Coronavirus Thread - Page 3 - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 03-22-2020   #21
 
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Much less "toxicity" in this forum in the EDDY than in other threads. I might have been part of the problem.

Thank you.

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Old 03-23-2020   #22
 
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THIS IS THE WEEK

Crosspost: So here's a set of modeling projections endorsed by lots of doctors and medical academics and public health professionals - the kind of folks I'd expect to know something about this stuff. It says that THIS IS THE WEEK we need to start practicing lockdown to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system (the "untreated patients dying on gurneys in the ICU hallway" scenario). Hopefully this is all overly cautious, but if it's not, it won't be very gratifying to say "I told you so" to the doubters when it's all over. It's a model, and no model is perfect, however the type of analysis this one's doing and results it's showing indicate we need to quit wasting time and start staying home now.

Click on your state to see the prognosis.

Why you must act now
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Old 03-23-2020   #23
 
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Stay Home - Stay Healthy

Washington State just announced that only essential businesses are the only ones allowed. 48 hours or preferrably less to implement. Grocery stores, banks, local/county govts to be open (remotely where possible). Ok for walks, biking along with social distancing (exercise, health and sanity). No gatherings for weddings and funerals.

Minimum of 2 weeks. I knew it was coming.

Rick
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Old 03-23-2020   #24
 
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Please note the disclaimer at the top of Andy's link





Remember the only thing that matters is acting quickly, not the accuracy of the info you are acting on. Never question, just run off the cliff with the rest.
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Old 03-23-2020   #25
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noahfecks View Post
Please note the disclaimer at the top of Andy's link


Remember the only thing that matters is acting quickly, not the accuracy of the info you are acting on. Never question, just run off the cliff with the rest.
I'll bite........
I agree 100% regarding data (not info). Where's your's to back up what seems to be the over reaction theory? I am really dumb and need continuing education.
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Old 03-23-2020   #26
 
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Start with the underlying assumptions used to make the graphs
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Old 03-23-2020   #27
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noahfecks View Post
Start with the underlying assumptions used to make the graphs

Silly me, why didn't I think of that - "just.....cuzz". Assuming that assumed assumptions are off - perfect sense.
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Old 03-24-2020   #28
 
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Here's a FB post I saw awhile back about how planning & going on river trips prepares one for a pandemic:

Quote:
Michael W. Wellman
March 22 at 12:40 PM
To the extent that there is something funny about the current situation, it's how much river trips prep one for self-isolation / home quarantine during a time of coronavirus pandemic.

1) "Wash your hands!" -- Until the last week, the most I'd heard this phrase in my life was on countless river trips. Everyone cooks and cleans on a river trip and the last thing you want is one sick person making everyone else sick. So "Wash your hands!" is a constant refrain.

2) "Do we have enough toilet paper?" -- Seriously, go on a 25 day trip with no resupply. This question will come up in every planning discussion, while doing the last minute shopping, while rigging the boats, while loading the boats, when arriving at the first camp, while setting up the groover, while tearing down the groover, and randomly throughout the day. You'll hear more conversations about toilet paper on most trips than you will about the 225 miles of whitewater between Lees Ferry and Diamond Creek (or 280 miles if you're going to Pearce Ferry).

3) "River time" -- For those who aren't working from home, welcome to "River time". Wake up when you need to, do what you need to do, go to bed when you decide to. Time has no meaning and you move to the rhythms of your world, not an alarm clock.

4) "We'll deal with it" -- One never knows what's going to happen or when on a river trip. You plan, you pack, you train, so that you can deal with whatever might come up. Bear in camp, we'll deal with it. Tree fell across the rafts, we'll deal with it. Dislocated shoulder, we'll deal with it. You're in the wilderness, you'll deal with it. We don't know what's going to happen tomorrow in the current pandemic, but whatever it is, we'll deal with it.

5) "Embrace the suck" -- You're in the wilderness. Sometimes the weather is going to be horrible. Sometimes the bugs are going to be awful. Sometimes you're going to be hurt. Sometimes someone is going to wrap their raft and soak the toilet paper and you're going to carefully string it out to dry. But you're in the wilderness. You've no choice but, as above, to deal with it. Right now, you're alive and this is what you're living. So keep doing it. Giving up isn't really an option.

6) "What are you scared of?" -- Often times folks on long, technically difficult wilderness trips are scared. I've had people at the put-in on the Grand Canyon shaking in fear. When asked why, they'd say "Lava Falls is incredibly difficult and I'm not sure what I'm going to do there". Us: "Lava Falls is 179.7 miles downstream! Do you see anything in front of you right *now* that's scary?" Them: "No" Us: "Then run the rapid in front of you and don't worry about the one downstream until it's there". We'll get to the scary stuff soon enough. In the meantime, within the limitations surrounding us, live your life and keep moving forward.

7) "Alive below Lava" -- When satellite phones were extremely expensive, trips used to send a three letter text message out: "ABL" -- Alive Below Lava! "We're alive below Lava Falls", arguably the most challenging rapid on the river, so we'll be fine from here. Society has a way to go before we're all ABL. But society will eventually be ABL.

8: "You're always above Lava" -- Excepting the 20 seconds that you're actually in Lava Falls and the brief moment that you're actually sending out ABL messages, you're actually always above Lava Falls. The instant you're done with running it on this trip, you're just prepping to run it on your next trip. We don't know what tomorrow will bring, but whatever it is, if it's hard and it has potentially negative consequences, it's just our next Lava Falls.
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Old 03-24-2020   #29
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noahfecks View Post
Start with the underlying assumptions used to make the graphs
Here are the assumptions for anyone that's interested.

Core Variable Assumptions

They've got references with them so you can see where they came from - that someone didn't just pull them out of their ass. A lot of them actually are lower than some numbers I've seen elsewhere, such as the 1.1% fatality rate, and estimating that only an additional 1% will die after reaching hospital overwhelm stage.

I've been working with computer models for over 25 years. No model is perfect for a variety of reasons and I don't know of any modelers who will say "this is exactly what will happen" However models like this are very useful for things like helping public health professionals develop planning-level estimates. Which is what this model is all about, not exactly predicting the future.
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Old 03-24-2020   #30
 
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Andy is pretty reasonable but this model takes the worst case scenarios and puts them all together for a plague level event, it's overstated. The model updates daily and the numbers on it are Waaayyy off with the reporting. It says 300K will die in NY alone but even Cuomo is only asking for 160K hospital beds. So the model is even more sensationalist than Mayor Cuomo, that's a tall order.
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