Illinois Predictions?? - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 11-15-2015   #1
 
Ashland, Oregon
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Illinois Predictions??

Looking for runnable fall flows on the Illinois...

Any advice on the best weather gauge to watch for ...Selma, OR?

Any predictions for this week of Monday 11/16?

Any larger predictions for this fall?

What sort of precipitation event is needed for a runnable flow?

Thanks much for any helpful beta and links....be safe out there!--bongo

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Old 11-15-2015   #2
swimming
 
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Your probably better off with this question on Pacific Northwest Rafters
You don't really predict the Illinois out so to speak , when she is ready she is when she isn't she's not. I am looking at next weekend if it isn't snowy. I run from 3K down to 1000. Knowing what makes those conditions is a whole different spectrum of knowledge and experience you learn over time. That canyon can be a little bitch and has no problem washing someone out to Agness like a drowned rat.
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Old 11-15-2015   #3
 
Ashland, Oregon
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Thanks, will check our NW rafters...

Do you have recommendation for best weather sites to watch besides just watching the gauge ?
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Old 11-15-2015   #4
swimming
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongo View Post
Thanks, will check our NW rafters...

Do you have recommendation for best weather sites to watch besides just watching the gauge ?
I can chat with you about it over on the other site, Will on the local forum is a wealth of knowledge on that river as well
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Old 11-15-2015   #5
 
Medford, Oregon
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The Illinois is very flashy it goes up and down rapidly. If you catch it at a reasonable level 3000 cfs or so with nice weather this time of year you need to ride it fairly fast, because it drops fast. In spring with snowmelt it is a bit more even, unless a storm moves in. It is very dangerous at high water, but you can stay in place until it drops which happens fast. I was the ranger on the Illinois when we lost 2 and rescued 10. The gauge went from 1900 on Sunday morning to 17,600 cfs on Monday that was rain on snowmelt in March. Flashy be careful.
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Old 11-16-2015   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rivers2run View Post
The Illinois is very flashy it goes up and down rapidly. If you catch it at a reasonable level 3000 cfs or so with nice weather this time of year you need to ride it fairly fast, because it drops fast. In spring with snowmelt it is a bit more even, unless a storm moves in. It is very dangerous at high water, but you can stay in place until it drops which happens fast. I was the ranger on the Illinois when we lost 2 and rescued 10. The gauge went from 1900 on Sunday morning to 17,600 cfs on Monday that was rain on snowmelt in March. Flashy be careful.
I remember that when the news broke, 1996 or 1997? I need to run it, I haven't and frankly I am nervous about Green wall.
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Old 11-16-2015   #7
 
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Northwest River Forecast Center/ Kerby
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Old 11-16-2015   #8
 
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Here...

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
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Old 11-17-2015   #9
 
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You might find this helpful. I wrote it a couple years ago. Now that we've had two brutal non-winters and hardly any rain this November, I'm starting to rethink some of it...

Illinois River – November 20/21, 2010 | Oregon Rafting
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Old 11-17-2015   #10
 
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One other thing - keep an eye on the Smith gauge. The Smith is often an early indicator for the Illinois. If they are getting hammered over there, it's likely the Illinois will catch a chunk of the rain as well. Keep in mind, the CNRFC website (CNRFC - Hydrology - River Guidance - Graphical RVF - CREC1) does not update over the weekend, but USGS does. Sometimes the predictions show the Smith with a healthy bump but nothing on the Illinois (http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/station/fl...G&v=1447774460). If that's the case there's still hope because if the storm misses a little to the west the drainages are right next to each other.

Another tool is to go to the Trip Reports page (Trip Reports | Oregon Rafting) and filter by river. Most of the trip reports show what the USGS gauge was just before, during, and slightly after the trip. It can be helpful to see flow history for actual trips that have happened.

Hope that helps.
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