Coronavirus Thread - Page 4 - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 03-24-2020   #31
 
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Ya know, I hope you're right. But the folks I know who know a lot more about this stuff than me say you'll be wrong. If you look at the Colorado case data from CDPHE, graphed for easy display by the CO Independent, it's showing that the cases are starting to go into the steep part of the exponential curve. We can expect hospitalizations to follow, and deaths to follow that as well.

CDPHE Data

And by the way, the Italy is dealing with a ~10% mortality rate.

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Old 03-24-2020   #32
 
Defiance, Colorado
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Andy,
that 10% is inaccurate and everyone knows it. It's derived from a math problem where the numerator is a known and the denominator is a guess based on the most severe cases (likely less than 20% of the true number if infected). Italy has the oldest population in EU. Roughly 35% of Italians smoke, but the rate is much higher in the older generations. Parts of Italy still have sanitation systems built 2000 years ago. It's not exactly an apples to apples comparison is it? Why aren't we making comparisons to Germany where the mortality rate is .3% (likely still an overstated number)? Let's see the model using Germany's mortality rate.
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Old 03-24-2020   #33
 
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I've really tried to not chime in here cuz I too have problems with "models" and "predictions"....

I will offer this.... The only model we have at this point is the Princess Cruise Ship... It is the only source of 100% testing... When you look at that data:

3711: Total passengers
712: Confirmed cases (19.1%)
587: Totally recovered (82.4%)
10: Deaths (1.4%)
Unaccounted: 119 (probably recovered)

(Johns Hopkins Data)

Yes these numbers are a little skewed because the Cruise population is older, but these I feel are true numbers (100% testing).

We are getting increased numbers due to increased testing ... its linear... We can't get a clear picture until we start getting 24 hour turn on testing. Right now we are still 5-7 DAYS to turn a test..... we are looking at last week.

Full disclosure: I am in the medical field.... and am involved in our response. Yes it has the potential to be bad.... but it also has the potential to be not bad.... we just don't know.... let's be honest no one knows.... the data just is not there... yet.

Ok .... I am going back to garage porn!
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Old 03-25-2020   #34
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nubie Jon View Post
I've really tried to not chime in here cuz I too have problems with "models" and "predictions"....

I will offer this.... The only model we have at this point is the Princess Cruise Ship... It is the only source of 100% testing... When you look at that data:

3711: Total passengers
712: Confirmed cases (19.1%)
587: Totally recovered (82.4%)
10: Deaths (1.4%)
Unaccounted: 119 (probably recovered)

(Johns Hopkins Data)

Yes these numbers are a little skewed because the Cruise population is older, but these I feel are true numbers (100% testing).

We are getting increased numbers due to increased testing ... its linear... We can't get a clear picture until we start getting 24 hour turn on testing. Right now we are still 5-7 DAYS to turn a test..... we are looking at last week.

Full disclosure: I am in the medical field.... and am involved in our response. Yes it has the potential to be bad.... but it also has the potential to be not bad.... we just don't know.... let's be honest no one knows.... the data just is not there... yet.

Ok .... I am going back to garage porn!
Thanks Jon,

Does your source say to what extent the health care system on the cruise ship was "overwhelmed"? In other words, did everyone who needed care receive the care they needed?
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Old 03-25-2020   #35
 
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Thank you Nubie Jon for your post.

Sounds reasonable to me.

I see a lot of the talking head doctors on TV say exactly wfhat you posted. Namely let's be honest no one knows, the data is just not there .......yet.

My problem is almost every talking head news person will ask gotcha questions wanting the doctor or federale to make a date certain prediction for what ever.
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Old 03-25-2020   #36
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noahfecks View Post
Andy,
that 10% is inaccurate and everyone knows it. It's derived from a math problem where the numerator is a known and the denominator is a guess based on the most severe cases (likely less than 20% of the true number if infected). Italy has the oldest population in EU. Roughly 35% of Italians smoke, but the rate is much higher in the older generations. Parts of Italy still have sanitation systems built 2000 years ago. It's not exactly an apples to apples comparison is it? Why aren't we making comparisons to Germany where the mortality rate is .3% (likely still an overstated number)? Let's see the model using Germany's mortality rate.
Thanks Noah, Offering some background on your thoughts is helpful for me to understand your perspective. Most of what you say above is true. However,

Except for smoking Italians are generally in much better health than the US(Mediterranean diet?; Obesity rate-US 36.2%, Italy 19.9%).

Italy is not as primitive as you think. They do not have open sewers, marauding rats or clouds of mosquitoes. Besides, to my knowledge the spread of this bug is specifically not a sanitation issue.

Germany's health care system is not (yet) overwhelmed and to prevent that they are considering national lock-down if they have not already done so. I was in Germany and Austria skiing last year and I can say that their culture is in general more stand-off-ish. They tend not to treat a stranger as a long lost buddy which may be to their benefit at a time like this. By my experience, they exercise social distancing in public normally, in general(except in beer halls).

We will be very lucky if the models are inaccurate on the side of exaggerating this bugs mortality. What about the next bug? If nothing else, this kick in the ass scare the shit out of us will hopefully enact measures that make us better prepared in the future.
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Old 03-25-2020   #37
 
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Originally Posted by okieboater View Post
Thank you Nubie Jon for your post.

Sounds reasonable to me.

I see a lot of the talking head doctors on TV say exactly wfhat you posted. Namely let's be honest no one knows, the data is just not there .......yet.

My problem is almost every talking head news person will ask gotcha questions wanting the doctor or federale to make a date certain prediction for what ever.
We don't know what is going to happen to you if you run the Ledge Hole in Lava. Could be very bad, or not so bad. So, if you asked me the gotcha question "Should I run the Ledge Hole?" What do you think I'd say? What would you say in 5 seconds or less. I don't mind a bit when a knowledgeable person errs on the side of caution.
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Old 03-25-2020   #38
 
Jenks, Oklahoma
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I would say most boaters I know including me take a line that misses the ledge hole
I suggest you scout and decide your own line
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Old 03-25-2020   #39
 
Eagle, Colorado
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https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Here is my source.... Its about the best (non biased) raw data out there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoRon View Post
Except for smoking Italians are generally in much better health than the US(Mediterranean diet?; Obesity rate-US 36.2%, Italy 19.9%).

Italy is not as primitive as you think. They do not have open sewers, marauding rats or clouds of mosquitoes. Besides, to my knowledge the spread of this bug is specifically not a sanitation issue.
GeoRon, help me understand where you got this data.... Italy is very regional and in fact northern Italy can be quite "primitive" as you say, as well as having one of the worlds largest population densities and a vastly older population.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoRon View Post
Does your source say to what extent the health care system on the cruise ship was "overwhelmed"? In other words, did everyone who needed care receive the care they needed?
I am sure the cruise ship was overwhelmed since it was forced to sit pier side for days. But it seems during that time everyone received the care they needed.

Ok here is where I might be a bit jaded..... We all heard (talk about at times) the death rates of flu, obesity, heart disease, etc. How about acceptable deaths? How about when we sit in mission planning meetings and ask the tough questions of what is the acceptable death rate for this mission? 0? that's a little naive, 25000? that's a little excessive.... The point is there is somewhere in there an exceptable rate to foster mission completion.... bit extreme I know.... Let me try this way, same concept.... Pick a mass casualty, any mass casualty. As first responders we are taught mass causality triage. Some have seen the tags, some seen it in practice, its a really simple quick down and dirty way to sort through causalities. By nature it creates an exceptable loss by virtue of the available resources. Unfortunately the sensationalized 24/7 news cycle has made us all hypersensitive to this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoRon View Post
We will be very lucky if the models are inaccurate on the side of exaggerating this bugs mortality. What about the next bug? If nothing else, this kick in the ass scare the shit out of us will hopefully enact measures that make us better prepared in the future.
What is the next bug? Very good question.... Same one we asked after Swine Flu and again after H1N1.... A lot of processes and equipment came out of the H1N1 event.... some being used today and some I still question why they are not..... How about this question? What would happen with these Superbugs if society stopped asking for antibiotics for every sniffle, what would happen to outbreaks if parents would all vaccinate their children. What would happen to immunity if we would stop bathing in sanitizers on a daily basis (not talking about during this event). The truth is we as a society are doing this to ourselves, and then we expect a miracle cure.

Now for sure going back to garage porn.
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Old 03-25-2020   #40
 
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Here is a very extensive consideration of why Germany has a low death rate.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/opini...itz/index.html
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