Coronavirus Thread - Page 5 - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 03-25-2020   #41
 
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Originally Posted by okieboater View Post
I would say most boaters I know including me take a line that misses the ledge hole
I suggest you scout and decide your own line
If I were TL I'd have a much clearer answer if I were asked. These talking heads are in effect TL's. So, as TL, they have an obligation to say, "don't do that" in forceful terms because a bad decision to intentional run the ledge hole is likely to significantly negatively peg the fun meter for everyone else on the trip.

What if "ledge hole" runner was making the decision for the group("follow me and just do what I do") or your were in the bow of his boat with a little paddle("just paddle hard" he tells you)? Let's keep nudging this toward real like decision making and how it might effect you.

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Old 03-25-2020   #42
 
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Your posts on this particular topic strike me as another of those

It Depends situations

To many variables in people - gear - weather etc I think
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Old 03-25-2020   #43
 
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Originally Posted by GeoRon View Post
If I were TL I'd have a much clearer answer if I were asked. These talking heads are in effect TL's. So, as TL, they have an obligation to say, "don't do that" in forceful terms because a bad decision to intentional run the ledge hole is likely to significantly negatively peg the fun meter for everyone else on the trip.

What if "ledge hole" runner was making the decision for the group("follow me and just do what I do") or your were in the bow of his boat with a little paddle("just paddle hard he tell you")? Let's keep nudging this toward real like decision making and how it might effect you.
The "talking heads" are far from "TLs" in this situation .... more like PIOs (Public information officers), The TLs are in the Incident Command Center.

hmmmm what to do in my garage.....
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Old 03-25-2020   #44
 
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I've really tried to not chime in here cuz I too have problems with "models" and "predictions"....

In general, the objective of scientific endeavor is to create models and predictions. Some are better than others, no doubt. Predicting the future is notoriously difficult, and usually subject to large uncertainties. However, it can be done. For example, I can predict what will happen if you add water to concentrated sulfuric acid (this is science capable of predicting the future).



However, to reject models and predictions validity outright is nothing but anti-science. Yes, anyone has a right to be anti-science. But in my opinion, being anti-science disqualifies someone from legitimate debate in a science field. This is essentially what actually happens to charlatans that actually try to work in science.



It is basically the exact same thinking of climate change deniers. I don't even try to reason, because this mentality bases their opinions on beliefs rather than reason.


I also know that some 'believers' might come back with strongly worded, probably name calling defenses of your right to believe as you will. Or you will claim that I improperly characterized your argument. But if I got under your skin by my comments then you need to question your own rationality.
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Old 03-25-2020   #45
 
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Originally Posted by okieboater View Post
Your posts on this particular topic strike me as another of those

It Depends situations

To many variables in people - gear - weather etc I think
Gee, intentionally running the Ledge Hole in Lava depending on people - gear - meteorological factors. I guess I need to rethink the Ledge Hole.

I've seen the ledge hole look worse than the below video, especially when it is more of a pour over. In 1982 I saw a Georgie White triple rig very accidentally go into the ledge hole. We camped down at the old helipad to patch a torn floor where we watched the next day the evacuation of all Georgie guests, most in bandages and splits.

"If they only had a tail wind?"
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Old 03-25-2020   #46
 
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GeoRon, help me understand where you got this data.... Italy is very regional and in fact northern Italy can be quite "primitive" as you say, as well as having one of the worlds largest population densities and a vastly older population.
Come on Jon, have you ever been to Northern Italy? I doubt that there are any places in Northern Italy as "primitive" as some places here in the US or even here in Colorado. It is true that they don't scrap off houses when they are 100 years old but that not primitive.
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Old 03-25-2020   #47
 
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Maybe you do need to rethink that

Depending on the flow, raft design and the raft captain it can be run
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Old 03-25-2020   #48
 
Eagle, Colorado
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Originally Posted by Nubie Jon View Post
I've really tried to not chime in here cuz I too have problems with "models" and "predictions"....

I will offer this.... The only model we have at this point is the Princess Cruise Ship... It is the only source of 100% testing...
I do not think that this says I discount models or predictions..... merely I have a problem with the ones used. I guess I could have been clearer by saying:

"...I have problems with the current models and predictions" and

"...the only accurate model we have is ...."

I would never discount the science, it is the only way we learn and move forward.... I do not subscribe though to "science" that is "massaged" to fit into a problem.... I always remember coming up with a hypothesis, doing the experiment, coming up with the answer and validating. Not taking the answer and fitting the experiment to it. Just my thoughts.
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Old 03-25-2020   #49
 
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Originally Posted by okieboater View Post
Maybe you do need to rethink that

Depending on the flow, raft design and the raft captain it can be run
Thank you okieboater for setting me straight. Although I've boated on the Fue, Bio Bio, the Grand over a dozen times, etc I still would not consider running the Ledge Hole a good idea in a gear boat. I guess I'm old school. (First, I guess, you've got to be willing to fail catastrophically, something most epidemiologist are unwilling to do when gaming a pandemic.)

I guess the below was a successful run. Like landing a plane, any landing you can walk(or swim (US Airway Flight 1549)) away from is a good one.
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Old 03-25-2020   #50
 
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Originally Posted by okieboater View Post
Maybe you do need to rethink that
Depending on the flow, raft design and the raft captain it can be run
okieboater, with respect,

Please realize, we are running the Ledge Hole in Lava at the WRONG FLOW, in the WRONG RAFT, and CERTAINLY THE WRONG RAFT CAPTAIN (with trump'fuck'ery at the helm).
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