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2020 Middle Fork Hazards and Access Thread

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57K views 171 replies 52 participants last post by  50119 
#1 ·
I waited as long as I could to start this thread. I need something to check daily and a shred of hope for my 5/24 launch, so here goes.

There are obviously extra access issues and considerations this year. Ideally this thread can proceed as it has in years past with a focus on road access, flow prognostication, safety issues from the host of knowledgeable\local people that normally contribute.

With that in mind, any thoughts on potential road openings days or flows? Past year comparisons? SWE has been looking good for our launch date until the last few days. Our hopes are an open road and sub 6 ft flows for 5/24.

Also, when does the half melt prediction generally come out and where do I find it?

Thanks and stay healthy all.
 
#2 ·
There was a 6.5 earth quake approx 9 mi SE of Boundary Campground yesterday. I think a bigger question is, what is the damage to the road if any and did it kick any nasty slides off on the road? It would be nice to take a sled in but that area is also near Idaho's epi-center for Covid and under stay at home. Stanley has sent out urgent requests for all outsiders to stay away. They can't support any Covid cases out of Stanley. Wood River is at capacity.

Salmon Challis Forest District also shut down floating and basically accessing the area for Covid through 4/30.

75" of snow at Banner. SWE is 21.1. It's still winter in the area and barely going above freezing during the day at 6k.

I've also heard rumors of outfitters seriously considering whether to cancel the summer or not. Might not have as much outfitter support on getting the road open. THOSE ARE RUMORS ONLY. Don't ask me to substantiate sources on it.

So, info other than snowpack predictions online might be tougher to come by. I usually try to drive in as far as I can early in my LC with lockers and chains. Not happening this year.

I hope this all passes and people get their trips in though but might have to be patient for any intel from the ground.
 
#3 ·
I sincerely hope I'll see you there on 5/24. Got an invite on an early season permit the same day.

But I'm honestly thinking it won't happen. MT and Idaho haven't even peaked yet with COVID-19 cases. Salmon-Challis NF has closed Boundary, Cache, etc through 4/30, and I am fully expecting that gets extended.
----
Yet, I'll gladly play along.

SWE at Banner Summit is very similar to low snow years 2005 and 2015 (I was on a 5/14/15 4.0' launch). Until yesterday, SWE was holding about 18", and I was seriously hoping that we'd see low snow through March which is typically the last time it will ramp up.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?BASI1

It jumped up to 21.1" SWE in the last 36 hours, bringing it closer to an average year.

I had heard anecdotally that the road to Boundary had been open most of the winter, but 2" more of SWE in 1.5 days (and 1.7" SWE a week prior to that) is a LOT of new snow.



So...was cautiously optimistic, now more realistic and need someone on the ground to say what the road looks like.
 
#10 ·
Saw a repost of a repost...from Idaho Whitewater FB group in an Idaho backcountry pilots' group. Another post said they'd flown from Dagger to Indian. Not sure if it was the same people.

Looks pretty brown down low.


The MF snowpack went from 78% to 87% last week.
Nothing definitive from all this incomplete data, but it's fascinating to contemplate.
 

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#11 ·
May not even matter! There most likely wont be anything open. Most of Idaho parks and camping is closed through 6/31/2020? I expect that trend to be continued at this time. The whole state is getting locked down. I dout that anyone will even be checking boat launches. My guess is the river will be closed and open to poachers. Just a thought...
 
#19 ·
From Idaho Panhandle National Forest Facebook page. From what I'm hearing, this will most likely go state wide. The peek infection for idaho is currently predicted for mid to end may. That gives Idaho a month to get going.
 
#13 ·
I hate thinking about missing my launch due to COVID. Would rather miss it due to epic avalanches and landslides.

Idaho state facilities may be closed until 6/31/20.

Salmon-Challis NF is closed until 4/30 or further notice. "whichever comes first". I would highly suspect it gets extended at least through May.
 
#14 ·
Where are y’all seeing 6/31?

Update on USFS Facebook page from a fly over:
https://www.facebook.com/salmonchallisnf/


U.S. Forest Service - Salmon-Challis National Forest
1 hr ·
Middle Fork of the Salmon River Update: After the magnitude 6.5 earthquake near Shake Creek on the evening of Tuesday March 31, the Forest has had several reports on conditions on the Middle Fork Salmon River.
• Graphs from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Current Water Data for Idaho for Streamflow website, water levels at the USGS 13309220 MF SALMON RIVER AT MF LODGE NR YELLOW PINE ID station was flowing at approximately 520 cubic feet per second at the time of the earthquake. The flow dropped to approximately 308 cfs by mid-day on April 1, 2020 and then increased to approximately 712 cfs by 6:00 a.m. on April 2, 2020. Currently, the water level has begun to drop again, with the most current value of approximately 634 cfs as of 9:45 am on April 2.
• Recent seismic activity has caused a debris and rock slides along the upper reaches of the Middle Fork of the Salmon River:
o Trees and debris that may be hazardous have likely entered the river system as a result of the recent seismic activity. We have a report of a single tree is laying 90 degrees to the river just upstream from Pistol Rapids near Lake Creek to the river. This tree is almost all the way across the river. Observers indicate the tree should move with high water.
o Below Boundary Creek Boat Launch, we have reports of multiple small avalanches and rock slides which have not blocked the river.
o Above Boundary Creek Boat Launch to the to the headwaters where Marsh Creek and Bear Valley Creek converge to form the Middle Fork of the Salmon River, there are multiple large avalanches and debris slides which have caused blockages of the river. A couple of these slides have damned up the river but the river is either starting to flow around or under the slides.
The Forest is continuing to coordinating with other agencies on the conditions along the Middle Fork of the Salmon River and is continuing to investigate.
The river is currently closed to boating from Dagger Falls to the confluence with the main Salmon River.
• Use restrictions for lands and waters of the wild segment of the Salmon River and the wild and scenic Middle Fork of the Salmon River for public health & safety. The prohibitions of the order, pursuant to 16 USC 551 and 36 CFR 261.50 (a) and (b), the following acts are prohibited within the Salmon and Middle Fork of the Salmon Wild and Scenic River corridors, described in this Order, which are administered by the North Fork and Middle Fork Ranger Districts of the Salmon Challis National Forest
1.Entering or being upon lands or waters of the Wild and Scenic segment of the Salmon and the entire Middle Fork of the Salmon Wild and Scenic River areas with any float boating equipment. (see definitions, below). 36 CFR 261.58 (z).
DEFINITIONS: Float boating equipment: Any devise by which any persons(s) may be transported in or upon a body of water; such as, but not limited to rafts, boats, air mattresses, inner tubes, hard shell kayaks, inflatable kayaks, canoes, etc.
This order will remain in effect until April 30, 2020, or until rescinded, whichever event occurs first.
As this situation is changing, we will provide information when significant information becomes available.
 
#17 ·
State and County Health Departments, "trump" federal guidelines for the covid related facility/lands closures. If they want to increase the lock down times, the federal agencies have to comply and have willingly so far from what I understand.

No consistency throughout the U.S.A. is just going to prolong the pain - my opinion.
 
#27 ·
Banner's at 83% with 20' SWE today and looks like a relativley dry and warm spell coming over the next few weeks.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?BASI1

Crazy to think that storm had 3"+ of SWE in it. That's a LOT of snow.


I expect the closure for May will be issued soon. Politicians are feeling the power and control. The media eats it up. The question is really not May, but June now. I hate to place the odds for June, but maybe 50/50?
Agree, and for similar reasons. And if not for power, none of them want to be seen as the "one who didn't do enough" should they re-open things and then it goes south.

I've pretty well written off May, and thinking 50-50 for June.
Hell, this will be the first year in 13 I may not be able to run the Lochsa.
I R sad.
 
#28 ·
I went to the daily briefing at our hospital this morning to learn what is new in the coronavirus world. Idahos stay at home order is set to expire in 2 days.

over the weekend the governor had a teleconference with all the hospital CEO's in Idaho and the consensus seems to be to extend the stay at home order.

There was also a teleconference with the elected officials who are pushing to not extend the stay at home order for the sake of their communities economy. I'm guessing the health care will win out on this one and a extended closure is coming.
 
#31 ·
Spoke with a woman in the Middle Fork Ranger District office today. As of 3 days ago the governor has issued a “Rebound Idaho” 4 stage process to opening back up the state. We have a 5/20 permit and fall in line with stage 2 of the re-open plan. We are allowed to launch but must keep the group to under 10 people. So the way it stands currently, the river will re-open starting 5/16 but be under more strict guidelines than usual until 5/30. I have attached a link to the Governors plan below that the ranger’s said they will adhere to in opening up Boundary creek and the river.

https://rebound.idaho.gov/stages-of-reopening/
 
#32 ·
We have a 5/20 permit and fall in line with stage 2 of the re-open plan. We are allowed to launch but must keep the group to under 10 people.

https://rebound.idaho.gov/stages-of-reopening/
Your link says stage 2 still includes a 14 day self isolation for visitors. I am assuming that doesn't mean you get to go all the way to the put-in and start counting that as your isolation. did the feds say anything about that and did they also confirm launches must have 10 or less? thanks.
 
#36 ·
You are probably right if you look on rec gov it looks like they pulled the reservations through the 15th to match with the Idaho rebound. usfs page hasn't been updated yet. Have fun let us know how it goes.

The wild Salmon River and the Middle Fork of the Salmon River are closed to floating through May 15. All existing reservations through May 15 will be cancelled on these two rivers. As cancellations are processed, emails will be sent to those affected, and all prepaid fees will be automatically refunded.

Existing reservations beyond May 15 are still in place, but these reservations may be affected in the future. New reservations after the closure can still be created; however, these will not be eligible for roll-over consideration if cancelled at a later date.
 
#37 ·
Unsure on the self isolation part. The employee just gave me the web address to find the information but in the same breath did state that from the 16th-the end of May that the groups would need to adhere to the guidelines of groups 10 or smaller. I will get in contact with her again today, ask about self isolation, and then report back!
 
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