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Remember that fire last summer on the Middle Fork of The Salmon? Those trees are going to be coming down river like you can’t believe in the near future. Please be safe this early season. It’s gonna be something to behold!
 

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Moderator's Note:

Rivers tacked the above post onto an old thread from last year that wasn't really on topic. Rather than that, this will now be the MFS thread where folks can post Boundary road opening info, wood reports, and other relevant MFS related info.

Please post 2019 MFS info here so its all in one place.

Thanks!

-AH
 

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Seems that trees take 2-5 years to come down unless they burned right at the water line.

Might be 2021-2022 for heavy trees in the river.
 

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My group of 10 has a permit may 30th launch!! Any updates on road access and wood would be appreciated!!!
The road is still solidly snowed shut with about five feet of snow. And there is a ton of wood on, in or near to the river. :rolleyes:

Avalanche slides will have moved some debris in if high runoff doesn't materialize.
What does this mean? The avalanches have already moved the debris (woody and otherwise) into position.

Are you expecting high run off not to materialize? I certainly think a higher flow will happen. What would cause high runoff not to happen? Is there a global chilling event that no one has been apprised of?

Curious minds want to know......
 

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OK river psychics....What are ya'll guessing as far as a road opening date for Boundary creek?

Guesses on levels on May 29th?

I am in AK now and jonesing to get on the MFS and but don't have a feel for whats happening in that neck of the woods.

Thoughts? Feelings? Reactions?
 

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Right now its snowing around stanley and the snow pack is still building.. the snow wont really start to come off up there until it stops freezing hard at night.. right now that is not the case... who knows what the comming weeks will bring. Its going to have to warm up a bit.. might be huge if you can get in.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Mountain Buzz mobile app
 

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As of today (4/17), the snowpack is up to 138% of normal SWE at Banner Summit and the 8-14 day outlook is calling for below average temps and above average precip for the remainder of April. We haven't added much to the snowpack in the past week, but since the snowpack is normally starting to drop this time of year just holding steady makes the percentage go up.

Meanwhile, the Middle Fork half melt graph has not been updated since April 9th. In that iteration of the graph, they were comparing this year to an average snowpack year. When this graph is updated again I would not be surprised to see them start comparing this year to an above average snowpack year.
 

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Not sure which 8-14 day outlook you are using but mine shows above average temps to the end of the month.

2011 is statistically very close to where we are now, but that year was very wet and cold all the way into June. Which is why Ron likely choose 2012 to compare to even though it is slightly below our snowpack level currently.

The difference in 3 to 3.5 inches of SWE is 3 days of 70+ temps or a week of 50+ on Banner anyway. So not going to affect the road that much.

In 2012 we launched on Marsh Creek on May 17th at about 7 feet on the gauge or 10K cfs. That was the second peak. First peak was on about 4/28 at 11K cfs.

So those of you are thinking this spring is going to be HUUUUGGEEE. May be disappointed. It will not be small but 138% of average with so many dry years averaged in doesn't mean as much to me as the SWE.

We did have a lot of depth of snow this year. A lot of it was considerable drier than we normally get. Which means not as much water coming out of it. We also had almost completely bare slopes virtually everywhere in central Idaho until early February. Maybe in the more protected environment of the Snotel site that won't show but it does affect runoff in that the slopes that were bare hold more water, melt off quicker and less water hits the river.

I started a spreadsheet so I don't have to keep going back to the Snotel site.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12IRlFtaoJGPutB7krt16m9T0l8a4UuxS0140syH7Mqc/edit?usp=sharing

The upshot of all this is I am likely cancelling my May 19th as I have been invited on a June 1st that I think is likely we will be able to drive in to launch.
And fishing season is open then.....

Disclaimer: I make all this shit up. But I have been correct in my guesses more than I have been wrong. 2010 with its 9.5 foot peak did surprise but that was fueled by three days of hard rain. FWIW.

Find your bliss. :rolleyes:
 

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So last year I went through all the previous years Mtn Buzz posts to figure out when the road opened or my best guess if it wasn't completely clear and then looked at the SWE and snow depth on Banner at 4/1 and the day the road opened. Below is what I found, sorry it's not all lined up, I tried.

I'm thinking 3rd week of May for this year as long as we don't have a year like 2011 when a lot of snow came after 4/1, but a lot depends on how motivated those early season guys are.

on 4/1 Banner had 78" of snow and 28.6 SWE.

Date Road Open | SWE | Snow Depth |4/1 snow depth|SWE
5/17/2018 9.2 21 67 24.6
6/8/2017 5.5 12 95 38.8
5/15/2016 6 12 74 29.2
5/7/2015 2.5 5 31 14
5/29/2014 5 12 82 26.5
5/13/2013 5.5 10 51 20.1
5/29/2012 7 16 86 29
6/15/2011 11.5 23 81 (94 on 5/3) 28.4 (33.6 on 5/3)
 
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