You cannot simply add independent statistics like that - you have to account for the probability of winning twice, which get double counted when you add up statistics. That sounds like a good thing, but it lowers your overall odds.
A simple example - think of flipping a coin. Each time you flip the coin you have exactly a 50% chance of seeing heads. If flip the coin twice, and add up 50% + 50%, you would compute 100% odds of seeing heads in two flips, which is not true.
What you actually have to do is subtract out the possibility of getting heads twice, which gets double counted by when adding the probabilities of getting heads -> 50% + 50% - (50%*50%) = 75%
This gets even more complicated when you start adding up 3 or more probabilities in series, because you start having to add combinations back in.
Now to make it more complex, if you and your friends are applying for the same dates, the data is no longer independent, but your odds are a reflection of the overall number of entries that belong to you and your friends as a fraction of the overall number of entries in the lottery.
Yeah - it's complex. Let's not even talk about how everyone having 5 entries affects the results.
Still, for any individual entry in the lottery, I think it is a good assumption that that that entry's odds are generally (num of points) / (number of total points) for that launch, given a sufficiently large number of points. Yeah, the complexities of the lottery system might throw those odds around a few percentage points (mostly in your favor), but it should generally be a good guess.
Originally Posted by buckmanriver
What probability equation would you used based on the data available to better show probability?
A simple one is linked below:
*The numbers in this sheet and attached image are not based on actual data.
You could also add your equation to that sheet.