MF Salmon flow prediction - Mountain Buzz
 



Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
 
Old 06-22-2016   #1
 
boizee, Idaho
Paddling Since: 1984
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 184
MF Salmon flow prediction

I was asked some time ago to put together my prediction for flows this year, and now that we are in recession it is a little clearer. I modified the hydrograph from 2013 as my basis; the big unknown is base flows once we hit August.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	MF Salmon 2016 jun22.jpg
Views:	231
Size:	179.2 KB
ID:	11812  

boicatr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2016   #2
 
dirtbagkayaker's Avatar
 
Bazzaro, World
Paddling Since: 2020
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 1,367
Looks like rain on 7/30-31 ish. But how do you know that ???? Incredible. THX
dirtbagkayaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2016   #3
 
boizee, Idaho
Paddling Since: 1984
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 184
Haha we are going to be wishing for rain by then with the 100 degree temps! Green line is prediction, red line is a remnant of the 2013 hydrograph that I left behind.
boicatr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2016   #4
 
Bend, Oregon
Paddling Since: 2008
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 113
Thanks

Thanks. It looks a lot like 2013 now that most of the snow has melted and it is in the steady decline phase of runoff. Im not sure exactly, but I think the highest levels were about the same as well, around 6.5.
cmharris is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2016   #5
 
FlyingDutchman's Avatar
 
Hampden, Massachusetts
Paddling Since: 1999
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 187
http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/id/home/?cid=nrcs144p2_048137

I know this is based on old gauge data, but it certainly helps. I am dancing for rain, lots of rain... Things are getting bone dry here in Taxachusetts , everyone is crowding the scheduled dam release rivers
FlyingDutchman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2016   #6
 
elkhaven's Avatar
 
Belgrade, Montana
Paddling Since: 1991
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,714
Boicatr - I appreciate your work and you got me thinking about a few things so I made up a graph of my own today. I was really curious about a few things: 1 - how 2013 compared to last year, 2 - what things looked like after your graph and finally - where were all the data converging toward (i.e. approximate annual base flow).

I thought I'd share my graph to illustrate variability in flows. And I was intrigued by the spike in late sept 2013, I seem to recall folks talking about it, but was surprised it was that big and prolonged). It really illustrates that recession curve posted by dutchman.

So here is my effort:

Click image for larger version

Name:	June-Nov MF flows.jpg
Views:	158
Size:	670.5 KB
ID:	11825

I was pleased to see that in general low flow gage height only varies by 0.2-0.3 feet from high to low years. Obviously those tenths of a foot make a huge difference in floatability at those levels. At any rate, I'm feeling a little better about my chances for a late September trip, though not overly optimistic (there's not a lot of room for error).

Oh, last thing. The gage height is back calculated from the 2014 to 2016 shifted ratings curve. I wanted to compare discharge over the years (more accurate comparison given the changes in the ratings curve) but of course everyone discusses Salmon water in terms of gage height... so I presented it that way.
__________________
Yesterday's gone on down the river and you can't get it back. - Agustus McCrae
elkhaven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2016   #7
 
Paul7's Avatar
 
Post Falls, Idaho
Paddling Since: 2000
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 781
What caused that huge spike? Crazy storm rain or snow?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Mountain Buzz mobile app
Paul7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2016   #8
 
elkhaven's Avatar
 
Belgrade, Montana
Paddling Since: 1991
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,714
Banner summit snotel site says it rained 4" in three days (between 9/27 and 9/30). I cannot recall that long ago myself.
__________________
Yesterday's gone on down the river and you can't get it back. - Agustus McCrae
elkhaven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2016   #9
 
boizee, Idaho
Paddling Since: 1984
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 184
Good observations and good work on that chart.

2013 and 2016 do match up really well on the peak and the recession, but you'll see in this chart that 2016 had a lot more volume and the potential to have gone big...but it came off in multiple peaks instead of one big one in 2013 (which gave us more bang for the buck on a below average year).
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	mf 2013 vs 2016.jpg
Views:	99
Size:	190.9 KB
ID:	11826  
boicatr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2016   #10
 
Riverwild's Avatar
 
Salt Lake City, Utah
Paddling Since: 1997
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 45
I was on the river on a 6 day trip during that 2013 September spike. I remember it well. 6 days of non stop rain. Cramer blew out again and covered the road. I've never been so cold and wet for that long ever. We never even had a chance to dry anything out cause it just rained consistently for 6 days or more. I remember snow up in the hills above Camas Creek camp in the morning. But it did sure make the top end a breeze for a Sept trip.
Riverwild is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Topic Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
OBJ flow prediction for July 11th w/e? sward Whitewater Kayaking 0 06-26-2009 06:13 PM
Bailey Weekend Flow Prediction? Steve Kahn Whitewater Kayaking 0 08-01-2008 10:42 AM
Kern Flow PREDICTION page??? Kimy Whitewater Kayaking 4 04-09-2007 09:44 PM
Owyhee flow prediction asleep.at.the.oars Whitewater Kayaking 2 03-22-2007 05:17 PM
Poudre RocK Report and Weekend Flow Prediction Chief Niwot Whitewater Kayaking 3 07-29-2005 08:32 PM

» Classified Ads
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.