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Old 03-02-2012   #1
 
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CO snowpack

As the snow has been getting steady over the past few weeks, I've been feeling much better about this upcoming season. Are we still looking at a dismal season, or could we have a decent year if the snow continues to fall?


When I look at the snotel data, I am getting the impression we are looking at a mostly average year ahead. What specific data on snotel will give the best picture about what we are sitting on?

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Old 03-02-2012   #2
 
Crested Butte, Colorado
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Most of the state is in the 80 percentile of normal snowpacks which is getting better but it still needs to keep snowing to maintain that average. If we get very little snow for the next two months the season will be short.

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports...ort=Western+US
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Old 03-02-2012   #3
 
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March and April will tell the tail. That is when we historically get the most snow.

The other thing to wish/pray for is that the spring is cold. If we get a ton of snow in March and April but have a warm spring it will melt fast and likely won't make run-offs.

NOAA's Climate Prediction graphs can give you an idea of what the experts expect.

Climate Prediction Center - seasonal Outlook
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Old 03-02-2012   #4
 
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We're still tracking at 2002-2004 levels in the Colorado Basin. Better tune up the mountain bike, because it's not going to be much of a boating season and will seem even worse since last year was so epic. I'll be making some "Mountain Bike Clear Creek" stickers this year.
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Old 03-02-2012   #5
 
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Could be worse - much of California is at 30-40% of average
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Old 03-03-2012   #6
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockinRio View Post
March and April will tell the tail. That is when we historically get the most snow.

The other thing to wish/pray for is that the spring is cold. If we get a ton of snow in March and April but have a warm spring it will melt fast and likely won't make run-offs.

NOAA's Climate Prediction graphs can give you an idea of what the experts expect.

Climate Prediction Center - seasonal Outlook
quoted for truth.

pray for a cold wet one boys and girls, we are starting to get there, but like was said. if it is wet and warm, we'll lose it fast. just like in bed.
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Old 03-03-2012   #7
 
Crested Butte, Colorado
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbuilds View Post
quoted for truth.

pray for a cold wet one boys and girls, we are starting to get there, but like was said. if it is wet and warm, we'll lose it fast. just like in bed.

Then we just start earlier
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Old 03-05-2012   #8
 
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The Ark is looking to be about 85% the graph below is a good one to see how we are stacking up. Water storage in the upper basin is looking good so the flow program should get us water until Aug 15th.

ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Sno...nplotark12.gif
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Old 03-05-2012   #9
 
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Just updated for March-May.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...olor/page2.gif
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Old 03-05-2012   #10
 
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This summer, I'll be mounting wheels on my creekboat.
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