Originally Posted by jamesthomas
Hannigan meadows has gone from 9.1 SWE to 10.6 SWE in the last 3 days. No storms down there that I can see. Local dump? Blowing snow? WTF???
I'm far from an expert...but I think it has something to do with the snow becoming denser as it packs down, melts and recrystalizes.
About this time last year some huge storms started to rolled through and eventually brought the SWE up to into 14" range. No weather forecast indications of major precipitation anytime soon but that can change kinda quickly. Forecasted to be pretty cold for a while...so could be a late start to the season. Really hard to tell...its gonna take some warm temps and/or a big rain storm to kick the season off.
One of the factors that plays into things is the ground water saturation level. Right now there is snow of the ground but not much of it has soaked in. For water to travel down off the hills, first you have to saturate it enough where it doesn't want to soak in anymore and flows downhill into streams. Last year, the big storms saturated the ground thoroughly so most of the snow melt flushed into the rivers. This year, unless another big storm comes and soaks the area, its gonna be a slow burn at first.
So yeah...its looking good snow pack wise...but there are other factors in play. There will be a season....but when it starts and how big it gets is not super clear.