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-   -   Your odds of getting a permit for each river (https://www.mountainbuzz.com/forums/f42/your-odds-of-getting-a-permit-for-each-river-102125.html)

GeoRon 01-12-2020 02:00 PM

Your odds of getting a permit for each river
 
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You can determine your odds of getting a permit for all permit rivers during the permit season by going to this link.

https://dreamflows.com/permits.php

There you will find graphs that I created and turned over to Chris Shackleton of Dreamflows to perpetuate going forward since he has an excellent engine for graphing historic river flow averages. He did an amazing job replicating and automating my work.

Your odds can be determine by consulting the blue line with blue dots. That graph line uses the right axis. Note that the right axis ranges from 0% chance at the bottom to 100% chance at the top. The odds were originally calculated by Richard Ferguson of the Rocky Mountain Canoe Club then recalculated by Chris Shackleton using updated numbers in about 2015.

For example, the Middle Fork of the Salmon graph is shown below and can be linked by the below address.

https://dreamflows.com/permits/perm.2019.001.avg.png

For the Middle Fork your chances of getting a permit during the permit season(between the solid brown vertical lines) are defined by the "U" shaped blue line ranging from near 0% up to 33% at the end of the permit season. Your odds are very poor during the peak permit season(dashed brown vertical lines).

Good river flows are identified as between solid green horizontal lines. Optimal river flows are identified as between dashed green horizontal lines.

Other significant details and dates are included on each graph for each river.

theusualsuspect 01-12-2020 02:03 PM

DRE still has a document with those graphs that I believe you created years ago. It has all the rivers as well as descriptions and other info. Great quick reference document. It can be downloaded from their website under downloads at the bottom of the page if I remember correctly. Thanks.

GeoRon 01-12-2020 02:20 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by theusualsuspect (Post 757039)
DRE still has a document with those graphs that I believe you created years ago. It has all the rivers as well as descriptions and other info. Great quick reference document. It can be downloaded from their website under downloads at the bottom of the page if I remember correctly. Thanks.

Thanks theusualsuspect, I gave that document to Chris and he ran with it.

The quick reference for permit rivers on DRE may be dust in the wind but I have attached it from my archive of presentations. I have not updated it since presented in 2015 or so. It is out of date but still useful.

GeoRon 01-12-2020 03:34 PM

BTW, if you see any corrections please report them by posting them on this thread on MB.

Maintaining this data is a substantial effort requiring considerable time. If it were a collective effort of the MB community it can be updated quickly and annually perhaps. Note that the data has not been updated for the 2020 season. Probably not many changes but perhaps a few.

theusualsuspect 01-12-2020 03:51 PM

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The version on their website appears to have been updated. I didn't go through the whole document but the Deso section was updated as of Dec. of 2018.

I have attached below if you want to compare/contrast.

GeoRon 01-12-2020 04:51 PM

Your are correct!!!!!!!!!

I forgot. What a drag it is getting old(and cranky). We gave an update to that presentation a few years ago and they undertook upon themselves the community service of updating that document.

I'm thinking it was Travis and perhaps also Carter that undertook that task. Good guys!

Let's add to the MB community the service of updating that document.

I will make sure that DRE will reconnect this document to the dead link on their "Downloads" page!! I'll connect with Chris once DRE does it's job of fixing that link and see if he will reconnect to it like he'd done in the past on his "Permits" pages.

Thank you very much,
Ron

griz 01-12-2020 08:43 PM

For those with without pocket protectors in their daily wardrobe....

the more interesting the run= the more piss poor your odds.

Go figure.

Bwick84 01-13-2020 01:09 PM

Very cool, thanks for posting.

Andy H. 01-13-2020 02:23 PM

OK, that does it, I'm just going to boycott applying for lotteries and recommend everyone else do so too!

MNichols 01-13-2020 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy H. (Post 757125)
OK, that's it, I'm just going to boycott applying for lotteries and recommend everyone else do so too!


I second you all boycotting all the lotteries too. Good Call Andy


(now perhaps I've got a chance of getting a permit of my own LOL)


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