FORECASTS FOR EASTWARD RUNOFF - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 05-07-2019   #1
 
GeoRon's Avatar
 
Golden, Colorado
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FORECASTS FOR EASTWARD RUNOFF

I have received many request for east slope runoff (10-day) forecasts, e.g. Smith, Platte's, Ark, Clear Ck, Poudre, Grapevine, Chama, Rio Grande and many more(Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico drainage's).

Most and perhaps all of these flows are valve and knob controlled.

I've poached enough of this data to say that I'm frustrated. (Hey man, I'm among the first to want to know.)

The river forecast offices of the National Weather Service do not generate model data that is offered online for these eastward drainage's.

I post this hoping that someone will contradict this determination and say it ain't so and this is where it is!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Old 05-07-2019   #2
 
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Twin Lakes are pretty well drained down now, so it's unlikely to see any significant increases in flows on the Ark until the high elevation melt starts to kick in. Considering we have moisture forecast for the next 5 days I would say flows are likely to hold very close to current levels or possibly even drop a little over the next 10 days.
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Old 05-07-2019   #3
 
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Howdy Imyers,

You've always provided brilliant on site observations. I've admired you knowledge of currant conditions. How do you do it?

If only we could convert your experienced observations into digital projections of likely future flow; 1,2,3,4 out to 10 days to match what I've been about to download from the River Forecast Centers.

Elsewhere the Forecast Offices suck in data from the NWS and the valve turn'ers to project future flow(And only slightly does nature control future eastward runoff of our rivers of greatest interest).

Let's continue to feed into this process if possible.
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Old 05-07-2019   #4
 
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What’s different about the east slope rivers forecasting centers? Is it a missing API to tap into their forecast or is it just not available or not able to be compiled?

Appreciate your forecasts and the work that goes into them. Since I see the same flows and data that I look at for those rivers I am missing something in your process.

Understand we cannot ever forecast people turning valves and the manual moving of water, glory days.
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Old 05-07-2019   #5
 
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Ron - Thanks for pulling all this stuff together! I wish I could help with the eastern flows, but I've hunted around and don't know of anything.

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Originally Posted by kayakfreakus View Post
What’s different about the east slope rivers forecasting centers? Is it a missing API to tap into their forecast or is it just not available or not able to be compiled?
Yeah, it's weird that they don't have similar forecasting for the eastern slope as they do for the Colorado River Basin. Having finally gotten around to reading The Emerald Mile recently, I wonder if it's because after they almost lost Glen Canyon Dam in '83 due (in part) to inadequate runoff forecasts, they realized they needed the forecasts but only got funding fro the Colorado river system...
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Old 05-07-2019   #6
 
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Originally Posted by kayakfreakus View Post
Understand we cannot ever forecast people turning valves and the manual moving of water, glory days.

That's the truth. I feel pretty good about the predictions I made above, but it could always change. We might get enough rain that it bumps flows up, or it might snow 2ft and the BOR decides to drain the reservoirs lower....


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Originally Posted by GeoRon View Post
Howdy Imyers,

You've always provided brilliant on site observations. I've admired you knowledge of currant conditions. How do you do it?
Thanks GeoRon! I am just a nerd. I watch the weather and the gauges religiously, and I have good relationships with the water managers.
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