Electoral Guesswork - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 10-09-2008   #1
A Political Theorist
 
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Electoral Guesswork

Guesses on the final tally of Electoral Votes?

McCain/Palin -
Obama/Biden -

Tie Breaker - Percent of the Colorado vote for Bob Barr -
Double Tie Breaker - Earliest Guess

Prize - Four years of righteous arrogance

Hint - 538 Electoral Votes Available

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Old 10-09-2008   #2
A Political Theorist
 
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McCain/Palin - 200
Obama/Biden - 338

Tie Breaker - Percent of the Colorado vote for Bob Barr - 4%

crutch used: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
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Old 10-10-2008   #3
 
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Obama - 354
McCain - 184

Barr in Colorado - 3%
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Old 10-10-2008   #4
 
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Obama / Biden: 374
McCain / Palin: 164

Barr: 2.4%
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Old 10-11-2008   #5
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Obama/Biden-349
McCain/Palin-189

Barr- 2.4%
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Old 10-13-2008   #6
 
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Public Policy Polling: Obama lead in Colorado hits double digits

In this Public Policy Polling poll, Obama leads McCain 52% to 42%.
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Old 10-15-2008   #7
 
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Yes, I am a pessimist. Voter fraud, October suprises, false accusations, etc.

Barr: 0.9%

-d
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Old 10-15-2008   #8
 
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Livington - Check out FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right to cure your pessimism.
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Old 10-15-2008   #9
Roy
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DurangoSteve View Post
Livington - Check out FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right to cure your pessimism.
And a couple others along the same lines...

Pollster

Electoral Vote

One can never have too much data! (altho that 538 site gives "too much data" a run for it's money!)

Right now, even RealClearPolitics, which lists a bit to the right, is giving Obama a 286/158 lead with no toss-ups.

My prediction: Obama landslide--378 electors.

<--optimist here!
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Old 10-15-2008   #10
 
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I agree that 538 falls into the "too much data" category. You gotta be a statistician to truly understand all of it... which I am not. But the ARE impressively thorough in their analysis.
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