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Old 06-22-2014   #1
John_in_Loveland's Avatar
Loveland, Colorado
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Predictions/Guestimates for September MFS Level

Does anyone have any experience with early September MFS levels when the NRCS is showing the Salmon Drainage at 180% of Normal on June 22?

Any prognosticators out there with a really, really, really accurate crystal ball? We have a September 7th launch and are starting to think about logistics.



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Old 06-22-2014   #2
pocatello, Idaho
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Old 06-22-2014   #3
Wadeinthewater's Avatar
Walterville, Oregon
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MFS - Sept 7

Those that are supposed to know say 1.76. NRFC
Real adventure is only one bad decision away.
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Old 06-23-2014   #4
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Sandy, Utah
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We launch on Sept. 6, and I'm guessing 1.8-1.9. 1.9 would be sweet!
"We are all visitors to this time, this place. We are just passing through. Our purpose here is to observe, to learn, to grow, to love....and then we return home."
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Old 06-23-2014   #5
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Colorado Springs, Colorado
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I have zero experience with first hand knowledge of Idaho snowpack (so take this post for what it may or may not be worth) but have been watching the Snotel data pretty much daily for my July 20 Main trip. It seems some really funky things have been going on with the Salmon and Clearwater drainages the past two weeks and I have to wonder a little about the validity of the info this late in the snow season.

For instance, the Salmon drainage dropped below 100% for a few day a couple of weeks ago and since has steadily risen. Meanwhile other Idaho basins have gone up and then down. The Payette went from 120 to zero (the last flake melted?). Then the Clearwater went from 100 something to 594 in two weeks.

Today only Darkhorse Lake shows any significant SWE, significantly skewing the data. There's not much snow shown anywhere else except maybe some at Shadow Mtn. Meanwhile other, higher salmon basin areas are melted.

I'm thinking maybe some eyes on reports might be more accurate as to how much is really left?
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Old 06-23-2014   #6
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Bellevue, Idaho
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Originally Posted by John_in_Loveland View Post
Does anyone have any experience with early September MFS levels when the NRCS is showing the Salmon Drainage at 180% of Normal on June 22?

Any prognosticators out there with a really, really, really accurate crystal ball? We have a September 7th launch and are starting to think about logistics.


I predict there will be enough water to get down.

If you don't pay attention there will be plenty of rocks to get stuck three times between Boundary and Indian. There will also be enough rocks to get 'hung up for a second' 27 times. Time does strange things on the MF so seconds are depending on how close to the wormhole you are.

What logistics change for you depending on whether it's lightly low, medium rare low or this is bullshit low? Just curious.

And also where did you find the stats that show 180 of normal -whatever that is- for the Salmon drainage which is definitely not the MF drainage.

My take for realz. A lot of MF snow was/is sitting up high. The low elevation snowpack never really happened much and didn't last. I live 85 miles from Boundary and only snowplowed twice this winter. Elevation approx 5K. That is why it barely touched 7 feet twice this year. No big charge to the low level snowpack to melt out when it warmed up.

The good news is we did have quite a bit of snow up high and a lot of it is still there. A lot of the storms which missed where I live slid by to the North. But the real storms were even further to the north than the Middle Fork. I think Lance is a little optimistic at 1.9 but maybe. I think it will be closer to the 1.75 range.

And I don't care. I launch September 23rd and it will only be lower then. Not flying in. Do have high tolerance to pain. And I don't take the horse shoes that time of year. But I will bring the glow in the dark bocce balls and two bottles of whiskey instead of a second case of beer. Sacrifices need to be made.

If you want some help figuring out how to fly in some gear or your whole trip hit me up. I don't fly a lot, sometimes a gear or one or two people drop in September but I know all the outfits.

Good luck on sorting it out. Don't worry about things too much just yet. Pray to God we don't have fires to close the whole damn river again.

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