McPhee needs 216,706 AF to fill, and the minimum CRBFC ESP forecast is 361,000 AF, so there's about 144,000 AF minimum out there. The CPC forecasts call for a warm and wet next 6-10 and 8-14 days, a pretty average April (windy, sometimes wet, typical spring stuff), and a wetter than normal April/May/June. The next few weeks should get the runoff started, and any additional rain events will just speed it up. I'm watching the Slickrock gauge to see all the mid-elevation snow melt off over the next two weeks, you could probably get a trip in somewhere if you did it quick enough. It was a very good winter at all elevations, and our drought is almost completely gone in the span of three months (it seems it will be gone from central CO this Thursday with just abnormally dry conditions as a relic of 2018's drought in the SW corner).
And if there's only 144k AF actually up there as a surplus, that is 36 days at 2,000 CFS......which seems really high to me. I know they'll be irrigating the same time they're filling this year, but the 50% forecast has 258k AF surplus, and the max (just shy of all time max) has 435k AF after you fill the reservoir.
I can't see how it's not 100% at this point, and I'm guessing by the fact they're having a meeting on April 18 the DWCD is betting it's a sure thing.