to: [email protected] with a subject line that starts with “Weighted Lottery”, or you can send us a letter at: Middle Fork Ranger District, HC 63 Box 1669, Challis, ID 83226, or fax it to: 208-879-4198. To be most useful to us, please submit your comments by March 15, 2013.

To help us quantify your responses, please tell us whether you support or disapprove of a weighted lottery and identify which river(s) your comments are directed towards.

A detailed description of our proposal is on our website at: Salmon-Challis National Forest - Recreation Passes & Permits .

In a separate document, also posted to our website, we have prepared some FAQs for boaters who have more questions. At the end of the FAQs you will find the application statistics for the past few years.
 

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I don't like that you have to apply EVERY year or lose your points. It will just encourage frivolous apps and lost dates for those that are serious. If they are a knucklehead and do this for an Aug 15 date or later, then that's really crappy. What's an alternate solution? Allow up to one year break in those 9 years? That doesn't seem like it would have much negative of an impact on the plan, but give people a tiny bit of leeway.

Otherwise it seems pretty good to me.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
I agree.

I honestly don't see what the problem would be with having a weighted lottery that doesn't require applicants to apply every year.

If I apply for the MFSR every year from 2015-2019 and lose, I have 5 "points" accrued... let's say I take 5 years off from applying... well, I've still missed out on 5 consecutive years of drawing a permit.

I don't see why we should have to apply every year.
 

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4 Rivers Weighted Lottery - To the Buzz Forum Adminstrators

It would be really nice if someone could start a set of "Talking Points" on here that we could all comment on. The goal would be to find common ground and then we could all use the talkiing points to submit our personal comments. Comments on regulations are judged on the number of comments received and how many make similar comments.

To the Buzz Administrator...what would be the best way to accomplish this?
 

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I agree.

I honestly don't see what the problem would be with having a weighted lottery that doesn't require applicants to apply every year.

If I apply for the MFSR every year from 2015-2019 and lose, I have 5 "points" accrued... let's say I take 5 years off from applying... well, I've still missed out on 5 consecutive years of drawing a permit.

I don't see why we should have to apply every year.
I think it is to reward the people that actually are trying regularly, and avoid "banking" and using those in a few cherry picked years. If everyone can just rack their points up and up, then what's the point as the majority of people will have a ton of points? This favors those that apply all the time (which I do) and so I favor it. I just don't favor it 100%. The ghost date, even if it is only allowed to be used every other or every 3rd year, would help cull out the fair weather folks.
 

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so on the Grand Canyon preferance for unsuccessfull applicants goes away, and the Salmon/Selway it starts?? Anyone know the rational for doing away with it on the Grand?
 

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I have a friend who has applied for a Main Salmon and Middle Fork permit every year for 20 years without drawing a permit. I'm betting he would love this idea!
 

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A change I would like to see

I've been applying for these darn things for 20+ years now and what I would like to see is an option on the application of:

"would take ANY date between xx/xx/xx and yy/yy/yy."

As far as I understand it I could be, theoretically, the 5th person picked in the lottery out of 1000s of applicants and not get a launch because the previous 4 people received all of the lotto dates that I had applied for. I know this is the case with the Grand and probably Idaho too.


Would like to consider the pros and cons of this "just give me any date if I've won the lotto" option.

Mike
 

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A weighted lottery sounds good on the front end, but what if you draw during the first year (which is good!). Are you willing to be at a disadvantage (less points) for every year thereafter until most or all the boaters in front of you go down the river? Seems to me that there's nothing more fair than pure randomness, where everyone has the same chance to draw.

The odds went to crap when applicants could put in for all 4 rivers instead of just one.
 

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I've been applying for these darn things for 20+ years now

Yep! I think this is a common story! I feel that if a weighted system comes, people would need to put in for 20 years just to get a shot.

IDK, I kinda like it just the way it is. everyone has the same chance every year.
 

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As an avid hunter I have been dealing with a weighted lottery for tags in oregon my whole life.... In the oregon hunting lottery its weighted so that the people with the most points draw first then the trickle down effect... It has got to the point where most of the best tags are once in a lifetime... the wenaha unit for elk takes 16 points to draw.. so 16 years of unsucessful draws... if you where a child putting in now you will never draw it in your lifetime.. you can also put in for what are called point savers which I think would be an awesome idea if we did go to this... In oregon if you dont apply one year you lose all your points.. but say your best friend is getting married when you go, you can apply for a point saver.. still cost money to apply and you still gain a point, but without any chance of drawing. I personally like the suspense of not noing weather im going to draw.. and knowing I have just as much of a chance as the next guy... I think the point system is great to start with especially if you got on board the first year it started... but if you where a new rafter five or ten years down the road it would be discouraging knowing that all these people are ahead of you.. I also feel for those people you have 20 plus years of not getting a permit but I also know they go on trips with other people all the time.
 

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this sytem they are talking about implementing is obviously better than the oregon weighted hunting lottery but what happens when your group reaches the top of the pool.. you have 3 people with eight points and you all draw... there goes all your points and your back too the bottom for eight mnore years and you got one float out of it. the point saver could help here.. if you know you have several people at the top of the class have one put in or two put in for a point saver soo that your not all sent to the bottom of the pool again..
 

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It would be nice if they included some sort of penalty for anyone who applies for a Middle Fork launch after Aug. 15 and then cancels it (you can't pick up cancellations after this date). Since they are effectively wasting a launch date for everyone, I would favor a one year penalty once they start applying for the Middle Fork again. They can still apply the next year, but they don't accrue a bonus chance for that year.
Since I and my friends have been applying for a MF permit for many years (some as many as 20 years) without a draw, I would be ok with increasing my odds, even if it's just a one time deal. Then after that, we just go back to applying, being denied, and getting our usual post season permits. At least I'd have one regular season MF trip before I'm too old to go, or rowing that big river in the sky.
 

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I have no problem with a weighted lottery if the playing field was level. I have heard of people spamming the lottery with multiple email accounts to ensure they get a permit. I think some type of validation of ID with a reward or penalty in the weighted system would be good.
 

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I have no problem with a weighted lottery if the playing field was level. I have heard of people spamming the lottery with multiple email accounts to ensure they get a permit. I think some type of validation of ID with a reward or penalty in the weighted system would be good.
You must be referring to spamming a weighted lottery ---- I'm not sure how that could work in the existing lottery. Your recreation.gov account has a real name associated with it that has to match your drivers license. I think they would catch on if they saw 124 applicants named Avatard T. Jones.
 

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All I know is I was talking to some guy at a ski shop, and he said that is how he guaranties his permit. He may have been talk s---, I don't know. It would make me feel better if the forest service was smarter than that, but I have little faith in government.
 

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All I know is I was talking to some guy at a ski shop, and he said that is how he guaranties his permit. He may have been talk s---, I don't know. It would make me feel better if the forest service was smarter than that, but I have little faith in government.
Well it could be a private run lottery but then you would only draw a permit if you were connected to someone

As i recall on the grand you can't be an alternate TL on more than one permit so they must track this
 

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I waited 10 years for my first Grand permit... They now seem much easier to get through the weighted lottery. At least through the available launch date/secondary lottery...
I have been applying in the Four Rivers Lottery for 20+ years and never "won" a permit. I have had better luck with pre-permit season launches and late season cancellations.
Are the same people getting permits every year? I kind of like the idea of a weighted lottery, but not sure if it will make a difference.
S
 
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