Coronavirus Thread - Page 19 - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 1 Week Ago   #181
 
MT4Runner's Avatar
 
Kalispell, Montana
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Reread the numbers.

Covid deaths are covid-only. The covid number is smaller than the covid+pneumonia, so the covid+pneumonia cannot be included in covid, or you'd have a negative number.

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Old 1 Week Ago   #182
 
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The COVID death number is smaller than the COVID, pnemonia, and influenza, but larger than the covid + pnemonia count.
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Old 1 Week Ago   #183
 
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Go up a couple pages on the CDC site and dive down into the NCHS Leading Causes of Death page. The data is all there.
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Old 1 Week Ago   #184
 
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Not sure what you mean. Other sources on the same site quote COVID deaths in the 80,000s. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
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Old 1 Week Ago   #185
 
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The date range is 2/1/20 to 5/9/20 correct? At least the table that you posted has a start date of 2/1/20.

835k - 54k = 781k. The math I think you'll find is much more complicated than that. Here is a link to the CDC page on excess deaths. In simple terms this is the difference between the number of deaths that are to be expected and the number that are actually occurring. They use some pretty complicated math to calculate expected deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

In 1900 the world average life span was 31 and currently in Sudan it's 57. We don't live in a natural world. If you're suggesting we should go back to the natural life history for homo-sapiens I believe you'll find some rather unpleasant consequences associated with that.

Respectfully, even though you haven't frankly stated so, you seem to be trying to minimize the dangers and impacts of COVID-19. I can tell you that this is not so. It is a problem and if you let it get out of hand it can overwhelm the hospital and mortuary systems. It's doesn't matter what the fatality rate is. This happened in Italy, NY and in Iran.
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Old 1 Week Ago   #186
 
Klamath Falls, Oregon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lisacanoes View Post
Not sure what you mean. Other sources on the same site quote COVID deaths in the 80,000s. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
Yes, the table is confusing. I have many questions when I look at the table. The data comes from death certificates. I have to fill out death certificate for work sometimes, so I can tell you from my experience. They usually ask you to list up to 3 causes of death. So, 1) cardiopulmonary arrest secondary to ARDS secondary to pneumonia secondary to COVID-19. As you can see the cause of death is complicated. I am assuming that's what the table represents. This person had COVID-19 on their death certificate and that one had pneumonia secondary to COVID-19 on theirs. However, they do not explain this making this table very hard to interpret.
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Old 1 Week Ago   #187
 
Denver, Colorado
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I was not able to go back to the page as you suggested.It seems like you are dismissing apx.140,000 deaths that are Covid combined with flu and/or pnuemonia[sp] as not Covid .Did they specifically state that those deaths were attributable to the other ailments not Covid ? . How do they determine the extent to which Covid may have exacerbated the other conditions and vice versa?

There was a similar controversy about the death toll in the Iraq war.The military released a ridiculously low figure 30/40 k.Then an IRB came out with a figure of 150k the Bush admin essentially called them liars.When the Red Cross said 300k they disputed it citing the IRB figure they had previously disputed.Then the well respected medical publication ,the Lancet, said a million,which may be right but was never accepted and is highly disputed.The Lancet's assessment was based on the differential in the death rate from before the war .They attributed the difference to war related causes [ like the hospitals were blown up] not just combatants we killed.So,maybe MT4's method of calculating the death toll based on the difference from before the pandemic has some merit,but it still does not resolve whether people with multiple conditions should or shouldn't be considered Covid deaths.
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Old 1 Week Ago   #188
SarahofTheWaves
 
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Lotsa data. Since our testing is poor in the US, usually impacts of pandemics are measured by excess deaths over average deaths. Typical deaths per day in US (2017) is 7,708. Rounded up to 8,000. 79 days per the above mentioned CDC chart. 79x8,000=632,000. That is 200,000 extra deaths over that time period.

Not an epidemiologist, but looks like more than normal.


https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm Where the 8,000 deaths per day came from.
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Old 1 Week Ago   #189
 
Denver, Colorado
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140k plus 54 k is pretty close to 200k...not saying all 140 k are due to Covid 19



just now they released updated totals with a nuance,,,the good news only 23 new deaths [good and only in that it is lower],,,they now refer to deaths from Covid and those caused by ''related underlying conditions'',,this may be the media not state health officials,The media are probably responsible for a lot of the confusion,but i would make allowances for their learning curve like everybody elses,,,leaning harder towards C
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Old 1 Week Ago   #190
 
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Thanks for those other links Kfalls,Sarah, and Lisa
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