2019 Middle Fork Hazards and Access Thread - Page 2 - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 04-15-2019   #11
 
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salmon, Idaho
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Current image from the smiley creek airstrip.

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Old 04-16-2019   #12
 
Belgrade, Montana
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Wow, Cody that is crazy. It is gonna be a big water year this season!! Well, maybe it'll have to be a Main Salmon trip.
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Old 04-17-2019   #13
 
Bellingham, Washington
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As of today (4/17), the snowpack is up to 138% of normal SWE at Banner Summit and the 8-14 day outlook is calling for below average temps and above average precip for the remainder of April. We haven't added much to the snowpack in the past week, but since the snowpack is normally starting to drop this time of year just holding steady makes the percentage go up.

Meanwhile, the Middle Fork half melt graph has not been updated since April 9th. In that iteration of the graph, they were comparing this year to an average snowpack year. When this graph is updated again I would not be surprised to see them start comparing this year to an above average snowpack year.
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Old 04-17-2019   #14
Dipshit with the most.
 
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Bellevue, Idaho
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Not sure which 8-14 day outlook you are using but mine shows above average temps to the end of the month.

2011 is statistically very close to where we are now, but that year was very wet and cold all the way into June. Which is why Ron likely choose 2012 to compare to even though it is slightly below our snowpack level currently.

The difference in 3 to 3.5 inches of SWE is 3 days of 70+ temps or a week of 50+ on Banner anyway. So not going to affect the road that much.

In 2012 we launched on Marsh Creek on May 17th at about 7 feet on the gauge or 10K cfs. That was the second peak. First peak was on about 4/28 at 11K cfs.

So those of you are thinking this spring is going to be HUUUUGGEEE. May be disappointed. It will not be small but 138% of average with so many dry years averaged in doesn't mean as much to me as the SWE.

We did have a lot of depth of snow this year. A lot of it was considerable drier than we normally get. Which means not as much water coming out of it. We also had almost completely bare slopes virtually everywhere in central Idaho until early February. Maybe in the more protected environment of the Snotel site that won't show but it does affect runoff in that the slopes that were bare hold more water, melt off quicker and less water hits the river.

I started a spreadsheet so I don't have to keep going back to the Snotel site.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

The upshot of all this is I am likely cancelling my May 19th as I have been invited on a June 1st that I think is likely we will be able to drive in to launch.
And fishing season is open then.....

Disclaimer: I make all this shit up. But I have been correct in my guesses more than I have been wrong. 2010 with its 9.5 foot peak did surprise but that was fueled by three days of hard rain. FWIW.

Find your bliss.
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Old 04-17-2019   #15
 
Bozeman, Montana
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So last year I went through all the previous years Mtn Buzz posts to figure out when the road opened or my best guess if it wasn't completely clear and then looked at the SWE and snow depth on Banner at 4/1 and the day the road opened. Below is what I found, sorry it's not all lined up, I tried.

I'm thinking 3rd week of May for this year as long as we don't have a year like 2011 when a lot of snow came after 4/1, but a lot depends on how motivated those early season guys are.

on 4/1 Banner had 78" of snow and 28.6 SWE.

Date Road Open | SWE | Snow Depth |4/1 snow depth|SWE
5/17/2018 9.2 21 67 24.6
6/8/2017 5.5 12 95 38.8
5/15/2016 6 12 74 29.2
5/7/2015 2.5 5 31 14
5/29/2014 5 12 82 26.5
5/13/2013 5.5 10 51 20.1
5/29/2012 7 16 86 29
6/15/2011 11.5 23 81 (94 on 5/3) 28.4 (33.6 on 5/3)
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Old 04-20-2019   #16
 
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salmon, Idaho
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These pics of marsh creek just came across my Facebook

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Old 04-20-2019   #17
 
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salmon, Idaho
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.

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Old 04-20-2019   #18
 
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Steamboat, Colorado
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Quote:
Originally Posted by codycleve View Post
These pics of marsh creek just came across my Facebook
Looking pretty clear and good to go 🤔
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Old 04-20-2019   #19
no tengo
 
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Baytopia, Colorado
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Originally Posted by codycleve View Post
.

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I mean... someone thought to bring a raft and actually blow it up and launch?
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Old 04-20-2019   #20
 
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salmon, Idaho
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Lol notice the skis on the raft... said it was a raft ski trip.

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