big sur wave - Mountain Buzz

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Old 02-23-2008   #1
castle rock
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big sur wave

how much snow and warm weather will it take to get that thing running?

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Old 02-23-2008   #2
Durango, Colorado
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Isn't exactly dependent on either... it flows when they open both upstream and downstream gates enough.
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Old 02-23-2008   #3
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I've heard it just barely starts to show at 16G, is surfable (think long, fast oldschool boats) at 18G, surfable in today's boats at 22G and nirvana over 24G. Just speculation though....


Pray to the River Gods.
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Old 02-23-2008   #4
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Buena Vista, Colorado
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I always gone by the 20,000cfs it is good to go. It would be nice if it runs this year, I have not hit it since something like 97.
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Old 02-24-2008   #5
Join Date: Feb 2005
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a couple years ago some people started talking about big sur on here in january or febuary and ended up jinxing the whole snow pack. No talk about epic or good seasons till at least april or may or the angry river gods will redirect the storms and it'll never snow again.
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Old 02-24-2008   #6
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386inches and 8days of sunshine.

WTF kinda question is that?!
Devils advocate
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Old 02-24-2008   #7
Denver via GJ, Colorado
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I am with Brian. I have been in Grand Junction five years waiting for this thing to come up and a post on here always ends up cursing the whole thing. At least I've never seen it, its even harder for my friends who surfed it in 96'. They get this glazed look of euphoria in their eyes and start to wheep when they talk about it!

My current theory is in the Colorado River basin the total inches of water equivelent snow pack is almost directly proportional to the peak flow at Cameo. Currently its at 15.5 +/- inches, therefore the anticipated peak flow would be 15,500 CFS (I know timing of weather plays a factor, but if you take a look at the last five years this is fairly accurate). That means it will still take above average water equivelent snow fall to solidify its arrival, so don't mess with it . We must keep quiet!
"I plan to leisurely advance through my existence" - Terry Fuhrman 1991
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Old 02-24-2008   #8
Denver, Colorado
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Climate scientists have long recognized that talking about the weather changes the future outcome. Years of people talking shit about who has the best snow is now thought to be the leading cause of global warming. Some people call it a jinx, but others call it hard science.

A quick look back at the data shows that in 1997 the colorado at cameo peaked around 26,000 cfs, and that year the upper colorado had about 143% avg snowpack (not sure what the exact peak was, got this from the BASN report for may 1997).

In 2006, upper C basin was around 105-100% of average, and peak at colorado at cameo was around 16500 cfs.

With those two data points a rough approximation would be that you need about 125% of average in the upper colorado basin to get you to 20,000 at cameo. The roaring fork is another variable, and the roaring fork basin is having a good year so far.

For the wave to show up for more than a day, I'd guess you need about 130%+ snowpack in the upper C basin at peak.

Pray for snow for anywhere but colorado. That should jinx them pretty good and ensure that there is enough left for us.
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Old 02-25-2008   #9
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Denver, Colorado
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Originally Posted by liam dunn View Post
how much snow and warm weather will it take to get that thing running?

I did actually surf big sur back in 95 0r 96 , its been awhile, I was in a eskimo diablo and it was fairly easy to get on(boats were long back then), the flow does start out at about 22000cfs and is super fun around 23-26. I dont have flow info to give you exact, just plain old experience! hope that helps... I am in a jackson 2fun now and think it may be extremely difficult to get on with out suffient hull speed.. as I remember it being a bit tough....
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Old 03-14-2008   #10
Join Date: Mar 2004
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Catch it

When it is completely in you could catch it riding a pilates ball--the hull speed of any boat won't be an issue. Also the many features behind the front "big sur" wave are as good or better in terms of pile and retention.
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