Salt river this year? - Page 6 - Mountain Buzz

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Old 03-05-2019   #51
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 4
Just got off a three day trip, our third trip of this spring, and there were at least a dozen vehicles at both the put in and take out. It's a three hour round trip shuttle, so you might consider the shuttle just to save time. But otherwise it's perfectly safe to use the T/O and P/I lot.

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Old 03-09-2019   #52
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Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 9
Plenty of water this season
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Old 03-10-2019   #53
no tengo
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Baytopia, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1876
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Had a great trip last weekend around 3900 but just got this from Don. I like the all bets are off part.

Greetings Everybody:

Ok, The Colorado River Basin Forecast Center (CBRFC) are, like myself, often incorrect. I like to think that my incorrectness is broader, covering many more areas and aspects of life, and so, much more complete than theirs.

Sometimes they are right on the money though, and I think it is never hurts to know what their model is predicting for the next 10 days:

If your river trip launches this week, you might want to involve this in your discussion.

I agree that this could happen. The 10-day weather forecast for Alpine AZ (at 8,035 ft. and near our 8,000, and mostly 9,000 ft. snow pack) is calling for a 3-day storm which moves in the evening of the 10th snowing and then turns to rain for the whole day of the 11th. Then it gets colder and turns to snow for the next day or two.

This storm could rain off some or all of our 8,000 ft. snow, in which case, I think they are probably correct. If the storm is colder, it could still easily come up to 5,000 or more. If it is warmer and hits the 9,000 ft. snow with rain, all bets are off, maybe 80,000 or 90,000 cfs.

Different people like different water levels for boating on the Salt. My perspective is that if you have a bad run in one of the gorges on the Salt at 15,000 cfs. you could take a long swim in very cold water.

Hopefully, it starts out cold, stays that way, and adds more snow up there. If so, that will really help you people in April and May.

Heads up. Be safe out there.
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Old 03-10-2019   #54
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Golden, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1974
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 325
I spend my spring calibrating my thought processes based upon the Salt. I track it closely and track it closely using all available parameters.

ABSOLUTELY BORDERLINE, it could go huge by a shift of wet "warm" versus "cool" snow where the residual snow pack exist, which seems to be concentrated high. In Arizona/New Mexico they are called "Sky Islands"

The CBRFC forecast prognosticates peak run off from this event at about 16K but the model is biased strongly to minor fluctuations in the freezing level in this "sky island" topography. That is, most of your water is up high but perhaps most of your model is biased low in terms of regional low elevation norms.

This is kinda complex but the Salt runoff exists in a setting whereby if that "sky island" of snow pack is hit by "warmer" rain versus "cooler" snow and you are on the river about a day/day-and-a-half down stream expect to be FLUSHED. This is what Don Sullivan is suggesting.

Attached is a graphic defining current complexities, and to be frank... I don't make this shit up. If you shift model freezing elevations UP and areal temps UP slightly this model changes radically.

Defined within the yellow rectangle are the parameters that controls big flows versus f'in huge flows. CAMP HIGH AND TIE UP YOUR BOATS TIGHT THEN SIT TIGHT UNTIL FLOW RECEDES!!!!!!
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Old 03-11-2019   #55
Boulder, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1988
Join Date: Apr 2017
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Always appreciate the candor and humor from Don's dispatches. I'm just putting this out there, I pulled a 3/26 permit and happy to hook up any folks who maybe pushed off these next few weeks from their draws for what could otherwise be BIG flows on the Salt.
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