Probability of Winning A Grand Canyon Permit - Mountain Buzz
 

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Old 10-16-2015   #1
 
San Jose, CA, California
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Probability of Winning A Grand Canyon Permit

I was curious if anyone, had an updated rendition of the graph linked below?


https://rrfw.org/RaftingGrandCanyon/..._Delagarza.png

A better under standing of month to month permit probability would be helpful. I understand that it is easer to get a permit in the winter compared to the fall and spring months. But graphed data built from lottery stats from 2010-2016 would be helpful.

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Old 10-16-2015   #2
 
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Looking at that graph makes it like a sure bet for winter trips?

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Old 10-16-2015   #3
 
Aurora, Colorado
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Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
Looking at that graph makes it like a sure bet for winter trips?

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Keep in mind that that graph is plotted on a logarithmic scale, so, all those lines that look like they're way up by 100% are really somewhere between 10 and 100. The 50% line should probably be between 2/3 and 3/4 of the way from 10 to 100, so the bulk of those lines are probably around 50%.

Nonetheless, much better odds in winter. . .

I'll call the creator of that- not sure how much he's on the buzz, and see if he'll post up another one.
Cheers
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Old 10-16-2015   #4
 
Denver, Colorado
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I've decided not to open my emails because until I do there is still a chance that I won the lottery.
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Old 10-16-2015   #5
 
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I've decided not to open my emails because until I do there is still a chance that I won the lottery.

Lol. Wouldn't matter if you did at this point. You would have had to have your $200-$400 deposit in by today at noon. None of my family got a follow up, maybe next time.


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Old 10-16-2015   #6
 
San Jose, CA, California
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As it stands the statical data provided by the park is not as usable as it could be.

Are there any database engineer's out there that would like to work on a project improving that data?

In theory once configured appropriately in a data base queries could be designed which would show stats for winning a permit on a given date in the future based on data from the past.

That data could then be used to create a better graph. Thoughts?
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Old 10-16-2015   #7
 
Aurora, Colorado
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. . .show stats for winning a permit on a given date in the future based on data from the past.
The tricky part about that is that Sept. 4, for example, is a Tuesday some years, and a Saturday other years. The dates don't always follow through year after year. With shorter trips (high use season) it's more pronounced to see launches on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday more difficult to get because many people want to have only 2 weeks away from work, rather than parts of 3.
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Old 10-16-2015   #8
 
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Originally Posted by climbdenali View Post
The tricky part about that is that Sept. 4, for example, is a Tuesday some years, and a Saturday other years. The dates don't always follow through year after year. With shorter trips (high use season) it's more pronounced to see launches on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday more difficult to get because many people want to have only 2 weeks away from work, rather than parts of 3.
Yeah, but it would still be better than what they've got now. And they manage to do it for the 4 Rivers permits. Should be possible for the GC, however with the government shrinkage that's going on, the person to do it probably retired and their position is vacant (like Logan suggests Kara Lamb's position may be on this thread).

Note: the data in the graph are from '07 - '11 lotteries, I'd be interested in knowing if it's changed any now that the legacy waitlist trip leaders have all worked out of the system, or seeing what the stats are since they're not influencing permit distributions.

-AH
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Old 10-17-2015   #9
 
., Washington, D.C.
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That log scale graph is very course information.
I have used the numbers from the NPS site:
http://www.nps.gov/grca/planyourvisi...l-riv-docs.htm

Looking at the time of year that I want to launch I then adjust for day of the week in the historical data to smooth things out. There is a noticeable bias in which day of the week people bid for though that is seasonal too as mentioned earlier and not totally consistent year to year.
There doesn't seem to be any magic technique as a lot of people are doing the same analysis. My group got lucky this year for a fall launch... I take credit for my amazing statistical prowess but reality is that it is probably just luck.
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Old 10-17-2015   #10
 
San Jose, CA, California
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@ climbdenali - I agree with your thought of days of the week being a factor in your chances of winning.

Even without a computer program you could review the lottery stats from every Monday the first week of June from 2010-2015 and run those numbers.

You could then compare them with every Saturday within the first week of June in the same time range. That is actual, data.

A SQL application would make it possible run queries based on fields for a range of dates or days or months or years. The hard part is uploading the data and writing and testing the algorithms.
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