Eastern Boater requests info - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 06-14-2004   #1
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1
Eastern Boater requests info

I am am an eastern boater considering a trip out to the Ark next week. I was concerend about the flows and anticipated that they would be higher.

Are the fluctuations - from 1000 to 2000 fairly normal? I was anticipating that flows through Browns would be holding steady, somewhere close 2000, through the third week of June.

Not being privvy to local conditions, i.e. amount of snow pack, a warmer than normal spring, the politics of dam releases, it is hard to judge the larger picture.

So, is this a normal June or are the flows receeding at this point?

Any info would be very appreciated.

Denny
[/b]

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Old 06-14-2004   #2
 
Fort Collins, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1997
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 145
I would expect the flows to be lower than average judging by the snowpack, which is also lower than average. See http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/dat...plotark04.gif.

I'm no expert, but I doubt we'll be seeing 2000 again, or if so, we won't have it for long.
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Old 06-15-2004   #3
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
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Looks like things have dropped fast after the peaks of last week, amigo. I wouldn't expect more water than what you are currently seeing.
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Old 06-15-2004   #4
 
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Distiller and Salida's Mayor, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1983
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 62
here try this

AF=(C*D/MOM-((SP*RS)*(TMF-APW)))*YWFG

AF=Ark Flow
C=current flow
MOM= mood of managers
SP= snow pack
RS=reservoir storage
TMF= trans mountain flow
APW= antero pumped water
YWFG=Your wild f**king guess
I hope this helps. Harvey if you read this I am in fri and sun for sure.
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Old 06-15-2004   #5
 
Fort Collins, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1997
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 145
I think there's an error in your equation. The "-" in front of the snowpack term should probably be a "+". And what does the D stand for?

I think I can find values for all of the variables (including YWYFG), but not MOM. Are hourly values of MOM posted on anyone's web site?

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Old 06-16-2004   #6
 
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Distiller and Salida's Mayor, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1983
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 62
sorry d stands for day of the week as this will directly effect MOM
MOM can be estimated using the weekly production estimates from Budweiser * the weekly performance of the DNR's pension fund minus acting president Bushes polling numbers.
The placement and use of any mathamatical symbols is purely random, and will not affect the equation.
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