2019 Middle Fork Hazards and Access Thread - Page 6 - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #51
 
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salmon, Idaho
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My buddy has been shuttling a few cars to cache bar. So someone is running it, although they could be fly ins to indian.

There is a Selway permit up for Sunday right now.. and one wasted today.

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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #52
 
Morgantown, West Virginia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by codycleve View Post
My buddy has been shuttling a few cars to cache bar. So someone is running it, although they could be fly ins to indian.

There is a Selway permit up for Sunday right now.. and one wasted today.

Tell me more! From where is he picking the cars up?
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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #53
 
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salmon, Idaho
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Originally Posted by bert View Post
Tell me more! From where is he picking the cars up?
I didn't pry, we where going down river to float our day stretch and he had to run a few shuttles to cache first..

only 1 out of the seven available permits for today is still available. I believe you get penalized if you don't cancel your permit.. but maybe that is only the actual lottery season.
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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #54
 
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salmon, Idaho
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might try calling river shuttles.com and ask.
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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #55
 
Morgantown, West Virginia
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Gotcha. Thanks!
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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #56
 
boise, Idaho
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Looks like a wood shit show on Marsh right now

The MF Salmon forest service web page was updated yesterday and reported a flipped raft on Marsh badly damaged and wood moving all over. Wood as far down as Sheepeater avy shutes with an upright log spinning in the eddy below Pistol creek. heres what it says:


May 15 Boater Report - log jam about four miles downstream of the Marsh Creek footbridge. Avalanche chutes near Sheepeater continue to deposit debris across the river, sending wood, logs and trees downstream. There's a log stuck upright and spinning in the eddy behind a rock in Pistol Creek Rapid.
May 14 Boater Report - Marsh Creek group flipped a raft; it was badly damaged; avalanche chutes are spawning into the river, lots of fluctuating log jams. Also lost a kayak near Pistol Creek rapids; last seen under a log jam; kayaker injured but okay.
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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #57
 
Garden Valley, Idaho
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Loads of new snow over Banner Summit the last 24 hours, I'm sure the road into Boundary Creek got a few more inches at least.
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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #58
Dipshit with the most.
 
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Bellevue, Idaho
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Originally Posted by keithh2o View Post
Loads of new snow over Banner Summit the last 24 hours, I'm sure the road into Boundary Creek got a few more inches at least.
Hasn't been close to freezing since the 11th. SWE continued to drop this week by 5.5 inches including 3/4 inch until this morning in the last 24.

Likely getting snow now but still pretty warm at 39 degrees for snow.

Where did you get this info about lots of snow?
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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #59
 
North Powder, Oregon
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Predicting Flows Question

I'm wondering how much use the Banner Snotel site is in predicting flows. We are currently right at average SWE. Other years with similar mid-May SWE at Banner saw drops below 5ft around June 10. However, the long-term probabilistic forecast charts show virtually no chance of it being under 6 at the same time.

Obviously this is far from an exact science, but just wondering what sources people primarily use to try to make sense of it all. Or, is it a total waste of time trying to draw conclusions 3-4 weeks out? Thanks.
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Old 4 Weeks Ago   #60
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Bellevue, Idaho
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NEOR View Post
I'm wondering how much use the Banner Snotel site is in predicting flows. We are currently right at average SWE. Other years with similar mid-May SWE at Banner saw drops below 5ft around June 10. However, the long-term probabilistic forecast charts show virtually no chance of it being under 6 at the same time.

Obviously this is far from an exact science, but just wondering what sources people primarily use to try to make sense of it all. Or, is it a total waste of time trying to draw conclusions 3-4 weeks out? Thanks.

Banner Snotel shows stored energy if you will. I view the SWE as an area and to a certain extent streamflow has to match that area until the gauge melts off and then has no ability to show stored energy.

Streamflow will depend on a number of environmental factors that are beyond the scope of one Snotel site. When the snow came, moisture content and temperature of the soil and current temperatures and when the snow became isothermic.


I don't think there is much chance of it being six feet on June 10th. I am even thinking that it might not be six feet on June 1st. But my armchair weather prognostication has been wrong before.

What is the long range probabilistical forecast you refer to?
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