The Ark on NPR - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 03-28-2008   #1
 
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The Ark on NPR

Ok, so maybe I'm the only dork here that listens to NPR but yesterday I caught a piece where they had a forest ranger on saying he expected the Ark to peak twice as high as last year at about 6k. He went on spouting stuff about how this would be good for the commercials etc that I really missed because I was trying to picture 6k in granite/numbers with equal parts fear and excitement. Anyone else catch this?

So is 6k realistic or wildly optimistic?

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Old 03-28-2008   #2
 
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"Rangers" love to spew like they know.. Funny... We kinda get used to it up here.. I bet this expert was a guide in Browns for maybe 2 years..

6K only if we get 3+ more storms of 2+ feet... That was what it took in 95.. I was here and can remember the winter..

4K to 4500 if we are lucky for a peak and a long flow of 1500 to 3000 is more of a reality at this point..

Who knows if the warm temps keep up and if no storms come in April we could still have a average year here on the ark..

Who knows what april will bring but if you are spewing 6k as a peak you dont know what is going on...
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Old 03-28-2008   #3
 
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6K seems a little premature to be predicting. To get that, I think we need the snow to keep falling and then be followed by a heat wave or a big rain on snow event.

Think snow!
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Old 03-28-2008   #4
 
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Chances of 6k depends on where you're at. 6k in RG, yeah, sure, could/will happen.

6k in Salida, perhaps...saw near 5k in 1995. How does the snowpack look in the collegiate peaks and near leadtown? More than 1995?

6k at Pine/Numbers? If so, the animals will be lining up in alphabetical order 2x2 if you know what I mean. Not too likely...I'll take bets.

Looking like a sicky-sicky runoff though. Psyched!

May be a long Ark season too: Aurora and Colo Spgs probably can't move their trans-basin water at high flows, and will be moving water post-runoff.

Here's how to search historical data:
CHeck the colo div of water website and find your gage:
Division

If DWR gage click published tabular data. If USGS gage click time series: daily data. You can then pull tabular data, bring it into excel and sort/analyze.

Oh, and NPR, yeah dorky. Dan Drayer = king of dorks.
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Old 03-28-2008   #5
 
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The only place the trans basin water hits a boatable section is down Lake! Good for us creekers but not too much of this water will even hit the ark..

The tunnel can run huge at all stages of runoff.. This is how Lake will get to about or over 2000 cfs this summer or why it will jump 300+ while you are on it with no warning..

From what I know most if not all of that water heads over the hills at Otero pump station.. Not much makes its way down the river..

Recreation flows start sometime in the middle of July if needed and last until the water runs out or Aug 15th.. Then they shut off any extra water comming in.. This is best for the fish..

Thats all we get...

Now if Pubelo is moving water or someone down south is movin water out of the upper lakes.. Then we will see more water in the ark..

As harv and some have said nobody who boats knows what is going to happen on the ark more than a day or two out..
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Old 03-28-2008   #6
 
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Cspgs and Pueblo pull from Otero, but do they also run trans-basin water to Pueblo Res for later exchange back to the Otero pump station?
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Old 03-28-2008   #7
 
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Wildly optimistic seems to be the consensus. Bummer.
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Old 03-28-2008   #8
 
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"Bummer." WTF? It's still going to be a great season! Probably the best in 13 years.
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Old 03-28-2008   #9
 
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I wonder if Stone Bridge could take 6000csf?
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Old 03-28-2008   #10
 
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i am not even going to begin to guess what the ark will peak at because it is way too early to guess, but I can say that I am fired up because it will be the best season we have had in awhile. Even if it doesn't snow anymore we will have a good average runoff, and after being a part of the 2002 season I will be happy with average.

As for the 6000 thing. This is what I have heard from the people who experienced the 95 high water season, which I think might of gotten to 7000 in Browns (please correct me if Im wrong). We are currently very close to where the snowpack level was in 95. However, the reason the 95 season went so big was because it snowed a bunch in April and all the way into late May.

Redneck is right... we need 6+ more feet of heavy wet spring snow through April and May to even begin to see flows like the 95 season. I'm feeling optimistic that we will at least have an average April, which will make this season an incredible one regardless of whether we see 6000.
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