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I know some of the brighter minds here have analyzed the 4 rivers statistics. I can't seem to find the thread (note to MB Moderators...it would really help if you upgraded the search function to allow more specificity).

Can anyone point me in the right direction?

Thanks all
 

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I found this. Here ya go.

It's pretty depressing to look at a 1 in 25 probability of getting a permit. You should just save your money and not even bother applying. :)
 

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I am 0 in 9 hopefully this year will be luckiercause i cant wait till im 70
Wow. You are mooning the Amtrak = awesome, as long as I am not on that train. Nice pic of the kid on the car hood too.

So if you don't want to wait, just grab a late May.....:rolleyes:

Or the first week of October. You will have zero competition for that date.

Except me. And there is plenty of room to spread out.
 

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What's the water level likely to be then?
All depends on the snowpack. I have launched at that time at 1.45 feet or about 450 cfs and I have also seen almost two feet or around 900 cfs a couple of times.

One mid October trip we launched at 2.4 feet on a rain and melting snow spike and did it in three days and one hour. Just because we could. We saw no one except for the very surprised gal at the B. I guess my buddy saw the two rangers when he went up to sign off on the permit.

this year it is too early to predict. We started strong but not much in the last two weeks except on the northern side of the Middle Fork which helps the flow at the bottom but doesn't add much to the top where you need it.
 

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any links you want to share weather stations or snowtel sites that feed the middle fork??
I use Snotel sites extensively but that is often to gauge whether we are doing Marsh Creek or digging out the road to Boundary Creek. So my research is geared towards the peak snow experience and when that melts out. In 2003 or so I worked an August trip for a commercial outfitter and we flew in to Thomas Creek which is 12 miles below Indian Creek. For once I was glad to have flown in. The cfs off the top was around 300, I have seen it at 450 cfs fully loaded and it was fine but I don't need to see it much lower than that. And when I say fine it means it was within my threshold of pain. In talking with others I find that my tolerance for pain may be much higher than others who would not consider anything below 900 cfs fine. YMMV.

This is a helpful overview for the state. I look at current and then compared to median peak for day to day to check snowpack progress.

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/report...rt=Idaho&format=SNOTEL+Snowpack+Update+Report

For road opening specifically I use the Banner Snotel and especially going into the history where I can compare to several other years that we launched Marsh or opened the road on a certain date to assess viability. I am on here so much I am able to do temps in Celsius as that is what they are on this site.

Banner Summit (312) - Site Information and Reports

To get more info on snowpack's around the area I go to the Deadwood ( the other side of the top of the Pistol Creek Drainage)

Deadwood Summit (439) - Site Information and Reports

Mill Creek shows what the NE part of the drainage is doing. And may have more bearing on the low flow part of the summer.

Mill Creek Summit (627) - Site Information and Reports

To compare snowpack in the Wood River Valley vs the upper Middle Fork I use the Galena Snotel
Galena Summit (490) - Site Information and Reports

They used to use a state based snotel approach but now they are using a zoomable interactive map which is cool since I don't have to go back and forth from Montana to Idaho to figure Selway snowpacks.

Tinyurl version of below link: NRCS National Water and Climate Center | Mapper 1.1

NRCS National Water and Climate Center | Mapper 1.1
 
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