Is it time to worry yet? - Mountain Buzz
 



Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
 
Old 01-09-2013   #1
 
Buena Vista, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1976
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 62
Is it time to worry yet?

Is it time to worry yet?
I feel confident in saying that last year (Water Year 2012) for the Arkansas valley was one of the four worst since the Dust Bowl. 2012 was right up there with 1977, 1981, and 2002. Guess what. So far Water Year 2013 is worse. At the moment, we are matching 2002.

Here are two charts. (OK, I can't paste the graphs here, you'll have to look it up yourself) One compares this year so far with the past 6 years and the second compares it with 1981, and 2002 the average and the maximum. (Canít get the data for í77.) This is based on Snotel sites. Some of the Snotel sites are far downstream an donít impact whitewater, but collectively they are a good measure of central tendency. The upper Snotel sites, more indicative of whatís in store for Granite and on down through Browns (for example, Bromely) are even worse that the average. If you want to play this game yourself, check out:
http://www.cpachecojr.com/cgi-bin/work/get_basin.cgi


then select Basin SWE line graphs

You can run the numbers for all the Colorado drainages and pick up to 6 years to compare on the graph. Have fun. Itís supposed to snow Friday and Saturday.

zipbak is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 01-09-2013   #2
 
CBrown's Avatar
 
Evergreen, Colorado
Paddling Since: '92
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 350
Pray for a big spring. Bring on June-uary.
__________________
"We're gonna need a bigger boat"
CBrown is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2013   #3
 
lmyers's Avatar
 
Buena Vista, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2005
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 4,769
Yes it's time to worry Zipbak. We have significantly less snow and less water stored in reservoirs than we did last year at the same time. It is going to take monster snows just to get us back up to average. Frankly I'm very concerned about our boating season on the Ark for 2013...

lmyers is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 01-09-2013   #4
 
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2010
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 265
I told my Dad that if we don't get any snow here (Colorado) then I'm spending my summer in Montana (work makes it easy that way).
Not so sure Montana will have it any better. You can kiss my 'climate change' a$$...this be global warming.
FastFXR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2013   #5
 
cadster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 614
This month's WSF from NRCS has seasonal runoff for the Ark as 50 to 70% of average:
NRCS - Colorado Snow Survey - Basin Outlook Report Summary

The Drought Outlook has Colorado in the middle of persistence:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...on_drought.gif

Across the west Colorado is the state that's the worst off snowpack-wise:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/...mal_update.pdf
cadster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2013   #6
 
Chief Niwot's Avatar
 
West of Boulder, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1998
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 683
I am not worried about boating, I am worried about fire and my well. Praying for snow! Another thing to consider is soil moisture, I know it is really low in Western Boulder County.
__________________
AJ
Chief Niwot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2013   #7
 
Denver, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2004
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 3,107
Yes. I'm concerned about the snowpack.

That site linked by the OP is a really cool one. I hadn't seen that before.

When I plotted this year, max and average and did some fiddling (south platte drainage).... it looks like if we get as much snow from today to peak pack as the max year, we could get this year back to average. Odds are its going to be another very low water year, which sucks royally.
deepsouthpaddler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2013   #8
don't bogart that
 
rpludwig's Avatar
 
Frosted Flakes N of Baytuckey, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2005
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 185
lmyers, isn't the Ark water meeting coming up? Are you going?
rpludwig is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2013   #9
LSB
Renaissance Redneck
 
LSB's Avatar
 
Huson, Montana
Paddling Since: 1988
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 1,190
Quote:
Originally Posted by FastFXR View Post
I told my Dad that if we don't get any snow here (Colorado) then I'm spending my summer in Montana (work makes it easy that way).
Not so sure Montana will have it any better. You can kiss my 'climate change' a$$...this be global warming.
44 and raining in Missoula all day yesterday
__________________
"You're gonna be doin a lot of doobie rolling when youre LIVIN IN A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER"
LSB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2013   #10
 
Durango, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1996
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 818
The issue with worrying is that it doesn't actually help. What does help is paddling all of the good runs in Colorado that have water even in dry years.
jmack is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Topic Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Ladore, any time better than other? brodie Whitewater Kayaking 6 12-30-2010 03:49 PM
First time Royal Gorge (Anyday/Time) tcb-king Kayaking | Trip Planner 2 06-05-2009 09:10 AM
Do I take the time off? yourrealdad Whitewater Kayaking 9 04-17-2009 11:47 AM
5 minutes of your time, if you could please.... aviyaker Whitewater Kayaking 3 10-04-2008 03:04 PM

» Classified Ads
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:21 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.