Last GC lottery math 4/6/2018 - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 04-12-2017   #1
 
San Jose, CA, California
Paddling Since: 1998
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Last GC lottery math 4/6/2018

Summary: Odds of winning a permit still less than 1% for the majority of dates.
data:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=825330239
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buckmanriver is offline   Reply With Quote
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Old 04-12-2017   #2
 
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Nice workup! It would be great if you could factor in each applicants points.
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Old 04-12-2017   #3
 
San Jose, CA, California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by riverdoghenry View Post
Nice workup! It would be great if you could factor in each applicants points.
Riverdog,

I am trying to understand your request better.

How specifically would you like me to factor each applications points?

Currently, the data is compiled from each using applications points as well as the winning apps points.


Thanks,

~ B
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Old 04-13-2017   #4
 
FC, Colorado
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Buck, those excel plots are looking pretty sloppy, and the whole showing odds of loosing and odds of winning is redundant. Please rework these in Matlab or C# to be considered for publication. Also please run a statistical simulation (monte carlo is preferred) to determine chances of running out of beer before day 15 of a 20 day trip if I pack a beer per river mile per person, assuming the variables of number of kayakers, number of women, and average ambient temperature are the variables driving consumption. I'm sure the park service has data on this to feed into your model. If you could have that on my desk by friday that would be greaaaaaat. Otherwise, see you in the office on saturday.
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Old 04-13-2017   #5
 
San Jose, CA, California
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Originally Posted by Shitouta View Post
If you could have that on my desk by friday that would be greaaaaaat. Otherwise, see you in the office on saturday.
I am missing my stapler. I can not get you the reports until I find the person who stole my stapler!
**********************
On a more honest note if folks would like to collaborate on analyzing this data further for that it's easier to understand and more human readable let me know.
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Old 04-13-2017   #6
Old Guy in a PFD
 
Colorado Springs, Colorado
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Well, but if you are going to include Kayakers in your beer estimate you must at minimum double the quota per mile, and that assumes you can let the rascals run a few miles ahead of you and camp at least 5 miles above them.
They might still find the energy to sneak back up river and raid the beer stocks, but you stand a 50/50 chance of them coming up the wrong side of the river and arriving after dark when crossing is a chancy proposition.
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Old 04-13-2017   #7
 
San Jose, CA, California
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Originally Posted by Schutzie View Post
your beer estimate you must at minimum double the quota per mile, and that assumes you can let the rascals run a few miles ahead of you and camp at least 5 miles above them.

Yes, Schutzie these are great points to evaluate! And what would you consider and effective baseline range QPM for front range kayakers vs west slope kayakers? And what about the plastic maggots from other states and countries?
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Old 04-17-2017   #8
 
San Jose, CA, California
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On a more real note, I put together this screencast on how to use the sheet to help improve your chances of winning a grand canyon permit. Hope it helps:

https://youtu.be/aFQ8e-B3Eqk
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Old 04-17-2017   #9
 
Rosa, At the bottom of the Lake
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Mathlab...Coffee came out my nose. Program R for the stats and Sigma Plot for the graphs.
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Old 04-17-2017   #10
 
San Jose, CA, California
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Originally Posted by GilaRobusta View Post
Mathlab...Coffee came out my nose. Program R for the stats and Sigma Plot for the graphs.
Gila,

Any interest in crunching this data yourself in the above programs?

Thanks,

~ B
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