Mountain Buzz banner

Main Salmon late June/early July

17K views 37 replies 16 participants last post by  wetwildandscenic 
#1 ·
Main Salmon/Idaho Snowpack prognosticators-

Was hoping to hear the oracle's view of Main Salmon river flows for a Late June Early July trip. Have June 30 launch. This year has a huge snowpack. Any thought's on feet/CFS at Corn Creek based on how much and how fast a melt? If I take the probability forecasts from MF lodge and Main Salmon at Salmon at the 75% exceedance that's around 15,000 or 5' on the gauge at Corn Creek. Perhaps it will be higher so maybe 5.5' at Corn Creek and falling for a June 30 launch? Am I way off, even in the ballpark? How much should be added for inflows below MF lodge and below Salmon on the Main? What do you think?
Thanks
MC
 

Attachments

See less See more
2
#2 ·
I'd say you are in the ballpark for sure. It all depends on how hot it gets and for how long.

It was above 80 in Boise today but the temp is supposed to drop 30 degrees tomorrow with precipitation. It's supposed to be cooler and wetter next week.

I'll be watching this thread closely. My group launches 7/1. :D
 
#4 ·
My guess is 5-6 feet. But I'm in Utah and have no direct knowledge of Idaho conditions. I take the MS flow at Shoup and add it to the MF flow at the mouth/Shoup to get a ballpark. I generally go by the guidelines in the Eric Newell guidebook, with 2-3 feet being moderate, 4-6 feet being high, and 7+ being extreme. I'm a very conservative rafter, so around 3-3.5 is my comfortable maximum. Yes.....I'm a wuss.
 
#6 ·
I'm watching it as well. I have a June 27th Launch Date and was just looking at the NRCS snowtel prediction and I think you should be in the ballpark. I am planning on launching as long as we are 6' or so or less on the gauge.

Whiplash is my biggest concern at the higher flows due to having an inexperienced oarsman on this trip, it is his first multiday trip.

That being said it all depends on the weather between now and then, if we get an extended cool spell then the run off will slow down and drag on.

Here is the NRCS prediction I found earlier today (with link), the Red Line is the important one!:

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/basin_proj/id/salmon_swe_proj.gif

 
#7 ·
FYI

Issuing Office: Missoula
Source: National.Weather.Service
7:27am MDT, Wed May 31
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR... SALMON RIVER AT SALMON IN... CENTRAL LEMHI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IDAHO... * THE SALMON RIVER HAS REACHED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE MODERATE STAGE, 8.5 FEET, BY THIS FRIDAY. AT THE CURRENT FLOOD STAGE, SOME FARMLAND AND LOW LYING AREAS NEAR SALMON MAY BE FLOODED. * AT 8.5 FEET... A FEW HOUSES NEAR THE RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. * UNTIL 715 AM MDT WEDNESDAY JUNE 7TH PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. &&
 
#10 ·
This was posted on the Salmon-Challis National Forest Facebook page.

These photos are of the Salmon River along the Salmon River Road, approximately 1.5 miles above Corn Creek. River levels are right up to the road. Corn Creek Checkers will be working out of North Fork for the foreseeable future with 7 day a week coverage. Signs are being posted at North Fork asking all boaters to stop for permits and all recreationists to stop for high water hazard information.





 
#17 ·
The Banner SWE just intersected the average indicating the pack is coming off fast up there. I'm on the West side of the basin and saw the huge snowpack at Brundage disappear very quickly. This is nothing like 2011 when I skied top to bottom sometime around June 20th; only the very top now has snow.
The temp dropped and it snowed some this week but forecast to warm up in a few days so I would expect to see another rise in the rivers before they are done.

Regarding the changes in the Main at higher flows; a lot gets washed out and until Whiplash emerges as a beast (7+ ft) it is not so much that it is trickier but that the consequences of a long cold swim have to be considered as it loses its pool and drop quality. The highest I was on it was 5.8ft plus a little bump as we went down; that was more than enough for me. A single boater (!) was stuck on a rock in 5 mile for a long while before a group was able to rescue him; I just can't imagine being in that situation, shudder. Then there were the two rafts tied off WAY above the waterline before Elkhorn that really brought home how big it had been the week before.
 
#21 ·
Keep an eye on it lots of rain coming it will likely spike but those rain spikes don't last long. I'm a women in my 60s and I rowed it in the low 20s (extreme) very pushy for sure. The scariest was Chitam our party flipped a boat there. I think by July it should be fun you can likely run mallard on the right.
 
#23 ·
Yes, but the Banner numbers are so low it is now all over the place as slight variations make a big difference when it is 3.2 vs 1.5 average. It shot up with the last few days of cold weather. I now see 213% of average with the latest numbers. Yesterday evening the MF went seriously North again with the slightly warmer temps and probably thunderstorm rain. Urgh. Need some Intel from those East in the basin. I know there is a lot of snow on the trail for the River of No Return 108k course this weekend.

Jerry - Carvedog or other Salmon people what's the intel from your side of the basin? How do I tag people in here anyway?
 
#31 ·
Main Salmon at High Water

Hello All,
So, we have a June 28th launch and currently it seems the levels are comfortably in the "Extreme" zone of the rating sign. I haven't done this river in about 20 years and can't remember what the level was.

Anyway... wondering if there is any experienced Main Salmon runner who can give me some info on what the river is like at this level. (7ft, 26,000cfs) I know that is a lot to ask as every part is different, but are we going to be scared shitless? I've done the Grand a couple times and many other rivers, but I'm getting some butterflies looking at the guages. :)

Thanks for your help.
Matt
 
#33 ·
Matt,

I'll give you the bottom line first. If you have done the Grand a couple of times you should be fine. Whether I would go or not at this level really depends on who I had in my group, particularly whether I had kids with me and how I would feel about them swimming and/or getting maytagged in very cold, very fast water.

I ran it in 2011 with a July 3 launch (between 7.5' and 8' at Corn Creek, pretty close to where it is at today) and posted a pretty detailed report here on the Buzz which you can find with a simple search if you want more info. And there are a bunch of threads here describing high water trips.

Anyway, in summary, it's not really very technical at these levels. A lot of rapids are washed out, and there are plenty of big wave trains. There are plenty of places you can flip any sized raft at this level, but the river is so wide that it's easy to avoid most of them. The one place I am most nervous about at this level is Whiplash. When we did our high water trip I got pretty sick to my stomach just looking at it (in fairness, another boat in our group had flipped at Elkhorn, just above whiplash, and I think we were still spooked from that). We scouted Whiplash for a long time and at our levels there was a sneak on the left that turned out to be not a big deal. But I think it is a high consequence rapid at high water, say above 7' on the ramp. Below 4.5' Whiplash is nothing. I don't know what happens to it between 5' and 7 '.

The other big one is Chittam, right at the end of the trip. You can either sneak it far, far right or just take a downstream reverse ferry angle to cut across a single lateral. It's not really a hard move, and you have plenty of time to set up for it, but that would be a nasty rapid to swim at high water.

I have a June 30 launch. I hope James is right, but I think he's a little optimistic. I've been watching water levels pretty closely for a few weeks. I think the river is finally on its way down, and it can drop rapidly. I would expect you should be well below 7' by the 28th but how much is hard to say.

The Main is a great river; if I end up launching on the 30th it will be my 5th trip. Assuming weather is good (and the long-range forecast looks good) you should have an amazing trip. But Whiplash might well make you nervous at this level. Chittam will be huge, but if you've done the Grand twice you'll have seen comparable water.

I really struggled with a go/no-go decision a few years back at this level, and I am sort of struggling again this time, but that's more a function of a couple of passengers I'll have with me. But I'm sympathetic to your quandary. If you want feel free to pm me and we can set up a phone call and I'll be happy to tell you what I remember.
 
#36 ·
Great trip

We took a jet up from Vinegar on 6/30 which I'd never done before. It was nice seeing the river from that perspective but loud. It took over 3 hours to get from Vinegar to Corn. We saw some folks recovering from a flip in Elkhorn.

The weather was good, warm to hot at the end of the trip. We stayed Big Squaw, Big Mallard, Reed Creek and T-Bone. We had a small group with 4 rafts and a kayak so you can't really stay in any of the reserve able camps with a small group.

At 5.1 I would describe the river as fast, full and forgivable. We made about 9 miles an hour on the first day and Killum (very first rapid class 2) had the biggest hole by far on that day. It was pretty easy to get around stuff though. Big Mallard was huge waves, no rock. We were going to go right on Black Creek (jet ran that side) but when we got there the left was the better run. Elkhorn and Chittam were the riskiest I would say but if you can stay out of the holes on the first and make the move on the second you are good.

I would for sure go again at this flow. Hope your trip was safe and enjoyable.
 
#37 ·
We took off a few days ago. I believe it was running about 16,500 CFS at launch. Despite a month or so of anxiety at watching water levels, it was the easiest I've ever run the Main. I've run it a number of times at lower levels, and once higher (I can't remember the level, but do vividly remember the massive hole right after Elephant Rock -- unintentionally ran it after breaking an oar).

We had a few 16' rafts, and an 18'. It was much less technical than at lower levels in regard to hitting lines and avoiding rocks. Some decent sized holes and waves, but all were either hittable or fairly easy to avoid.

I took rubber, but really wish I'd taken my dory -- it would have been a perfect level for it. A friend took his, and his anxiety level was much lower than on previous (lower water) trips.

A few in our party walked down from camp and scouted Big Mallard, and we scouted Chittam. Some in our party stopped to look at Black Creek.

Bailey -- big, fun wave train. Pushy, but not horribly so.

Black Creek -- just left of center tongue was easy to hit...good waves.

Big Mallard -- we all ran right (I've always gone left before)...some rocks and holes to avoid, but fairly easy run...as we went by the big hole I thought that it looked very runnable and had some regrets about not stopping and scouting from the left side.

Elkhorn -- I ran left at the top (but you could have entered anywhere), went left of Elephant Rock (right was clear too) which was barely sticking out of the water -- easy to see with its giant pillow. Not much drama.

Whiplash -- Set up on the left side of the main current line and still had to backstroke to stay away from the right wall. Not too difficult, but did have to work a little. I heard that one of our boats bumped the wall.

Chittam -- This was the most serious rapid of our trip. You definitely would not want to flip a boat or have a swimmer if you were in the center or on the left side of the river. The pillow from the lower left wall, and the resulting short eddy that runs upstream from it, look rather dangerous. We all ran far right, breaking through the tail wave just left of a large, exposed rock on river right. Fairly easy move, but one you don't want to miss. Some of the kids in a 16' said "we almost flipped" in an eddy line after the tail line, but I didn't get an assessment from the oarsman.

Most of the other rapids were washed out, and hardly (if that) recognizable/memorable.

I'm not trying to sandbag the level. It could be serious if something went wrong. All of our oarsmen are pretty seasoned -- most were guides.
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top