Spring is here, and as Chief Senior Escalante Snowpack Stoke-Meister ACC has pointed out, escalante is sitting under a monster snowpack. She's gonna pop in the next few weeks, and the annual desert creekboater migration will commence.
The gaugatron 5000 oracle has been consulted and brand spanking new escalante / roubideau correlation numbers have been generated for your personal planning pleasure. The numbers have been validated by Durango Correspondent Darth Mack.
Escalante Level / Roubideau barometer gauge reading
Min = 300 cfs (200 cfs for lower gorge scrapefest)
Medium = 500 cfs. Middle boof in waterslide coming in.
Medium High = 800 cfs. The juice is loose.
High = 1000+ cfs. Desert creekin! Muddy and Floody!
Log Monster Red Alert = 1500+
Also, folks wanted levels where the falls become runnable. Last year there were multiple takers for the falls at 500ish cfs, but they looked bumpy and junky. My guess is that around 500 is a decent ballpark for when the falls starts to come in. Progressively higher flows cleaned up the falls. This analysis is based my personal "standing on bank, tail tucked between legs" observations. Others who run the falls might have more detailed beta.
For those new to the game, there is an online gauge on roubideau creek, one drainage south of escalante. The roubideau gauge has proved to be an excellent barometer gauge for escalante, clearly showing initial warm up levels rising, catching a rain event that flooded both roubideau and escalante, and following a good trend supported by visuals.
The initial correlation numbers done two years ago were too low. The reason for this (other than desk jockey error margin) was that two years of low escalante flows (06-07) were used in the original analysis. People were calling escalante high when the fin rock at 57 chevy was covered, but after two big flow seasons, most boaters would now call those flows medium. In my opinion, the 57 chevy fin is a good indicator to see if the creek is running above min flows, but the fin quickly gets covered and makes determination of med to higher flows trickier.
Here's the roubideau link... its the gauge in eddyflower too.
Here is the link to the original data with some maps etc.
The countdown has begun...