It seems that because of the March warm spell, snow pack doesn't tell the whole story. If you look at http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/dat...plotark04.html
, you can see that total precipitation in the Arkansas basin appears to be above average, but unforunately 35% of it has already melted. That melt is presumably in ground water and the reservoirs since the Ark hasn't started to flow yet. But, the water should contribute.
However, I expect the water boards will ignore the total precipitation and instead focus on snow pack. They'll find any excuse to declare another water shortage year.